International income-shifting regulations: Empirical evidence from Australia and Canada

This study examines market reactions to two different approaches to reduce income shifting in an international setting. The two methods are described and event studies are performed using stock market data from Canada and Australia. Samples of companies from both countries are partitioned into firms predicted to be affected versus unaffected by each country's event. Australia's regulation taxes profits arising in low-tax subsidiaries at Australian rates. Canada's method defines acceptable transfer prices (arm's-length transactions) and describes enforcement and audit policies. We find evidence of stock market reactions on some of the event dates for Australian and Canadian firms affected by these two approaches.     

A time varying parameter approach to the Chinese aggregate consumption function

China experienced a number of economic, political and social upheavals in the pre-reform period, together with a gradual transformation from a centrally-planned to a market oriented economy in the post-reform period. Given this background of extensive change, a time varying parameter (TVP) consumption model for non-durables is developed in order to determine the resulting changes in consumer behaviour caused by both observable and unobservable factors. The parameters of interest are the short and long run marginal propensities to consume (MPC) and the long run average propensity to consume (APC). The model is based on Friedman's permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The empirical results suggest that the TVP model is a good representation of the changes in Chinese consumer behaviour over time. In terms of forecasting, the TVP model generally outperforms a number of alternative models.     

Tax perceptions and the demand for public expenditure: evidence from UK micro-data

Using responses from the 1995 British Social Attitudes Survey (BSAS), this paper assesses if there is evidence of voter misperception of tax costs. We find convincing evidence of income tax (IT) and value added tax (VAT) misperceptions, with a systematic bias towards overestimation of tax burdens for VAT, contrary to predictions of the fiscal illusion literature. We then integrate tax misperceptions into a model of demand for public expenditure. Voters' spending preferences are strongly related to their incomes, actual tax costs, and other fiscal-related household characteristics. A tendency to overestimate tax burdens appears to have only a modest influence on demands for public spending.     

中国商业银行流动性过剩的成因与潜在风险分析

中国经济中的流动性过剩广泛存在于商业银行并以国有商业银行为主.过于依赖利息收入.对非利息收入业务开发缓慢或者受到限制,是中国商业银行存款相对过剩的根本原因.缺乏信用风险定价能力不能充分行使存贷款利率定价自主权、商业银行全面实施股份制改造、外资银行进入和外商直接投资持续大规模流入及骨干企业产能资金双重过剩等因素,是引起中国商业银行流动性过剩的直接原因.存款相对过剩会降低银行经营利润,恶化其资产风险构成.深度开放商业银行经营范围,在强化市场管理机制的基础上提高商业银行特别是国有商业银行的经营自主权,以及进一步发展股票市场,改善外资经济结构等.有助于缓解中国商业银行存款过剩压力.     

转移支付缩小中国收入分配差距的效果分析

理论分析和经验检验的结果表明:20世纪90年代OECD国家转移支付规模变动与基尼系数变化有较强相关性,中央财政加大转移支付力度,鼓励地方财政增加福利性支出,有助于缩小因市场机制导致的收入分配差距.1995年以来中国的转移支付缩小收入分配差距的效果不明显,完善中国转移支付制度、加大转移支付力度有利于缩小中国收入分配差距.     

中国股票市场泡沫测度及其合理性研究

基于剩余收益模型对1993～2006年年初A股市场泡沫进行了测度,并根据对美国股票市场泡沫分析结果,研究了中国A股市场泡沫合理性问题.结果表明,长期以来中国A股市场的内在价值保持相对稳定,而股票价格却频繁大幅波动,且股票价格严重偏离内在价值,市场中的泡沫成分较多;股价指数及市盈率指标对股价泡沫大小的揭示能力非常有限;中国A股市场的泡沫多数属于超常泡沫,但自2001年开始的股市调整使市场中的泡沫得到有效释放,至2006年年初,市场泡沫已经回落到正常水平,2006年大牛市行情的启动在很大程度上应归因于市场调整后投资价值的显现.     

Finance,income inequality and income redistribution

Using a panel fixed effects model for a large sample of countries covering 1975–2005, we test the hypothesis that income inequality caused by finance (financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises) is related to more income redistribution than inequality caused by other factors. Our results provide evidence in support of this hypothesis. We also find that the impact of inequality on redistribution is conditioned by ethno-linguistic fractionalization. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of several control variables suggested by previous studies.     

企业所得税收入归属机制研究

实证分析显示，1994--2005年我国省际人均内外资企业所得税收入分布差异既超过其对应税源分布差异，也超过全部税收收入分布差异。在我国现行财税体制下，尤其在“两法合并”实行法人所得税制之后，应当坚持税收归属与税收来源一致性原则，以“分支机构全面预缴、总机构汇算清缴”为基本模式，以“总机构统算应税所得、按比例进行分配、总分机构分别申报纳税”为补充模式，建立科学的地区间企业所得税收入归属机制。     

中国城镇居民的住房支付能力：1991—2005

我国早有关于住房支付能力的讨论，以世界银行1992年的著作作为我国使用房价收入比概念起点的观点不合史实；跨国房价收入比数据一般不具可比性，也不存在国际惯例或国际警戒线；房价收入比用于衡量住房支付能力，重要的是其变动的走向，而不只是某年的具体数值。本文计算了我国1991-2005年的房价收入比，用以衡量城镇居民购买新建商品住房的支付能力，发现：我国房价收入比整体上有所下降，但从2003年起又上升；房价收入比具有明显的区域特征。表现出东部趋升、中西部趋降的态势，上海、北京的房价收入比较高，北京和西藏的房价收入比波动较大，各省市间房价收入比的差别呈减小态势。     

FDI对长三角制造业收入差距影响的实证分析

跨国公司对外投资的区位不平衡性影响着各地区的经济发展差异,是否也是形成地区内行业间收入差距的重要原因?文章利用长三角地区两省一市的数据,以制造业为例,运用固定效应模型对长三角地区外资对制造业收入差距的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,长三角地区外商直接投资的行业分布对其制造业收入差距起到了缩小作用,而外贸和内资则起着拉大收入差距的效果。