Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析——以陕西省电力消费为例

运用经济计量方法,实证了陕西省城市化与能源消费之间的动态相关性,并利用因素分解模型定量测算出陕西城市化对能源消费变动的贡献份额.结果表明,陕西省城市化与能源消费量之间存在协整关系.但这种长期均衡的短期调整幅度不大;现阶段城市化对陕西能源需求的贡献作用尚比较小.且呈现逐年下降的趋势.因此,能源需求不会成为制约陕西省城市化进程中的瓶颈.     

Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China

This paper presents a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO₂ emission in China for the period 1991-2006 divided into three equal time intervals. The complete decomposition method developed by Sun is used to analyze the nature of the four factors: CO₂ intensity, energy intensity, structural changes and economic activity. The results show that economic activity has the largest positive effect in CO₂ emission changes in all the major economic sectors and China has achieved a considerable decrease in CO₂ emission mainly due to the improved energy intensity. However, the impact of CO₂ intensity and structural changes is relatively small. Structural changes only exhibit positive effect to the CO₂ mitigation in agricultural sector, and CO₂ intensity also contributes to the decrease of CO₂ emission in transportation sector. Moreover, a formula about CO₂ mitigation is presented in this paper, which shows that China has made a significant contribution to reducing global CO₂ emission.     

技术差距视角下我国不同性质企业创新效率研究

本文利用共同前沿理论和DEA模型测算分析2005~2010年我国不同性质企业技术创新效率差异、损失来源以及影响机制。结果表明：考察期内我国企业创新效率整体水平偏低,还有42.1%的提升空间,纯技术效率和规模效率均不高。共同前沿下效率值均不超过群组前沿下效率值,TGR值显示,外资、港澳台资与内资企业的技术差距均位于0.2~0.4,且存在差距继续扩大的风险。不同性质企业效率损失根源存在显著差异,港澳台资和外资企业效率缺失主要受制于落后的企业管理水平;内资企业则因生产技术差距和管理不当所造成的效率损失均占有一定比例。企业性质、企业规模、市场竞争程度和政府金融支持对效率提升具有积极影响,企业规模在政府金融支持与效率关系中起负向调节作用。     

An analysis of real-estate risk using the present value model

The current study uses a present value model that allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process to decompose real-estate risk. The study finds that the variance ofunexpected returns accounts for most of the total risk with cash-flow risk accounting for twice as much of the unexplained real-estate risk although discount rate risk is also an important factor. This dominance of cash-flow risk is found to result in a weaker mean reversion process for real estate relative to stocks. Another finding is that real estate investors tend to become apprehensive about the future when news on future cash flow is good, and thus they demand higher expected future returns.     

Internet Job Search and Labor Market Outcome

This study examines the effect of the use of internet job search (IJS) on individual wages. The data utilized in the study are obtained from the Internet and Computer Use Dictionary in the Current Population Survey of September 2001 and October 2003. An Oaxaca Decomposition is used to examine the extent to which wage differences are influenced by IJS. The results show that accessibility to the internet is a crucial factor in the decision of an individual to utilize the internet for job search activities. However, no clear evidence exists that IJS increases individual wages. Additionally, the study also demonstrates that IJS is subject to self-selection bias. Thus, failure to control for self-selection bias results in a very serious bias in estimation.     

科学合理性的建构与解构

科学到底有无合理性是科学哲学的一个核心问题。从古希腊开始,对科学合理性的探讨与争论经历了几种不同的流派,但都只是对科学合理性的一鳞半爪式的理解。这其中的主要原因是以往的探讨都存在着人为上的对科学合理性的分割理解,将本来共处一个整体的合理性分解为对某一合理性层面的解释,这种还原主义最终导致了合理性地位的动摇。从各个流派对科学合理性的不断建构与消解进程中可以看到,作为科学合理性的一体两面的科学工具理性与价值理性应该是更进一步把握合理性问题的努力方向。     

欧盟REACH法令对中国化工产品出口的影响分析

欧盟REACH法令的实施将促进我国化学工业的发展,但在短期内会导致我国出口欧盟化工产品和进口化工产品成本上升,降低出口产品竞争力,部分产品甚至退出欧盟市场,其他国家可能纷纷效仿欧盟,引起连锁反应。应对该种技术性壁垒,我国政府和行业协会应加大宣传REACH法令的力度,加快国内相关立法,推进国内实验室的GLP认证工作。另外,化学品生产企业应提高自身产品质量,做好化学品注册的可行性分析和预注册工作。     

Economic growth, international trade and air pollution: A decomposition analysis

This study analyzes the impact of economic growth and international trade on the level of air pollution. This is done by the estimation of the Structural Equation Model with two factors describing the structure of economic activity and air pollution intensity. It is further assumed that there is causal link between these two factors and that they are influenced by per capita income, international trade intensity and the Freedom House Index.The estimation results suggest that in the developing countries analyzed both international trade and per capita income lead to changes in the structure of economic activity and - as a consequence - to the increase in air pollution. In addition, the estimation results suggest that the impact of economic growth on air pollution intensity varies between the developing and developed countries. In the developing countries, this impact occurs through the change of the structure of economic activity, while in the developed countries, this impact is mainly direct and occurs through the sum of the scale effect and income effect. The positive sign of this impact suggests the dominance of the scale effect over the income effect.     

小企业会计制度与税务制度差异研究

由于企业会计制度与税务制度所规范的对象和目的不同,会计核算和税务核算之间始终存在着一定的差异。小企业会计制度在会计核算原则、会计假设、会计方法、会计政策及会计实务等方面都与现行的税务制度存在着较大的差异,而这些差异会导致国家税源的流失,造成纳税调整增多,并容易引起征纳双方的纠纷,甚至不能正确地确认纳税人权益,也给企业避税创造了机会。本文建议,应加快我国税收制度的改革,减少小企业会计制度与税务制度的差异,确保小企业会计核算的准确性,并能依法纳税。