The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

Do oil tariffs lower wages?

An oil tariff has potential to alter the pattern of production and income distribution across productive factors. This paper use a general equilibrium model of production and trade with inputs of capital, labor, and international energy to examine the effects of an oil tariff. Under a range of conditions, higher energy prices created by oil tariffs would lower the ratio of wages to capital rents, and production of labor intensive goods would fall. This paper concentrates on the potential of oil tariffs to alter patterns of production and income distribution.     

Improvements onthe Earnings Forecast Model——Based on Correlation between Financial Ratio, Auditor Opinion and Future Earnings

This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.     

How different are the regional factors of high-tech and low-tech start-ups? Evidence from Japanese manufacturing industries

This paper analyzes regional determinants of the start-up ratio in the Japanese manufacturing sector. A major contribution of this study is the comparison between high-tech and low-tech industries. The empirical results using a sample of 253 industrial districts suggest that business density, weight of the manufacturing sector, and the average business size significantly influence the start-up ratio in both high-tech and low-tech industries. Distinct differences between these industries were found with regard to the effects of human capital, research institutes, and the weight of high-tech industries.

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

价格涨跌幅机制对市场波动及换手率的影响

文章调查了价格限制机制对股票价格波动以及市场流动性的影响。首先刻画了实行价格涨跌幅限制后股票价格的变化特征,研究价格限制机制对股票价格波动的影响;随后在考虑延续冲击效应因素的基础上,通过对引入价格限制机制后投资者总成本的考察,研究了该机制对市场流动性的影响。文章结论认为,股票价格涨跌幅限制机制的引入,将增加股票市场的波动性,并且会导致投资者心理所能承受的潜在收益、损失量减小,使投资者更加频繁地买卖股票．从而增加市场换手率,进而提高整个市场的流动性。     

浅谈如何提高汽车的燃油经济性

目前,绝大多数汽车都是消耗燃油的,随着汽车保有量的增加,汽车消耗的燃油占石油产品消耗量越来越大,如何减少对石油产品的消耗,节约石油资源已成为举世瞩目的问题,而且从汽车使用的单位和个人角度来讲,降低燃油的消耗也是至关重要的,因此,我们有必要分析一下影响汽车燃油经济性的因素及提高汽车的燃油经济性的措施。     

Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria

This article analyzes the use of model selection criteria for detecting nonlinearity in the residuals of a linear model. Model selection criteria are applied for finding the order of the best autoregressive model fitted to the squared residuals of the linear model. If the order selected is not zero, this is considered as an indication of nonlinear behavior. The BIC and AIC criteria are compared to some popular nonlinearity tests in three Monte Carlo experiments. We conclude that the BIC model selection criterion seems to offer a promising tool for detecting nonlinearity in time series. An example is shown to illustrate the performance of the tests considered and the relationship between nonlinearity and structural changes in time series.     

On the natural selection rule in general linear models

We consider a problem of selecting the best treatment in a general linear model. We look at the properties of the natural selection rule. It is shown that the natural selection rule is minimax under to “0–1” loss function and it is a Bayes rule under a monotone permutation invariant loss function with respect to a permutation invariant prior for every variance balanced design. Some other condition on the design matrix is given so that a Bayes rule with respect to a normal prior will be of simple structure.     

The information content of the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation forecasts

In this article, the inflation forecasts produced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and that generated by private forecasters, are used to assess whether the Reserve Bank possesses information about inflation that the private sector does not have. The results show that the Reserve Bank inflation forecasts embody useful predictive information about inflation, beyond that contained in private forecasts, over the recent inflation targeting period.