Investment Dynamics with Information Costs

Investment in physical capital at the microlevel is infrequent and large, or lumpy. The most common explanation for this is that firms face nonconvex physical adjustment costs. The model developed in this paper shows that information costs make investment lumpy at the microlevel, even in the absence of nonconvex adjustment costs. When collecting and processing information are costly, the firm optimally chooses to do it sporadically and to be inactive most of the time. This behavior results in infrequent and possibly large capital adjustments. The model fits plant‐level investment rate moments well, and it also matches some higher order moments of aggregate investment rates.     

Optimal investment of an insurer with regime-switching and risk constraint

We investigate an optimal investment problem of an insurance company in the presence of risk constraint and regime-switching using a game theoretic approach. A dynamic risk constraint is considered where we constrain the uncertainty aversion to the ‘true’ model for financial risk at a given level. We describe the surplus of an insurance company using a general jump process, namely, a Markov-modulated random measure. The insurance company invests the surplus in a risky financial asset whose dynamics are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion. To incorporate model uncertainty, we consider a robust approach, where a family of probability measures is cosidered and the insurance company maximizes the expected utility of terminal wealth in the ‘worst-case’ probability scenario. The optimal investment problem is then formulated as a constrained two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the insurance company and the market. Different from the other works in the literature, our technique is to transform the problem into a deterministic differential game first, in order to obtain the optimal strategy of the game problem explicitly.     

实体企业金融化对其生产性投资影响的理论与实证研究——以中国1383家上市制造业企业为样本

以中国上市制造业企业2007-2018年的面板数据为样本,研究实体企业金融化的动因及其对生产性投资的影响.结果表明,实体企业金融化与相对收益率和相对风险显著相关.同时,实体企业金融化对生产性投资既存在挤出效应,也存在风险对冲效应,且这两种效应因企业所有权和规模不同而有所差异.其中,相比于国有企业和大规模企业,非国有企业和小规模企业的金融化投资对生产性投资的风险对冲效应相对较大,但仍小于挤出效应.进一步综合来看,实体企业金融化虽能缓解企业面临的整体风险,但对企业价值的影响却不显著,而且不同流动性的金融化投资均对企业价值没有显著影响.     

云南大健康产业可持续发展路径分析与思考——基于产业投资视角

大健康产业是21世纪最具发展潜力和经济可持续发展带动效用的新兴产业,近年来随着中国的大健康产业的发展,对此产生了多种概念和认知.从产业投资视角对大健康的概念进行研究和归纳分类,梳理大健康产业生态和发展现状,通过统计数据结合实证经验剖析云南大健康产业发展面临的问题.在此基础上,在生物医药、健康服务、健康地产3个具有基础优势的产业领域提出实施路径和发展建议,以提高云南大健康产业的可持续发展能力.     

Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?

China's current account surplus declined significantly from its peak of nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2018. The new pattern offered fresh evidence for our understanding of China's current account dynamics. In this paper, we used flow of funds data to gauge its underlying driving forces. Specifically, by employing index decomposition analysis, we decomposed the current account from the perspective of savings and investment into three sectors: the household, corporate, and government sectors. We found that the decline in China's current account ratio was first driven by cyclical factors, i.e. weak corporate saving growth induced by the economic slump in 2009 as well as the following massive corporate investment bolstered by the government stimulus plan. However, such cyclical factors quickly subsided, and the subsequent current account balance reduction was later supported by structural factors, i.e. household savings declined enduringly and the Chinese government switched to a more expansionary fiscal policy. There are three possible explanations for the structural movement: reduced precautionary saving due to higher social security coverage ratio, lower corporate profits as a result of economic slowdown, and a twin deficit due to the government's more relaxed fiscal stance. The new facts, however, were not consistent with other current account theories focusing on long‐term aspects of the saving–investment account puzzle, especially those relating to China's special demographic characteristics.     

城镇国有土地制度、土地投资与城镇经济发展

研究目的：考察城镇国有土地制度如何影响微观城镇用地主体的土地投资行为,进而影响城镇经济发展。研究方法：基于一个发展的两时期投资决策模型进行理论探究。研究结果：（1）具有“稳定性制度预期”的城镇国有土地制度能吸引微观城镇用地主体的土地投资,进而促进城镇经济发展;（2）在不完全市场条件下,随着城镇后工业经济的发展,残缺的城镇国有土地制度将导致微观城镇用地主体对其土地投资的“后悔效应”, 进而对城镇经济发展带来不利影响。研究结论：以城镇国有土地市场化改革为指向,完善中国城镇国有土地制度对吸引城镇土地投资存在直接且积极的心理预期影响,也将有利于促进城镇经济的发展。     

战略性海洋新兴产业发展的基本构想及对策研究——以连云港市为例

近年来,连云港市战略性海洋新兴产业虽发展较快,但海洋资源和区位优势尚未得到充分发挥,在发展中还存在着诸如政策体系不完善、高层次人才匮乏、融资渠道狭窄、产业链条较短等一些迫切需要解决的问题。为此,连云港市应把握机遇、迎接挑战,目前应重点发展海洋生物医药业、海洋装备制造业、清洁能源产业、海水综合利用业、现代海洋商务服务业、滨海旅游业等六大产业,抢占战略性海洋新兴产业发展制高点,努力建成江苏战略性海洋新兴产业发展示范区。当务之急,要在政策体系构建、高层次人才队伍培养、融资渠道拓展、龙头企业培育、产业链条完善等几个方面多下功夫。     

公司治理效率、动态内生性与非效率投资——基于动态性视角的经验研究

本文以2002—2011年716家上市公司为样本,运用动态面板的System GMM估计方法,同时考虑了三种内生性,以动态性的视角研究了公司治理效率与公司非效率投资间的关系。通过研究,得到以下结论：（1）前期和当期公司治理效率都与当期公司非效率投资负相关;（2）公司治理效率对公司非效率投资影响的持续时间大约为4年;（3）前期公司非效率投资对当期公司治理效率有显著的正向反馈效应;（4）公司治理效率与公司非效率投资间存在动态内生性;（5）公司的非效率投资不仅有损于公司的当期价值,而且也不利于公司的未来价值。     

中国企业对发达国家投资与自主创新能力的实证研究

当代国际直接投资实践表明,引进外国投资很难获得先进技术,而发展对外直接投资则是获得国外先进技术的重要途径之一。本文选取中国1995～2012年对20个发达国家的对外直接投资数据,对发达国家投资与自主创新能力进行检验,运用计量模型进行实证研究。结果显示,中国企业对发达国家投资与自主创新能力之间存在着紧密和稳定的正向关系,对发达国家的直接投资对中国的自主创新能力有提升作用。此外,研究与开发投入对于企业创新有明显的正向效应,而科技活动人员数量对发明专利授权量存在负向影响。     

世界经济格局变化与中部地区投资战略选择的思考

作为投资拉动型经济的中部地区,面对世界经济格局变化的影响和自身投资中存在的问题,必须立足于国家扩大内需的政策,及时调整投资重点;大力推进投融资渠道多元化,着力在利用民间资本上取得突破;加强投资管理和项目策划,努力扩大战略性新兴产业投资比重;全方位优化经济发展环境,切实增强吸引投资的竞争力,从而推动投资保持合理增长。