比较与借鉴:企业业绩价值评价研究

随着技术的进步和经济的发展,顾客的需求不断变化,技术创新不断加快,产品生命周期不断缩短,市场竞争日趋激烈。传统的绩效评价指标系统已不能满足现代企业的管理需要。本文首先分析近年来国外出现的新的业绩评价指标体系及其在中国的应用情况,而后探讨中国现有的评价指标体系优缺点及其改进方向。     

Fiscal expansion, monetary policy, interest rate risk premia, and wage reactions

We examine the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy in a small open economy, with emphasis on the interactions between fiscal, monetary and labour market policies. The paper uses the NBNZ-DEMONZ macroeconometric model. Novel features of the model are that it includes an endogenous interest rate risk premium (IRRP), and forward-looking monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions which capture the essence of New Zealand's Reserve Bank and Fiscal Responsibility Acts. The most important empirical result is that the postulated IRRP, proxying financial market mechanisms, can contribute at least as much as the monetary policy reaction function to maintaining price stability. Also of significance are that an income tax cuts package shows more damped real GDP and underlying inflation paths than does an expenditure increases equivalent; and that the inflationary and real sector impacts of a personal income tax cut package depend heavily on how the cut is `shared' between firms and workers. The nature and interdependence of monetary and fiscal policies and labour market conditions are therefore crucial to the macroeconomic outcomes.     

中国钢铁产业链各环节附加值的国际比较

运用有差异的技术复杂度指数,以世界十大钢铁生产大国作为研究对象,分别测算了这些国家的钢铁产业链上可贸易品的技术含量和不可贸易品的技术含量。比较结果显示,中国钢铁产业的出口技术附加值一直低于世界平均水平,德国、意大利和美国等发达国家的钢铁产业出口附加值高于世界平均水平。中国、印度、巴西、乌克兰和俄罗斯等发展中国家钢铁产业下游的制造业的技术附加值较低,而美国、日本、德国、韩国和意大利等发达国家钢铁产业下游的制造业的技术附加值较高。     

国有产权、人力资本错配和全要素生产率损失

本文在H-K要素错配测算框架的基础上,将人力资本生产要素引入企业生产函数,并突破了原有模型规模报酬不变的约束条件,对1998-2013年间中国135个工业行业的人力资本错配程度及其TFP损失进行了测算,结果发现:(1)在生产函数中引入人力资本生产要素后,我国90％以上的工业行业呈现规模报酬递减特征;(2)整体来看,我国...     

Computing value at risk with high frequency data

We compare the computation of value at risk with daily and with high frequency data for the Deutsche mark–US dollar exchange rate. Among the main points considered in the paper are: (a) the comparison of measures of value at risk on the basis of multi-step volatility forecasts; (b) the computation of the degree of fractional differencing for high frequency data in the context of a Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model; and (c) the comparison between deterministic and stochastic models for the filtering of high frequency returns.     

我国商业银行操作风险模拟估计

本文利用极值理论和蒙特卡洛模拟相结合的方法对我国商业银行操作损失整体分布进行估计。首先根据均超函数图估计出恰当的阈值,利用假设检验估计超阈值的发生强度,用广义帕累托分布估计了超限参数。采用模拟方法分别对超阈值的发生强度和损失强度进行拟合,得到年度超阈值损失分布的估计。低于闲值的分布采用统计方法获得发生强度和损失强度的分布。两者结合得出一定时期内操作风险总分布,并得出一定时期内的操作风险资本金。     

跨文化交际中中西方价值观差异对比研究

中西方由于自然环境、历史条件和思维方式的哲学基础等差异使得不同的社会群落形成了不同的价值观。研究价值观在不同民族所体现出来的差异性,帮助英语学习者增强文化的差异意识,提高跨文化交际的能力。     

中国上市公司并购绩效EVA回报率评价

市场经济的发展带动了中国企业的并购热潮。本文运用修正了的EVA指标对1998年至2000年发生并购行为的213家上市公司进行了实证分析,通过跟踪其并购前到并购后三年为股东创造价值的能力的变化,发现中国上市公司在进行并购后往往绩效下滑,使其股东遭受到财富的损失。     

The political economy of agriculture for development today: the “small versus large” scale debate revisited

The role of agriculture in economic development and the development politics of promoting smallholder versus large‐scale agriculture have both been at the center of a long‐lasting and controversial debate. Using an innovative methodology which combines a value chain approach with input‐output‐analysis, the growth multipliers and productivity of both farm types in Guatemala are analyzed. Results show that smallholder agriculture has the same potential to stimulate output growth as large‐scale agriculture. Smallholder value chains include mainly informal sectors and create more jobs than commercial agriculture. Therefore, a reorientation of agricultural and land policies toward small‐scale food producers and within a comprehensive policy of integrated rural development is not only necessary in terms of social equity but also for boosting economic development.     

农户风险偏好下的土地经营权拍卖报价研究——以浙江省嘉兴市农村土地经营权流转为例

研究目的:探究农户不同风险偏好的土地经营权拍卖报价特征,为构建供求均衡的流转价格机制提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:运用拍卖理论,构建土地经营权流转拍卖报价模型,并通过嘉兴市调查数据分析机会成本与拍卖报价、风险溢价之间的关系。研究结果:(1)随着保留价范围的扩大,农户机会成本与拍卖报价之间的相关性变得显著,并使得高机会成本农户参与农村土地经营权流转;(2)保留价范围扩大时,农户总体上表现为风险爱好程度逐步降低,而风险规避程度逐步增加的趋势;(3)仅当保留价为固定值时,机会成本与风险溢价差值之间的相关关系不显著,而当保留价范围扩大时,两者呈显著正相关,且相关系数先增加后减少,并在保留价范围等于30%时达到最大值。研究结论:农村土地制度改革实践中,可运用拍卖报价机制并通过设置适当的保留价范围,以达到供求均衡,推进农村土地经营权流转。