人力资源价值评价研究

本文在分析了近年来讨论较多的几种人力资源价值计量模式后,通过问卷调查,找出最能影 响制造业企业四类人员价值的因素,对这些因素进行加工处理后,得到一个评价人力资源价值的参考值。     

Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.     

Accounting regulation, inertia and organisational self-perception: Double-entry adoption in a Spanish casa de comercio (1829-1852)

This paper analyses the influence exerted by compulsory mechanisms and cognitive and social factors on the adoption and implementation of double-entry bookkeeping. The study focuses on a small, commercial and family owned company located in Spain in the period 1829-1852. As our main conclusion we suggest that the adoption of double-entry bookkeeping in 1851 was influenced more by the managers' self-perception as traders, and the belief (internal and environmental) that the company must employ an accounting method appropriate to its new commercial status, than by State pressures derived from the enactment of a new accounting regulation in 1829.     

SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置测量不确定度的评定方法

简要介绍了建立SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置的必要性及原理框图。详细论述了其测量不确定度的评定方法。并对标准装置的测量不确定度进行了验证。     

论市场所有权

本文作者首次在国内外提出了市场所有权理论，作者认为，过去我们对企业微观产权（包括有形产权和无形产权）研究较多，而忽视了对这些微观产权赖以存在的基础和实现条件－－市场产权的研究。实际上，市场本身也有一个产权界定及其制度安排问题，本文在界定产权概念的内涵，本质与功能的基础上，认为市场产权由狭义市场所有权，市场使用权（经营权），市场占有权和市场收益权等四个要素构成，认为市场产权具有五个方面的基本特征；市场所有权的稀缺性，市场所有权的准资本属性；市场所有权的排他性；市场经营权的可转让性；市场所有权收益的可计量性等，市场产权具有三种基本形式；市场国家所有制；市场区域共享制；市场全球共享制等，虽然市场市场产权天生具有国家排他性，归一国政府所有，但市场经营可以转让，各种贸易战的实质是争夺市场经营权，控制权和收益权，区域经济一体化和经济全球化是市场经营经营权的有限互换和交叉分享。     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

The Original Maturity of Corporate Bonds: The Influence of Credit Rating,Asset Maturity,Security, and Macroeconomic Conditions

We examine the determinants of the new issue maturity of corporate bonds. As credit rating decreases, new bond issues have longer maturities, but substantial variation in maturity within each rating class remains. We seek to explain the variation of new issue maturity within credit classes. We find that asset maturity, security covenants, and macroeconomic conditions influence the new issue maturity of bonds within rating categories.     

Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation

A detailed analysis of the Least Squares Monte-Carlo (LSM) approach to American option valuation suggested in Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is performed. We compare the specification of the cross-sectional regressions with Laguerre polynomials used in Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) with alternative specifications and show that some of these have numerically better properties. Furthermore, each of these specifications leads to a trade-off between the time used to calculate a price and the precision of that price. Comparing the method-specific trade-offs reveals that a modified specification using ordinary monomials is preferred over the specification based on Laguerre polynomials. Next, we generalize the pricing problem by considering options on multiple assets and we show that the LSM method can be implemented easily for dimensions as high as ten or more. Furthermore, we show that the LSM method is computationally more efficient than existing numerical methods. In particular, when the number of assets is high, say five, Finite Difference methods are infeasible, and we show that our modified LSM method is superior to the Binomial Model.     

The implications,challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies

Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science for FS remain somewhat opaque. This paper explicitly sets out the challenges for FS that arise from six complexity science concepts: (1) irreversibility of time (2) path dependence 3) sensitivity to initial conditions (4) emergence and systemness (5) attractor states (6) complex causation. The discussion highlights the implications of these challenges for FS tools such as horizon scanning and weak signals, and sets out the benefits of overcoming the challenges to create an explicitly complexity-orientated FS. The discussion concludes with a set of questions summarising the challenge for FS from complexity science with the aim of stimulating a discussion as to how they can be met. The concluding remarks make some initial suggestions in this regard.     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.