Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

国际工程项目宏观风险评价研究

随着我国建筑总承包企业实力不断加强,中国建筑总承包企业在国际市场上占据越来越重要的角色,然而,国际工程给我国带来巨大利润的同时,也使其面临着巨大的风险。通过综合考虑国际承包企业的跨国际运作,基于建筑总承包企业可能面临的企业自身技术管理能力、国际政治、国际金融环境、人文地理等风险因素,构建了系统的国际工程宏观风险评价指标体系,给出了国际工程宏观风险评价方法,对国际承包商从事国际工程承包战略决策、规避宏观风险提供一定的借鉴意义。     

城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价研究——以武汉市为例

城市国民经济和社会发展规划编制是否科学．会直接影响到城市其他规划的科学性，对城市未来的发展及生态环境状况影响重大。本文论述了对城市国民经济和社会发展规划开展战略环境评价的必要性和重要性．并结合（《武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年总体规划纲要》探讨了我国城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价的技术思路和技术方法。     

基于模糊层次分析法的合同能源管理项目风险综合评价

以合同能源管理项目为研究对象,结合我国社会经济发展现状,分析了我国合同能源管理项目实施过程中存在的政策与市场、融资以及运营与效益三方面风险,并运用模糊层次分析法对合同能源管理项目进行了风险评价。     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

重庆市水资源生态足迹与生态承载力分析

利用水资源生态足迹分析方法对重庆市2000～2009年的水资源生态足迹、生态承载力进行了分析。重庆市历年水资源承载力大于水资源生态足迹,存在一定的生态盈余,水资源生态承载力受干旱等自然灾害影响较大。重庆市水资源生态足迹在逐年提高,万元国内生产总值水资源生态足迹在逐年下降,水资源开发利用程度和利用效率逐步提高。重点讨论了水资源生态足迹在三次产业间和城乡间的差异。     

葫芦门式起重机主梁焊缝检验及其质量评定

主梁不仅是葫芦门式起重机的主体部件,而且还是主要的受力构件,因此主梁的质量直接决定着整机的寿命,而主梁焊缝质量又是决定主梁这一焊接结构件的质量关键所在。所以从保证安全和质量的角度出发,对主梁焊缝的宏观和微观检验必不可少,且根据检验结果做出准确可信的质量评定是十分重要的。实践结果表明,在检验中不仅要按照标准的要求而且还要加以消化,才能把握好对主梁焊缝检验的尺度,直至给出正确的评定,进而达到保证起重机整机制造质量的目的。     

基于价值链将财务与非财务指标相结合综合评价公司业绩

本文在概览公司业绩评价发展及现状的基础上,简单分析了主要评价方法,指出业绩评价指标应用中存在的问题,进而推测未来综合业绩评价的发展趋势,并且建议基于价值链将财务与非财务指标相结合综合评价公司业绩。     

基于模糊综合评判的配电网运行风险评估模型及运用

本文从配电网运行的内部环境因素和外部环境因素综合考虑了影响其运行风险的各种不确定因素。通过确定风险因素集、指标集以及采用三角模糊数互补判断矩阵确定风险权重集,建立了配电网运行风险的模糊综合评判矩阵,并运用于配电网运行的外部风险评估。最后,通过实例证明了模型的可操作性。     

Within‐Subject Intra‐ and Inter‐Method Consistency of Two Experimental Risk Attitude Elicitation Methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury 2002, 2005 ) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh ( 2009 ). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within‐subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.