Thirty-five years of journal of econometrics

The paper discusses how the Journal of Econometrics started and has grown over the years. It analyzes a trend in the research areas of the published articles and reviews some of the important papers that have been published. It concludes with an assessment of the future of the journal.     

牙膏制膏机的现状及发展趋势

文章简述国内外牙膏制膏机的现状，分析牙膏制膏机采用底部均质、外循环方式、特殊搅拌器形状设计、生产过程全自动化控制的技术优势，提出该类型制膏机代表了一种技术发展趋势，具有推广应用价值。     

Trend inflation and macroeconomic stability in a small open economy

This paper estimates a small open economy New Keynesian model for Australia with positive trend inflation while allowing for multiple equilibria. We first show the extent to which positive trend inflation can shrink the determinacy region. We then conduct a Bayesian estimation over two separate periods: from 1983Q1 to 1993Q1, covering the pre-inflation-targeting regime, and from 1993Q2 to 2018Q4, covering the inflation-targeting regime. We find that Australian monetary policy before the adoption of inflation-targeting permitted multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling inflation expectations to arise, resulting in exacerbated macroeconomic volatility. The implementation of inflation-targeting in Australia in the early 1990s successfully eradicated equilibrium multiplicity and sunspot shocks, and thereby drove the economy towards greater stability.     

我国企业海外并购发展趋势与问题简析

近些年我国企业海外并购增长迅速,主要集中在北美和欧洲,亚非并购呈显良好发展势头。能源电力仍是主要并购行业。并购主体多元化,民企海外并购呈上升趋势。但我国企业海外并购以能源资源和国企为主导,易引起目的国猜忌;民企并购融资困难;国内行政审批手续复杂,国外投资壁垒较多;并购前期准备不足,并购后期整合不利。需从国家政策支持、加快发展并购相关服务、提升企业运营水平等方面促进海外并购发展。     

中国行业报营销策略研究

文中立足中国行业报现状,存在的问题及原因,提出中国行业报营销策略的研究.通过中国行业报理论的四要素阐述.根据现代市场营销理论的研究成果.把商品和服务整体地销售给消费者的一系列经营管理活动,展现了行业报面临的形势和挑战.文中针对行业报面临的形势、挑战和现状,提出了行业报的发展趋势及主要对策.     

Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)

Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so-called ARIMA-model-based (AMB) procedure is used to derive the filter. However, parsimony of ARIMA models typically implies little resolution in terms of the detection of hidden components. It would be desirable to combine a higher resolution with consistency of the structure of the observed series.We show first that for a large class of a priori designed filters, an AMB interpretation is always possible. Using this result, proper convolution of AMB filters can produce richer decompositions of the series that incorporate a priori desired features of the components and fully respect the ARIMA model for the observed series (hence no additional parameter needs to be estimated).The procedure is discussed in detail in the context of business-cycle estimation by means of the Hodrick-Prescott filter applied to a seasonally adjusted series or a trend–cycle component.     

当前高校思想政治教育工作面临的新问题及对策

当前大学生思想政治状况主流是好的，但我们也应清醒地认识到，当前大学生思想政治教育面临着许多新情况、新问题和新挑战。准确把握当前大学生思想、生活、学习态度，制定应对措施，使高校思想政治教育工作更具有实效性。     

Strategic development trend and key factors analysis of Airport City in Taiwan

In the past decade, many airports have shifted from being simple transfer ports to logistical transportation hubs and, more recently, into multi-functional airport cities. The emergence of the airport city provides evidence of advanced transportation development of a country or a region, as it serves as the impetus for national industry and a gateway to economic globalization. This paper explores the development trend of airport cities in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore as a basis for analysis of outcomes in Taiwan. Using grounded theory-based qualitative research, this study analyses and conceptualizes thirty key factors and seven trends for airport-city development via interviews with focus groups and experts. These development trends are verified by a contingency analysis with airport cities development intelligence. In addition, this study conducts an industrial matrix analysis and verb-term coding to propose action items for industrial categories in the case of Taiwan Taoyuan international airport.     

趋势性单位根过程的真实模型问题研究

本文以六个有趋势性的时间序列样本数据为例,说明绝大多数趋势性单位根过程不一定能用包含常数项或时间趋势项的单位根模型来描述,而适合的是用来描述无趋势的随机性单位根过程的模型。本文利用单位根的三个模型的分解式对这种现象做了解释,认为可能是由于随机因素的同方向作用导致的。     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.