Fear of Floating and Pegging: A Simultaneous Choice Model of De Jure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries

We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies.

中部地区特色经济发展策略分析———来自潜江龙虾产业的实证经验

中部地区发展特色产业是发挥地区资源优势,塑造经济增长极,实现中部崛起的重要战略举措。湖北潜江龙虾特色产业给中部特色经济的发展带来了需要科学定位打响品牌,形成品牌效应,开拓国内外市场等诸多的启示。     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

政治体制上端改革:反腐败斗争的迫切需要

我国的反腐败已经进入了一个特殊的高原期,能否实现政治体制上端的重大改革,是决定中国反腐败能否实现突破的关键。政治体制上端改革要坚持三个不动摇、发展党内民主、完善人民代表大会制度和改革政党制度,可以建立"廉洁岛"式的政治特区。     

基于区位优势的西宁地区发展特色经济的对策思考

特色经济就是在遵循区域经济发展规律的前提下,依托比较优势,以技术创新或特色工艺为支撑、以特色优势产业为载体,通过市场竞争而形成的绿色、高效和富有自身特色的经济发展方式。本文通过研究如何利用区位优势以及当地的资源优势,促进各种生产要素的有效配置,不断提升当地特色优势产业发展,从而形成极富区域特征的特色经济发展格局,促进西宁地区特色经济发展。     

Exchange Rate Pegs, Fiscal Policy and Credibility

In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark, which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.

市场结构、意外利润税与可耗竭资源的最优开采——以我国原油特别收益金为例

本文以我国原油特别收益金政策为例,分析了意外利润税在不同市场结构下对可耗竭资源开采的价格路径、最初价格和社会福利的影响。以Hotelling的社会福利最大化的可耗竭资源价格路径作为评价基准,分析说明通过合理设定基准价格和税率水平,能保证在不同市场结构中实现社会福利最大化,据此作为我国原油特别收益金政策效果的理论依据。     

Central Bank Independence,Political Regimes,and the Sacrifice Ratio: A Replication Study of Caporale and Caporale (2008)

A recent article by Caporale and Caporale (2008, this Journal) provides an important finding on the determinants of the sacrifice ratio: central bank independence is not a determining factor for the sacrifice ratio when political regimes and other factors are controlled for. Our replication study shows that their result is driven by errors in the data. With correct data, it can be found that central bank independence is positively and significantly correlated with the sacrifice ratio, even when the nature of the political regime is controlled for.     

Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through

Abstract

The appropriate exchange rate regime, in the context of integration of currency markets with financial markets and of large international capital flows, continues to be a policy dilemma. It is found that the majority of countries are moving towards somewhat higher exchange and lower interest rate volatility. Features of foreign exchange (forex) markets could be partly motivating these choices. A model with noise trading, non-traded goods and price rigidities shows that bounds on the volatility of the exchange rate can lower noise trading in forex markets; decrease fundamental variance and improve real fundamentals in an emerging market economy (EME); and give more monetary policy autonomy. Central banks prefer secret interventions where they have an information advantage or fear destabilizing speculation. But in the model discussed in this article, short-term pre-announced interventions can control exchange rate volatility, pre-empt deviations in prices and real exchange rates, and allow markets to help central banks achieve their targets. The long-term crawl need not be announced. In conclusion, the regime's applicability to an EME is explored.     

关于中国建立显性存款保险制度的必要性论证和若干建议——基于金融危机背景和国外经验的探讨

以金融危机下国外存款保险制度的应对经验入手,结合隐性存款保险制度的缺陷进行分析,论证了中国建立显性存款保险制度的必要性并提出若干建议。首先介绍存款保险制度的基本理论,国外存款保险制度的发展概况,接着分析国外存款保险制度在金融危机中发挥的作用,以此提出中国在目前建立存款保险制度的必要性,最后就金融危机下国外经验给予的启示和中国特殊国情提出若干建议。