我国商业银行非利息收入影响因素的实证分析

我国商业银行非利息业务增长迅速,已经成为增加营业收入、获取利润的重要来源。以具有代表性的10家商业银行作为样本,对商业银行非利息收入的影响因素进行实证分析,并对国有大型银行与中小型银行展开对比研究,结果显示：核心存款、贷款数量、费用控制能力、资产规模是影响银行非利息收入的基本因素;如果银行更关注吸收存款传统业务,则非利息收入的发展会受到一定限制;规模较大的银行更容易实现非利息收入高速增长;影响国有大型商业银行非利息收入的主要因素是资产收益率、核心存款占比,影响中小股份制商业银行非利息收入的主要因素是贷款数量、费用控制能力、资产规模。     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.     

从资本保全角度看民间非营利组织会计制度中的改革

非营利组织的资产保全重点是净资产的保全,《民间非营利组织会计制度》对净资产保全的规定有所欠缺,影响了非营利民间组织的发展。据此,笔者针对如何对其进行改革的问题,提出了个人意见。     

No Arbitrage in Discrete Time Under Portfolio Constraints

In frictionless securities markets, the characterization of the no-arbitrage condition by the existence of equivalent martingale measures in discrete time is known as the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. In the presence of convex constraints on the trading strategies, we extend this theorem under a closedness condition and a nondegeneracy assumption. We then provide connections with the superreplication problem solved in Föllmer and Kramkov (1997).     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AS A GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELD

A simple model of the term structure of interest rates is introduced in which the family of instantaneous forward rates evolves as a continuous Gaussian random field. A necessary and sufficient condition for the associated family of discounted zero-coupon bond prices to be martingales is given, permitting the consistent pricing of interest rate contingent claims. Examples of the pricing of interest-rate caps and the situation when the Gaussian random field may be viewed as a deterministic time change of the standard Brownian sheet are discussed.     

CONVEX RISK MEASURES FOR GOOD DEAL BOUNDS

We study convex risk measures describing the upper and lower bounds of a good deal bound, which is a subinterval of a no‐arbitrage pricing bound. We call such a convex risk measure a good deal valuation and give a set of equivalent conditions for its existence in terms of market. A good deal valuation is characterized by several equivalent properties and in particular, we see that a convex risk measure is a good deal valuation only if it is given as a risk indifference price. An application to shortfall risk measure is given. In addition, we show that the no‐free‐lunch (NFL) condition is equivalent to the existence of a relevant convex risk measure, which is a good deal valuation. The relevance turns out to be a condition for a good deal valuation to be reasonable. Further, we investigate conditions under which any good deal valuation is relevant.     

ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

房地产税收、公共服务供给与房价——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

利用中国大陆1998—2009年的省际面板数据研究地方房地产税负、公共服务供给与房价间的关系,结果表明:在整体层面,房地产持有税、交易税与房价显著负相关,而公共支出强度与公共服务水平则与房价显著正相关,并且公共服务正资本化效果大于房地产税负的负资本化效果,人均收入水平与人口密度同样与房价正相关;在区域层面,东部地区房地产税负对房价的影响较大,而在中西部地区,人均收入水平与人口密度则是影响房价的最重要因素。     

衡量房价合理回归标准的思考

房价合理回归就是要通过对房价的调控使其回到合理水平,它体现了中央政府对房价调控的决心和信心,反映了城镇居民的心声和期待。判断房价是否合理回归,一看房价是否与城镇居民收入相适应;二看房价是否与成本和合理利润相匹配。要促进房价合理回归,必须坚持房价调控政策不动摇,巩固房价调控成果;努力降低商品住房成本,制止开发商暴利行为;理顺收入分配关系,增加城镇居民收入;加大保障性住房建设力度,构建住房保障体系;抑制住房投机需求,维护市场秩序,以实现房价调控目标。     

The impact of external reference price on consumer price expectations

Comparative pricing practices are frequently used where actual product prices are accompanied by higher external reference prices. All types of stores, regular-price department stores as well as discount stores, use comparative price claims to frame price deals as attractive [Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199]. In this paper, a quadratic model is specified for the impact of external reference price (ERP) on consumer price expectations. Based on the research on communication discrepancy and advertising claim discrepancy, which in turn draw on assimilation-contrast, attribution, and prospect theories, we hypothesize a quadratic effect of external reference prices on consumer price expectations. An interactive, computer-controlled experiment using multiple levels of ERP is used to estimate the proposed model. As hypothesized, support for an inverted U-shape relationship is found between consumers’ updated price expectations and the difference between ERP and initial price expectations. That is, as the difference between ERP and subjects’ initial price expectations increases, subjects’ updated price expectations increase to a point and then start to decrease. We find that the fit of the quadratic model specification for the effect of external reference price on price expectations is noticeably superior to that of linear, logarithmic, square root, and S-shaped specifications. Finally, we provide implications of our results for both retail managers and for regulatory authorities alike.