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991.
    
Background: QALYs are widely used in health economic evaluation, but remain controversial, largely because they do not reflect how many people behave in practice. This paper presents a new conceptual model (Load Model) and illustrates it in comparison with the QALY model.

Methods: Load is the average annual weight attributed to morbidity and mortality over a defined period, using weightings based on preference judgements. Morbidity Load is attributed to states of illness, according to their perceived severity. When people are in full health, Load is zero (no morbidity). Death is treated as an event with negative consequences, incurred in the year following death. Deaths may be weighted equally, with a fixed negative weight such as ?100, or differ according to the context of death. After death, Load is zero. In a worked example, we use the standard gamble method to obtain a weighting for an illness state, for both Load and QALY models. A judge is indifferent between certainty of 1.5 years’ illness followed by death, or a 50/50 chance of 1.5 years’ full health or 1-year illness, each followed by death. The weightings calculated are applied to a hypothetical life, 72 years in full health followed by 3 years with illness then death, using both models. Three other hypothetical outcomes are also compared.

Results: For an example life, the relative size of the morbidity component compared with the mortality component is much higher in the Load model than in the QALY model. When comparing alternative outcomes, there are also substantial differences between the two models.

Conclusions: In the Load model the weight of morbidity, relative to mortality, is very different from that in the QALY model. Given the role of the QALYs in economic evaluation, the implications of an alternative, which generates very different results, warrant further exploration.  相似文献   
992.
城市国民经济和社会发展规划编制是否科学.会直接影响到城市其他规划的科学性,对城市未来的发展及生态环境状况影响重大。本文论述了对城市国民经济和社会发展规划开展战略环境评价的必要性和重要性.并结合(《武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年总体规划纲要》探讨了我国城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价的技术思路和技术方法。  相似文献   
993.
Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.  相似文献   
994.
区域生态风险研究兴起于20世纪80年代,对科学引文索引数据库生态风险研究相关的2 347篇文献进行分析,从文献类型、出版年份、所属国家或地区、学科类别、发表作者和研究热点进行分析,简要描述国内的研究现状,基于国内外的相关研究,提出区域生态风险管理的研究展望。  相似文献   
995.
经济利润及折现现金流在企业价值评估中的应用研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
几个世纪以来,经济学家一直在试图说明,只有经济利润才能够真正反映企业的价值创造能力,而会计利润则或多或少地扭曲了企业所创造的价值,因此必须进行会计调整才能使会计利润与经济利润一致。经济利润在企业价值评估中起着非常重要的作用,本文从折现现金流的方法入手,推导出企业价值和经济利润之间所存在的必然联系。  相似文献   
996.
生命周期评价(LCA)作为ISO14000环境管理系列标准提出的一种环境管理思想和工具,在提高产品生态环境性能中获得越来越广泛的应用.为使LCA具有可操作性和简化,本文分析了国内外LCA数据库软件的不足.开发了具有开放性、可移植性、清单分析和影响评价相结合、可拓展性和定性定量评价相结合五大特点的LCA数据管理信息系统.  相似文献   
997.
This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.  相似文献   
998.
企业投资项目比选决策方法研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
由于信息不对称或者有些投资项目本身没有先例可循,企业投资项目存在很大风险.为了较全面地考察项目投资所面临的各种因素,作出合理的项目投资决策,采用多属性决策中确定属性权重的熵权法联合决策者对属性重要性认识的主观权重和用于排序比较的TOPSIS法,为企业投资项目的比选决策提供一种新的决策方法.该方法综合考虑了决策者的主观权重和投资项目各影响因素信息之间固有的客观权重、综合考虑了风险和收益的多方面因素对投资项目作出比选决策.最后举一项目投资比选实例加以说明.  相似文献   
999.
南京市旅游国际化水平评价及其发展构想   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文试图以南京市为例探讨城市旅游国际化问题。文章在剖析旅游国际化概念与内涵的基础上,对南京市旅游国际化发展现状进行水平评价与问题分析,并提出推进南京旅游国际化基本思路及有关保障措施。研究表明,目前南京市旅游国际化水平不高,国际化发展还存在许多问题;要迅速提升南京市旅游国际化水平,必须开发一批国际旅游产品,完善旅游配套功能,推进旅游管理与服务国际标准化,加强国际旅游营销,推动旅游经营的国际化,引进和培养国际化人才,同时还需要政府政策和有关措施的支持与配合。  相似文献   
1000.
Sustainability assessment methods are primarily aimed at global, national or state scales. However, modelling sustainability at finer spatial scales, such as the region, is essential for understanding and achieving sustainability. Regions are emerging as an essential focus for sustainability researchers, natural resource managers and strategic planners working to develop and implement sustainability goals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods - ecological footprint, wellbeing assessment, ecosystem health assessment, quality of life and natural resource availability - at the regional scale. Each of these assessment methods are tested using South East Queensland (SEQ) as a case study. It was selected because of its ecological and demographic diversity, its combination of coastal and land management issues, and its urban metropolitan and rural farm and non-farm communities. The applicability of each of these methods to regional assessment was examined using an evaluation criteria matrix, which describes the attributes of an effective method and the characteristics that make these methods useful for regional management and building community capacity to progress sustainability. We found that the methods tested failed to effectively measure progress toward sustainability at the regional scale, demonstrating the need for a new method for assessing regional sustainability.  相似文献   
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