我国进口贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

通过采用协整和误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验的方法,分析了1952-2002年间进口贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明我国进口与GDP之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系和协整关系;并运用EG两步法建立二者之间的误差修正模型,得出了进口对经济增长的短期和长期作用。     

国际油价与人民币汇率的非对称溢出效应研究--基于VEC-BEKK-GARCH模型

石油作为重要的战略能源,其价格波动对全球经济的运行和发展会产生极大的影响。为测算国际油价与人民币汇率的均衡关系及非对称溢出效应,选取2008年1月~2019年7月的每日数据,在平稳性检验的基础上,综合运用协整检验和脉冲响应函数等方式,对二者的均值溢出效应进行测量;在VECBEKK-GARCH模型的支撑下,对其非对称波动溢出效应水平进行测算。研究结果表明:国际油价与人民币汇率的协整关系和均值溢出效应处于长期均衡状态;二者的非对称波动溢出效应是双向的,国际油价会随人民币汇率的变化呈现出时变性和持续性特征,而国际油价变动具备持续性特征时,人民币汇率随之产生变化。这种非对称波动溢出效应表明,无论国际油价如何变化,对人民币汇率的冲击都是非对称的。     

Is transportation improving urbanization in China?

This study applies the rolling-window causality test to analyze the interaction between transportation infrastructure and urbanization in China. Our results obviously support search-matching theory in that transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization in sub-sample periods. Urbanization does not Granger cause transportation infrastructure development except for the 1977–1980 period, when urbanization exerted negative effects on transportation infrastructure. The transportation structure is inadequate, and rational allocation of transportation resources is needed to improve the level of urbanization. This means that transportation improves urbanization due to government investment and regional integration. Development of transportation infrastructure has been rapid, which improved urbanization during the Great Cultural Revolution period. Urbanization urgently needs to keep up with the development of traffic infrastructure construction by adding to traffic investment. Transportation infrastructure requires whole planning, a unified layout, and rational adjustment of the transportation structure.     

山东省出口贸易与能源消费关系的实证分析

通过对山东省能源消费与出口贸易关系进行协整与Granger因果关系检验,得到如下结论：山东省能源消费与出口贸易之间存在较强的正相关性;山东省出口贸易规模的发展既影响着能源的消费量,又受到能源消费量的制约。在当前能源供给压力趋紧的情况下,为保持山东出口贸易可持续发展,山东省需要采取积极措施,优化出口产品结构,降低高能耗产品出口比重,同时,还应促进出口生产企业进行技术改造,降低出口产品生产的能耗。     

Testing the impact of trading volume on market return and volatility： The case of the Romanian stock market

This paper examines both the return-volume and volatility-volume movements on Bucharest stock exchange, in order to evaluate the impact of changes in stock market liquidity on stock returns and on volatility of returns. We employ linear Granger-causality tests to investigate the dynamic relation between trading volume, stock returns and returns volatility on the Romanian stock market, using daily logarithmic returns for the composite index BET-C, as a proxy for the market, and daily logarithmic change in trading volume during the period January 2004-July 2008. As a proxy for return volatility we employ absolute values of daily deviation of return from its mean value during the considered time period. We can report unidirectional linear causality from returns to volume and also from volume to volatility.     

基于Cobb—Douglas函数的工程项目经理激励机制设计

针对施工企业与项目经理之间的委托代理风险,采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数形式对其进行了模型化,探讨了将项目经理的能力系数、物质激励性努力水平系数和精神激励性努力水平系数引入模型。通过对模型的分析,给出了相应的风险最优激励系数,并分析了模型中各个参数对激励机制设计的影响。结果表明:采用利益激励、业绩标尺考核、第三方监督、信誉机制的建立、严格项目经理的筛选以及提供一定精神激励等综合机制,对项目经理的代理风险具有良好的激励和约束作用。     

Joint Implementation: Strategic Reactions and Possible Remedies

This paper investigates the promising proposal of Joint Implementation (JI) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This was ultimately the only concrete outcome of the Conference on Climate Change in Berlin, albeit restricted to a pilot phase. The basic idea, given the public's awareness of global warming, sounds economically plausible: The industrialized countries, the only ones required to stabilize and lower carbon emissions, can search for cheaper reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and economies in transition. However, this proposal leads to strategic reactions by developing countries reinforced by the fact that this cheating coincides with the interest of the industrialized country. In short, this proposal will lead to cheating (given asymmetric information) and will thus produce largely faked reductions in emissions. On the constructive side, an efficient mechanism retaining the spirit of JI is derived, which deters strategic reactions. This differs from a usual principal-agent problem through an additional hierarchical layer: a global authority (e.g. the Conference of Parties on Climate Change), an industrialized country and a developing country. The unavoidable loss that is even associated with an optimal scheme due to strategic, behavioural reality (the first best optimum is unattainable, except at the top) leads, of course, to much less glamorous predictions in emission reductions. Moreover, the implicit subsidization scheme focuses and favours on already 'efficient' partners.     

Export diversification,mean-reversion of exports,and stability of export–growth causality

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a five-step statistical procedure to examine a linkage among export diversification, mean-reversion of exports, and stability of the export–growth causality. This linkage was assessed for France, Norway, and Switzerland between 1980Q1 and 2016Q4. The findings indicated that the mean-reversion tendency of the export sectors in France and Switzerland was stronger than in Norway, which highlighted the important role of export activities for economic growth in France and Switzerland. Also, the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Norway was found to be more unstable than in France, but more stable than in Switzerland.     

上海市房地产开发投资与经济增长的动态关系考察

上海经济发展处于全国领先水平,房地产业发展也比较成熟,考察上海房地产投资与经济增长的关系更能揭示两者之间的内在作用机制。基于上海2005年第1季度至2013年第2季度的经济数据进行实证研究,结果显示：上海房地产开发投资与其经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,短期内房地产开发投资与经济增长互为Granger原因,且房地产开发投资与经济增长间的相互波动冲击都表现出正向响应,但房地产开发投资的冲击作用相对较小。     

基于格兰杰因果关系检验的我国银行保险退保因素分析

我国银行保险内存不足。通过格兰杰因果关系检验对“财务危机”和“利率替代”两种假说进行实证检验后得出：短期利率波动对银行保险退保影响不显著,长期利率波动对银行保险退保影响较显著,失业对银行保险退保短期影响较显著,证券投资波动对银行保险退保影响最为显著。为了降低我国银行保险的退保率,要深化银保合作机制,为了降低市场因素带来的影响,可适当提高银保产品的收益率,银保产品不要过于理财化,可适当增加一些保障功能。