论消费需求新趋势及其对企业营销工作的影响

当今社会的消费需求呈现出不少新的特征,在需求层次、价值取向、消费手段等方面都发生了质的变化.这些变化对企业营销工作带来了许多新的问题,企业应积极转变营销观念,寻找新的营销策略.     

The generation of stock market cycles

This paper demonstrates that the relation between stock market and business cycle dynamics can be conceptualized using a dividend discount model. The interaction of changes in earnings and interest rates throughout the economic cycle are shown to cause changes in the level of stock prices. This implies that monitoring and forecasting these factors can help explain and possibly predict stock price behavior over time.     

Forecasting China's Monthly Inbound Travel Demand

Summary

China is currently expecting a growth in inbound travel demand as the result of China's “open door policy,” participation in World Trade Organization (WTO), success in hosting the Olympics in Beijing in the year 2008 and political stability. This paper focused on two issues: (1) forecasting China's monthly inbound travel demand and (2) seasonally and seasonal ARIMA model selection for monthly tourism time-series. In this paper following seasonal ARIMA models were considered: the seasonal ARIMA model with first differences and 11 seasonal dummy variables, the conventional seasonal ARIMA model with first and the fourth differences. In order to select the best forecasting model, finally both seasonal ARIMA models were compared with the AR model with fourth differences, the basic structural model (BSM) and the naive “No Change” model. In the one-step ahead forecasting comparison, the conventional seasonal ARIMA model with first and the fourth differences becomes the best forecasting model for both inbound foreign visitor demand and total visitor demand. This may be due to the nature of monthly seasonal variations in visitor arrivals, which is less marked. Our forecasts indicate that China foreign visitor arrivals and total visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 14% and 27% respectively from 2002 to 2005.     

Developing a Forecast System for Hotel Occupancy Rate Using Integrated ARIMA Models

Abstract

International tourist hotels play a consequential role in the development of the tourism industry. The occupancy rate is usually considered a pertinent indicator in measuring the performance of the hotels. This study employs the ARIMA and ARIMA transfer function model incorporated with the Box-Cox transformation function for the forecasting of occupancy rate. The results of this research find two explanatory variables strongly affect the occupancy rate: one is the numbers of tourists and the other is the Taiwan/ Japan foreign exchange rate. The forecasting shows slow rising of the occupancy rate for the international hotels in Taiwan; it will reach 64.67% by the year 2000. The forecast of the occupancy rate provides important information tor both government agencies and hotel managers so that corresponding management strategies can be made.     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.     

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance*

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross‐country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts.     

Does non-linearity help us understand,model and forecast UK stock and bond returns: evidence from the BEYR

The usefulness of non-linear models to provide accurate estimates and forecasts remains an open empirical debate. This paper examines the nature of the estimated relationships and forecasting power of smooth-transition models for UK stock and bond returns using a range of financial and macroeconomic variables as predictors. Notably, evidence of non-linearity is stronger when the bond-equity yield ratio is used as the transition variable. This ratio measures whether stocks are over (under)-valued relative to bonds and can act as a signal for portfolio managers. In-sample results reveal noticeable differences regarding the nature of relationships between the linear and non-linear setting, while results of a recursive forecasting exercise reveal both statistical and economic improvement over a linear model. Overall, these results support the view that non-linear estimates and forecasts can provide useful information for stock market traders, portfolio managers and policy-makers.     

Dating the ‘world business cycle’

By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international – or ‘world’ – recession. But what exactly is a ‘synchronized world recession’? This article proposes a practical definition of a ‘synchronized world recession’ and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a ‘world business cycle chronology’. Further, using a constructed ‘world coincident index of economic indicators’ and an associated ‘world leading index of economic indicators’, this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).     

Forecasting inflation in China

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.     

Forecasting in Short-Term Planning and Management for a Casino Buffet Restaurant

SUMMARY

Demand fluctuation accounts for an important consideration in a restaurant's daily operational decisions. Good short-term planning and management require accurate forecasts of daily demand. The objective of this study is three-fold: (1) to apply, evaluate, and compare different methods of forecasting customer counts for an on-premises buffet restaurant of a local casino in Las Vegas, (2) to describe and propose a combined forecasting approach for this casino buffet restaurant, and (3) to explore the concept of revenue and capacity management for this buffet restaurant. Eight forecasting models were tested and evaluated by two common error measures. The results suggest that a double moving average model was the most accurate model with the smallest MAPE and RMSPE. Extensive discussions on forecasting and planning/management in buffet operations are provided along with recommended future research.