认购权证与标的股票间的价格相关关系实证研究

为系统分析我国认购权证市场与其标的股票市场间的价格相关关系，发现权证市场与股票市场间的联系。本文以12组样本认购权证目收盘价和标的股票的目收盘价为观测对象，运用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型（VECM）、Granger因果检验和Hasbrouck方差分解方法，考察了两个时序数列间的长期均衡关系、短期动态关系、Granger因果关系和两市在价格发现功能中作用的大小、反映信息的效率，得出了研究结论。     

Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition

This paper is a re-examination of the benefits and limitations of decomposition and combination techniques in the area of forecasting, and also a contribution to the field, offering a new forecasting method. The new method is based on the disaggregation of time series components through the STL decomposition procedure, the extrapolation of linear combinations of the disaggregated sub-series, and the reaggregation of the extrapolations to obtain estimates for the global series. Applying the forecasting method to data from the NN3 and M1 Competition series, the results suggest that it can perform well relative to four other standard statistical techniques from the literature, namely the ARIMA, Theta, Holt-Winters’ and Holt’s Damped Trend methods. The relative advantages of the new method are then investigated further relative to a simple combination of the four statistical methods and a Classical Decomposition forecasting method. The strength of the method lies in its ability to predict long lead times with relatively high levels of accuracy, and to perform consistently well for a wide range of time series, irrespective of the characteristics, underlying structure and level of noise of the data.     

基于相对剥夺理论的基尼系数子群分解方法研究

度量收入差距最常用的统计指标是基尼系数,但是由于基尼系数在按群组分解时的问题使得应用中受到许多限制,因此本文把相对剥夺理论引入基尼系数的子群分解中,得到了一个新的基尼系数子群分解公式,分解公式使群内差距和群间差距具有相同的形式,而且不仅能够计算高收入子群对低收入子群的相对剥夺,还能计算低收入子群对高收入子群的相对剥夺。并利用天津市2008年城镇居民住户调查数据进行了实证分析。     

Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS

We offer new evidence on earnings volatility of men and women in the United States over the past four decades by using matched data from the March Current Population Survey. We construct a measure of total volatility that encompasses both permanent and transitory instability, and that admits employment transitions and losses from self employment. We also present a detailed decomposition of earnings volatility to account for changing shares in employment probabilities, conditional variances of continuous workers, and conditional mean variances from employment entry and exit. Our results show that earnings volatility among men increased by 15% from the early 1970s to mid 1980s, while women's volatility fell, and each stabilized thereafter. However, this pooled series masks important heterogeneity in volatility levels and trends across education groups and marital status. We find that men's earnings volatility is increasingly accounted for by employment transitions, especially exits, while the share of women's volatility accounted for by continuous workers rose, each of which highlights the importance of allowing for periods of non-work in volatility studies.     

The hedging effectiveness of constant and time-varying hedge ratios using three Pacific Basin stock futures

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of Australian, Hong Kong, and Japanese stock futures markets. The traditional hedge and the minimum variance hedge ratios are all constant whereas the bivariate GARCH hedge ratio is time varying. The effectiveness of the hedge ratio is compared by investigating the out-of-sample performance of the three ratios. The whole sample consists of weekly returns from January 1990 to December 2000. Two 1-year, out-of-sample periods are used: January 1999 to December 1999 and January 2000 to December 2000. Results show that the time-varying GARCH hedge ratio outperforms the constant ratios in most of the cases. This is true using both out-of-sample periods.     

基于动态计量模型的青海省域经济增长实证分析

青海作为西部大开发中增长相对较慢的省份，其经济增长的问题与切入点如何，文章运用Eviews5．0统计软件，根据协整理论将对拉动经济增长的消费、投资、进出口三大马车与青海省的经济增长进行了实证研究。结果表明加快与社会主义市场经济相适应的各种制度的改革，引导消费，扩大需求，继续加大投资是当前加快青海省经济增长的着眼点。     

A Study on the Indian Information Sector: An Experiment with Input-Output Techniques

It is widely recognized that rapid changes in information technology (IT) are bringing about major structural changes in the economies of the world. Information flexibility, product quality and fast response are the key factors for global competition and IT plays a critical role in these areas. Policy-makers in industrialized and developing countries view IT as a critical infrastructure to enhance their access to global knowledge, markets and capital. These views--of IT as infrastructure and as core capability for development--resonate with India's aspirations to modernize its infrastructure, transform its industry and join the global economy. Realizing the huge potential of the Indian IT industry, we make an attempt in this paper to study the extent of informatization in the Indian economy during the period 1983-84 to 1989-90 and try to identify the information intensive sectors. This paper also studies the sources of growth of the information sectors of India during 1983-84 to 1989-90 with the help of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA).     

城镇劳动力市场雇佣关系的演化及影响因素

本文利用跨度为二十年(1988年到2007年)的微观家计数据,分析了我国城镇地区雇佣关系在经济转型时期从单一固定工向多元灵活雇佣关系转变的过程。将我国城镇地区的雇佣关系分成四种类型,探讨了雇佣关系构成从1988年到2007年的变化及其影响因素,以及各种因素的相对重要性。分析发现,从1988年开始,我国的雇佣关系构成中灵活雇佣比重开始逐步上升,到2002年,短期雇佣、无合同雇佣等灵活雇佣形式的比重达到一个较高水平,进入2007年,稳定雇佣关系的比重略有回升。扩展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解所得结果表明,从1995年到2002年,劳动力市场灵活性增强主要受到转型过程中制度变迁等不可观测因素的影响;进入2007年,稳定的雇佣关系比重略有回升,放松管制和市场深化的效应逐渐释放殆尽,特征变量对提高雇佣稳定性的作用开始显现。     

同时开市背景下AH股的股价联动性分析

文章选取57支A+H股票编制开盘价指数和收盘价指数,以2011年3月7日为分界点分为两个阶段,对A股和H股的股价之间的联动性,采用计量经济学方法进行实证研究。研究表明:同时开市之后A股和H股的股价联动性有所增强,H股股价对A股股价的影响更加明显。