The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

美国劳工组织对中美贸易关系的影响——以PNTR案和货币操控案说起

中美贸易关系历来受多种因素影响,美国国内劳工组织在中美贸易摩擦的两个典型个案中起到了一定的影响。其行动的一般规则及目的需要进一步研究及分析,从而利用这些规则来为中美贸易关系润滑,减少不利因素最终提高贸易关系成功的可能性。     

美国2011年财政研发预算重点与趋势分析

在金融危机的压力下,美国联邦政府近两年的研发预算增幅甚微,2011年仅增加0．23％,但投向基础研究的资金增幅创下近五年新高,“气候”成为继“生物医学”之后又一大战略重点。本文简要分析美国联邦财政2011年研发预算的分布及其重点,及近年来美财政对研发战略投资的趋势。     

美国次贷危机的反思:最新国际文献综述

次贷危机发生后,国际上许多学者对此进行了反思。美国次级抵押贷款市场恶化与崩溃的许多信号早在此前就能够观察得到,次贷违约及违约的可能性存在多种决定因素;次贷危机并不特殊,其实是历次危机的重现;对于如何治理这次金融危机以及防范类似危机的发生,许多学者提出了独到见解。     

试论美国海关对版权的保护及其特点

美国版权产业所取得的巨大成就与其不断完善的版权保护制度密不可分。在众多的版权保护制度中,法律的作用显然最为重要。美国现行版权法赋予了美国海关保护版权的重要职责,但是它只能对进口环节的版权提供海关保护。一般情况下,版权的备案是获得海关保护的必要条件,而在版权侵权认定问题上,美国海关不仅在版权所有人与进口商之间保持着客观中立的地位,还承担着事实认定与法律认定的双重责任。     

Geography, insolation, and vitamin D in nineteenth century US African-American and white statures

Using a new source of nineteenth century US state prison records I contrast the biological living conditions of comparable African-Americans and whites. Although blacks and whites today in the US reach similar terminal statures, nineteenth century African-American statures were consistently shorter than those of whites. Greater insolation (vitamin D production) is shown to be associated with taller black and white statures and a considerable share of the stature difference between US blacks and whites was attributable to insolation and vitamin D production. Black statures increased during the antebellum period, while white statures declined. Black and white statures both decreased after the Civil War. Farmers were taller than workers in other occupations, and an alternative explanation for stature variation by social class is considered.     

The Prospects for European Bank Concentration in Light of Recent US Experience

ABSTRACT

Recent United States experience is used to draw implications for European bank concentration. The basic hypothesis is that US concentration is driven by the need to internalise risk reduction activities and that this is done by creating an internal market comprising multiple financial activities. A similar process seems to be at work in Europe after the Single Market Act and the various European commission directives have made it possible for banks to operate across national boundaries. That there has been little EU cross-border merger activity suggests additional impediments. One is the absence of a single EU regulatory agency that limits the benefits of expanding activity across borders.

RESUMEN. La reciente experiencia estadounidense se está utilizando para determinar implicancias para la concentración de los bancos europeos. La hipótesis básica es que la concentración de los EE.UU. está siendo impulsada por la necesidad de internalizar las actividades de riesgo y que esto se logra creando un mercado interno compuesto por múltiples actividades financieras. Un proceso similar parece haberse puesto en marcha en Europa después de la Ley del Mercado Único y las diversas disposiciones emitidas por las comisiones europeas han permitido a la banca operar en transacciones transfronterizas. El hecho que hasta el momento haya habido pocas operaciones de fusión a través de las fronteras de la Unión Europea sugiere la existencia de impedimentos adicionales. Uno es la ausencia de una agencia única de la Unión Europea que limite los beneficios de expandir estas actividades a través de las fronteras.

RESUMO. A recente experiência americana é usada para verificar as implicaç[otilde]es da concentração bancária européia. A hipótese fundamental é de que a concentração americana tem sido conduzida pela necessidade de internalizar as atividades de redução de risco e que isto é feito através da criação de um mercado interno que envolve múltiplas atividades financeiras. Um processo semelhante parece estar acontecendo na Europa, a partir da Lei do Mercado Único, e as diversas comiss[otilde]es diretivas européias, que possibilitaram aos bancos operar através das fronteiras nacionais. O fato de ter havido poucas fus[otilde]es internacionais sugere a existência de outros impedimentos. Um deles é a ausência de uma única agência reguladora da União Européia, que tem limitado os benefícios da atividade de expansão entre as fronteiras dos países.     

The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US

This article provides out-of-sample forecasts of linear and nonlinear models of US and four Census subregions’ housing prices. The forecasts include the traditional point forecasts, but also include interval and density forecasts, of the housing price distributions. The nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive model outperforms the linear autoregressive model in point forecasts at longer horizons, but the linear autoregressive and nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive models perform equally at short horizons. In addition, we generally do not find major differences in performance for the interval and density forecasts between the linear and nonlinear models. Finally, in a dynamic 25-step ex-ante and interval forecasting design, we, once again, do not find major differences between the linear and nonlinear models. In sum, we conclude that when forecasting regional housing prices in the United States, generally the additional costs associated with nonlinear forecasts outweigh the benefits for forecasts only a few months into the future.     

政府公务员与企业职工工资比较方法研究——基于美国联邦政府的案例分析

随着社会经济水平的提高，公务员的工资水平也需要及时进行调整。由于公务员工作性质的特殊性，其工资调整机制必须综合考虑多方面情况进行慎重论证。美国政府通过采用公务员与企业职工工资水平进行比较的方法对公务员工资进行调整，经过实践证明是具有可操作性的方法。文章在充分研究美国政府公务员工资调整机制的基础上，结合目前我国公务员工资调整中存在的问题及难点，提出我国政府管理者在制定公务员工资政策时需要参考的方面。     

中美居民财产性收入比较及启示

在居民财产性收入问题上，国内有一流行的说法：国民富裕程度越高，居民财产性收入占比也越高。通过对中国和美国统计居民财产性收入的概念、口径、方法及结果的探析，发现上述观点并不成立，考察发现，中美各有统计居民财产性收入的口径和方法，只有作同口径}匕较，才有意义。