Are European sovereign bonds fairly priced? The role of modelling uncertainty

This paper examines the extent to which large swings of sovereign yields in euro area countries during the debt crisis can be attributed to fundamentals, focusing on the inherent uncertainty in bond yield models. We show that the outcomes are strongly affected by modelling choices with regard to i) the confidence bands for the model prediction, ii) the assumption whether the model coefficients are similar across countries or not, iii) the sample selection, iv) the inclusion of financial variables and v) the choice of time-varying coefficients. These choices affect the explanatory power of macro fundamentals and the extent of mispricing.     

Value creation in capital waterway projects: Application of a transaction cost and transaction benefit framework for the Miami River and the New Orleans Inner Harbour Navigation Canal

Waterways have many more ties with society than as a medium for the transportation of goods alone. Waterway systems offer society many kinds of socio-economic value. Waterway authorities responsible for management and (re)development need to optimize the public benefits for the investments made. However, due to the many trade-offs in the system these agencies have multiple options for achieving this goal. Because they can invest resources in a great many different ways, they need a way to calculate the efficiency of the decisions they make. Transaction cost theory, and the analysis that goes with it, has emerged as an important means of justifying efficiency decisions in the economic arena. To improve our understanding of the value-creating and coordination problems for waterway authorities, such a framework is applied to this sector. This paper describes the findings for two cases, which reflect two common multi trade-off situations for waterway (re)development. Our first case study focuses on the Miami River, an urban revitalized waterway. The second case describes the Inner Harbour Navigation Canal in New Orleans, a canal and lock in an industrialized zone, in need of an upgrade to keep pace with market developments. The transaction cost framework appears to be useful in exposing a wide variety of value-creating opportunities and the resistances that come with it. These insights can offer infrastructure managers guidance on how to seize these opportunities.     

Performance of the different RAROC models and their relation with the creation of economic value. A study of the largest banks operating in Brazil

This article approaches several different methodologies for calculation of the RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital) for Brazilian banks. Two questions gave reason to the study: whether the application of different methods for calculation of the RAROC would generate significantly different results?, and checking what is the connection between the RAROC and the generation of economic value, measured by the EVA (Economic Value Added), for the largest banks with operations in Brazil? The following methodologies for verification of the RAROC were applied: Buch’s Method (2011); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006) with application of the VaR technique; Saunders’s Method (2007); Chapelle’s Method (2008); and the Smithon & Hayt Method (2001), by applying these parametric and non-parametric statistics in order to check the sensibility of the differences between models. This study has evidenced that, when we compare the methodology based on minimum capital with other methodologies, there are no significant differences, except in the few cases indicated. It is important to notice it only occurred in the case of the Bank of Brazil and it was concentrated in the comparison of the Creditmetrics models and in the methodology in which there is equivalence by the reference equity.     

The lead-time reliability paradox and inconsistent value-of-reliability estimates

The value-of-reliability (VOR) reflects the savings in inventory-system costs from more reliable (less variable) lead times. Previous studies have revealed that more reliable, but positively skewed, lead times could actually increase optimal safety inventory when the probability of satisfying all demand during a replenishment cycle drops below 70%. Researchers claim that this paradox affects most firms and that it explains the inconsistent VOR estimates found in the transportation economics literature. Our investigation reveals that firms interested in high product availability may safely ignore the paradox and that less lead-time variability consistently increases VOR, the paradox notwithstanding.     

Empirical validation of Metcalfe’s law: How Internet usage patterns have changed over time

Few doubt that Digital Information Networks (DINs) such as the Internet constitute the basis of a new technology-driven economic era. A large body of literature tries to understand and quantify the value of DINs to help policy makers justify investments in new or improved infrastructures. The prevailing methodological approach is to depict DINs as an observable production input changing the uncertainty regarding the performance of an economic system. In such context, the value of DINs is typically measured with regression techniques between the penetration rate of DINs and economic growth. This approach provides too little insight on the actual causality between DINs and economic value. We recently developed a framework that identified 13 different ways (“capabilities”) how users convert information into economic value. In this article, we show how a simple quadratic relation (Metcalfe’s law) can be used to quantify how adequate these capabilities are in converting the ability to access information into economic value. To our knowledge, this is the first time that Metcalfe’s law is empirically validated as such.     

Co-creation of value at the bottom of the pyramid: Analysing Bangladeshi farmers' use of mobile telephony

Existing literature offers scant evidence of how BoP (bottom of the pyramid) consumers with limited product knowledge and interaction with product designers and marketers can co-create value. The current paper addresses this issue by analysing Bangladeshi farmers' use of mobile telephony. The findings suggest the value-in-use is facilitated or inhibited by product features, socio-economic practices, individuals' capabilities and the appropriation of mobile telephony. The paper demonstrates how BoP customers can co-create value with or without direct support from marketers and offers a theoretical framework for the co-creation of value and contributes to the current understanding of BoP market dynamics.     

Airline daily fare differentiation in a medium-size travel market

This paper examines variation in airline fares for trips in a medium-size travel market. It develops a conceptual model of fares offered, and uses daily information about fare, plane and flight characteristics, and trip characteristics easily available on the internet. Based on this information it estimates a two-way fixed effects model of airline fares. The results show large differences in fares among the airlines, large variation in daily fares offered, and provide evidence of fare differentiation in the travel market analyzed.     

Magic pelagic — An agent-based simulation of 20 years of emergent value accumulation in the North Atlantic herring exchange system

This paper presents an empirically-based simulation of an industrial network modeled as an exchange system. It uses a multi-agent simulation model to test for how variations in uncertainty of the input resource and how the changing demand patterns affect the accumulation and distribution of exchange values in the system as a whole. The empirical material is a case study of an industrial network connecting herring supply with demand. This particular network comprises two separate but related sub-networks, identifiable based on the origin of the herring as coming from either Norwegian or Icelandic catchers. While both target the same potential customers in terms of wholesalers and retailers and ultimately European and Asian consumers, they are distinct in their internal organizing aspects. The results indicate that certain types of internal organizing are more adaptive to changes in conditions and are better suited to absorb these changes. The paper contributes to both a theory and method emphasizing the modeling of emergent nonlinear patterns of networks.     

基于面板模型的中国国债风险溢价实证研究

该研究采用面板模型实证分析了2003年12月至2008年4月上海证券交易所债券市场国债风险溢价与利率期限结构及宏观经济变量的关系。实证结果显示，上期利率期限结构曲线越陡峭，当期国债风险溢价越高；上期通货膨胀水平越高，当期国债风险溢价越高，而再延长一期滞后期，会发现滞后第二期的通货膨胀水平与当期国债风险溢价存在显著负关系；货币供应同比增速增加时，国债风险溢价水平降低。     

死亡率性别差异对终身寿险纯保费的影响分析

利用《中国人寿保险业经验生命表(2000-2003)》的数据,定义一个纯保费性别比率(PR)函数,分析死亡率性别差异对终身寿险纯保费性别差异的影响。对于同一年龄不同性别的投保人,预定利率越高,PR值越大;在不同的预定利率下,PR值差异随着投保人年龄的增加而先增加后不断缩小,PR值随着投保人投保年龄的上升而下降。