经济周期定期方法与研究进展

经济波动一直是宏观经济分析与预测中的经典问题,而经济周期拐点的及时识别对政府前瞻性经济政策的制定和企业投资经营战略的调整具有重要意义。鉴于我国目前尚没有权威机构对经济周期进行实时监测和发布,因而在划分经济周期和拐点识别时,往往局限于一种方法,不同方法有效性的比较缺乏一个基准参考。文章对国内外研究经济周期及其周期拐点定期的方法进行梳理和分析,依据经济周期定期方法的研究脉络,对主流的方法进行评述,并对我国经济周期定期进行展望,希望能在分析中国宏观经济波动特征和经济走势预测方面提供一些方法论参考和借鉴。     

腹部带血管蒂皮瓣转移修复手外伤皮肤缺损的临床疗效

目的探讨腹部带血管蒂皮瓣转移修复手外伤皮肤缺损的临床疗效。方法选取我院2012年2月至2014年2月收治的80例手外伤皮肤缺损患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析,将其分为两组。观察组患者使用腹部带血管蒂皮瓣进行修复,对照组患者使用手指掌侧推进皮瓣进行修复,观察两组患者治疗效果。结果观察组40例患者皮瓣全部成活,对照组患者皮瓣成活37例,观察组优于对照组(P<0.05);外形恢复满意度方面,观察组患者满意度为97.5%(39/40),对照组患者满意度为70.0%(28/40),其中对照组患者有2例出现轻度臃肿,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论腹部带血管蒂皮瓣转移修复手外伤皮肤缺损的疗效明显,患者满意度高,外形恢复完整,具有较高安全性。     

Uncertainty,Learning and International Environmental Policy Coordination

In this paper we construct a simple model of global warming which captures a number of key features of the global warming problem: (i) environmental damages are related to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (ii) the global commons nature of the problem means that these are strategic interactions between the emissions policies of the governments of individual nation states; (iii) there is uncertainty about the extent of the future damages that will be incurred by each country from any given level of concentration of greenhouse gases but there is the possibility that at a future date better information about the true extent of environmental damages may become available; an important aspect of the problem is the extent to which damages in different countries may be correlated. In the first part of the paper we consider a simple model with two symmetric countries and show that the value of perfect information is an increasing function of the correlation between damages in the two countries in both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria. However, while the value of perfect information is always non-negative in the cooperative equilibrium, in the non-cooperative equilibrium there is a critical value of the correlation coefficient below which the value of perfect information will be negative. In the second part of the paper we construct an empirical model of global warming distinguishing between OECD and non-OECD countries and show that in the non-cooperative equilibrium the value of perfect information for OECD countries is negative when the correlation coefficient between environmental damages for OECD and non-OECD countries is negative. The implications of these results for international agreements are discussed.     

内部薪酬差距合理性与会计盈余相关性——来自中国上市公司的经验数据

文章基于2006-2012年我国上市公司高管和员工薪酬数据,对企业内部薪酬差距的合理性进行了分析,得出我国企业内部薪酬差距逐渐扩大,内部薪酬差距不合理性凸显的结论。通过采用实证分析的方法,发现会计盈余对企业内部薪酬差距合理性的影响。企业内部薪酬差距合理性可能由经营活动现金流量净额以及总应计共同影响,总应计又分为操控性应计和非操控性应计。经营活动现金流量净额正向影响企业内部薪酬差距合理性;操控性应计项目负向影响薪酬差距的合理性;而非操控性应计对企业内部薪酬差距合理性的影响并不显著。文章研究结果表明,企业进行盈余操纵时,损害了内部薪酬差距合理性,应该充分利用企业内控制度和外部独立审计对企业盈余操纵进行有效监督,进而维护企业内部薪酬差距合理性。     

Income inequality, democracy and growth reconsidered

Persson and Tabellini (Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1992a. Growth, distribution and politics. Eur. Econ. Rev. 36, 593–602; Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1992b. Growth, distribution and politics. In: Cukierman, A., Hercowitz, Z., Leiderman, L. (Eds.), Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 3–22; Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1994. Is inequality harmful for growth? Am. Econ. Rev. 84, 600–621) as well as Alesina and Rodrik (Alesina, A., Rodrik, D., 1992. Distribution, political conflict, and economic growth. In: Cukierman, A., Hercowitz, Z., Leiderman, L. (Eds.), Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 23–50; Alesina, A., Rodrik, D., 1994. Distributive politics and economic growth, Q. J. Econ. 109, 465–490) have argued that income inequality reduces economic growth rates among democracies because it promotes distributional struggles. In this paper I question the supportive evidence for a number of reasons. Measures of income distribution and democracy are unreliable and permit only very tentative conclusions. Changes in data sources or recoding of some influential cases affect results. It is questionable whether equality effects on growth apply only within democracies, as a median voter interpretation of this relationship should make one expect. The general idea that distributional struggle hurts the growth prospects of nations, however, receives some empirical support.     

会计准则国际趋同问题研究:回顾与展望

文章系统回顾了国内外关于会计准则国际趋同的概念、路径、策略及其影响的研究成果,明确了相关研究对于评价我国会计准则国际趋同路径与策略选择的参考价值,指出我国会计准则国际趋同问题进一步研究的重点方向与研究的理论和现实意义。     

高职商科学生职业意识培养的途径探析

职业意识是职业素质的重要组成部分,商科高职院校要将职业意识、职业道德和职业能力的培养与教育放在同等重要的位置,通过专业和课程改革,加强教师职业素养,强化实践教学培养学生的职业意识。     

浙江出口商品结构竞争力实证分析

全球金融危机引发的国际市场需求萎缩恶化了浙江的出口贸易环境,进一步使浙江出口商品的结构问题显现出来。分析了后危机时代浙江出口的总体情况、浙江出口商品的结构及浙江出口商品竞争力发展趋势。并对如何优化浙江出口商品结构提出了对策建议。     

《中庸》之“中庸”三维度释义

《中庸》之＂中庸＂持久而深刻,它是以正确性为内在精神,以恰当与适度为标志,以事物整体和谐、实现矛盾协调为目标,是振荡中维持平衡的过程及其＂得中＂这一瞬间之表象。它具有中庸之道（原则）、中庸之德（品德）、中庸之法（方法）三维度之义：既是哲学范畴,也是伦理学说,并代表了一种思想方法;既是事物运行的客观形态,又是儒家的世界观、人生观,还是＂折两用中＂的方法论。     

我国工业化过程与电力消费弹性系数演变过程的相关性

本文首先论述了电力消耗与经济发展过程的一般规律、电力消费弹性系数的演变规律和我国电力消费弹性系数的演变过程,然后分析了我国工业化过程与电力消费弹性系数演变过程的相关性,最后概括了主要结论并且提出了两个需要思考的问题。研究发现,由于我国正处于重工业化时期,电力消费弹性系数明显地大于1,而且第二产业耗费电力能源的比例持续上升。