对我国体育休闲娱乐人才培养模式的现状分析

通过查阅国内外文献资料,探寻出世界体育体闲娱乐人才培养模式的发展趋势,从而分析比较中外在体育休闲娱乐人才培养方面的异同,找出国内社会体育专业办学中的不足之处,为在社会体育专业中探索体育休闲娱乐人才培养模式.     

珠海市环保产业的发展现状与趋势分析

2010年9月,《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》正式将节能环保产业确立为国家战略性新兴产业。环保产业同时成为"十二五"期间珠海转变经济发展方式的重要支撑。本文就珠海市环保产业的发展现状进行了简要的分析,对环保产业未来的发展趋势作出了粗略的判断,并提出了促进环保产业进一步发展,提高经济发展水平的政策配套建议。     

美国对华贸易救济的新趋势及其对策

美国对华贸易救济呈现出一些新趋势,其主要表现在:对华反倾销救济数量开始回落;与此同时,对华反规避、反补贴、特殊保障措施、知识产权调查等模式逐渐兴盛,并对中国对美出口产生相当大的影响。本文立足于这一现实,探讨新趋势产生的原因及其对中国的启示。     

A reexamination of the Nelson-Plosser data set using recursive and sequential tests

The present paper applies to the Nelson-Plosser data set the recursive, rolling, and sequential tests proposed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (1992) for unit roots in the presence of mean or trend breaks. Unlike Perron's method, these three types of test endogenize the break point in the mean or trend and thus are more appealing in empirical studies. The (reverse) recursive test indicates rejection of the unit root null in industrial production and unemployment rate. The sequential test indicates that nominal GNP and common stock prices are stationary with a break in the mean.Helpful comments from G. S. Maddala and two anonymous referees are greatly acknowledged.     

半参数趋势阈值面板模型及其参数估计

半参数趋势面板数据模型在社会经济问题的实证分析中具有很强的适用性,但现有的研究中,半参数趋势面板模型考虑了时间趋势的非线性,但没有考虑政策等因素对参数的影响。本文将结构突变理论引入截面相关下的半参数趋势面板模型,并基于PPLE方法,建立了有效估计量和识别程序。通过仿真实验和实证应用,验证了对于含有突变点的半参数趋势面板模型,EPPLE方法的参数估计是有效的。     

Lq规则化趋势滤波

含有Lq罚函数的线性回归可以进行变量选择或者系数缩减,本文利用Lq罚函数的这种性质,将H-P滤波和L1趋势滤波推广为Lq规则化趋势滤波。本文研究了内在趋势是分段线性趋势（0＜q≤1）和无折点趋势（q＞1）两种假设,使用LLA方法和凸优化技术进行估计,并且提出修正的GCV准则进行调整参数选择。数值分析显示,在不同的假设下,本文提出的方法优于H-P滤波和L1趋势滤波。该方法可以有效地提取时间序列的内在趋势,也可以扩展得到其他形式的解,在时间序列分析中有着重要的意义。     

我国农村电气化建设与用电的发展趋势研究

本文首先介绍了我国农村电气化及用电的发展历程,结合发展现状及"十二五"农村电气化及用电的发展目标,分析了农村电气化建设及用电的发展趋势和特点。最后,针对新农村的电气化建设提出了相应建议。     

含结构突变的趋势平稳过程的虚假单位根研究

本文发现Perron（1989）在趋势突变情形下的结论“统计量的极限分布会随着突变点位置参数的变化收敛在0到1/2之间”值得商榷,原因在于模型设定中出现了错误,导致在结构突变的趋势平稳过程的数据生成过程下,统计量的极限分布在截距突变的情况下发散而在斜率突变的情况下退化。本文对其进行修正并补充推导了三种含结构突变的趋势平稳过程的单位根检验统计量的分布,并给出能够证实和证伪的蒙特卡洛模拟结果。     

The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets

Through the analysis of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports on 12 US traded agricultural commodities, we revisit the heated debate on the impact of index flows on commodities prices. After introducing a novel stock‐to‐use proxy that may be used to represent inventory variations at the intra‐month level, we show that speculators, contrary to index investors, are sensitive to commodity‐specific fundamental information. Their endogeneity to commodities markets hinders the estimation of their market impact. Regarding the market impact of index flows, the endogeneity problem is alleviated in two ways: first, we restrict the scope to agricultural commodities, for which index flows are more exogenous to market prices; second, we introduce two novel instrumental variables that are computed from index flows outside the market under analysis. We find that index investment flows are offset by commercial players, not speculators. The serial correlation of index flows may explain the tendency of speculators to synchronize with index investors. There is strong evidence of an index flows' impact in those commodities markets where speculative and index positions are the most correlated. The market impact of index flows is located in periods of liquidity stress, as is the correlation between speculative and index positions. Overall, our results demonstrate an impact of index investors on some agricultural prices and suggest that the synchronicity between speculative and index positions is an important determinant of this impact.     

生可生 非常生——我国人口生育发展趋势的细分化研究

低生育是后计生时期的标志性特征,在当前,我国人口生育已经进入超低生育水平阶段。与人口控制决策因素相伴随的是人口惯性的产生,因此,反映在人口总量上仍然表现为增长趋势,然而事实上,人口的低生育水平已经远远背离了生育更替水平的基本要求。值得关注的是,人口低生育的持续发展,又会给经济、社会与人口安全带来严峻的后果,为此,根据人口的不同背景,实行生育决策细分化,其中包含有差别的生育放开决策,就是势在必行之举。为此,我们总的指导思想是:生可生,非常生。