信息不对称条件下特许权市场的博弈分析

特许经营是当今世界范围内普遍流行的一种商业模式,然而由于特许权市场是典型的信息不对称市场,被特许人权益受侵害的事件屡有发生。利用博弈模型对特许权市场作一番模拟和研究,分析市场均衡的类型、条件和各方的均衡策略。最后根据模型分析对规范特许权市场运行,促进特许权市场健康发展提出了针对性的建议。     

Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing commodity price risk in many industries. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The US lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2×4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead–lag relationships between the 3-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber, representative spot prices, and lumber futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Results suggest that at least for 2×4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Block Lumber lead both the spot price and futures price, suggesting that this private cash forward market provides some level of price discovery in the lumber markets.     

基于VAR模型的中国股市财富效应实证研究

文章运用基于VAR模型的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、ECM方法研究有关财富效应的一些问题,形成以下结论:我国股票市场总体上存在财富效应,但在某些时段表现为股市投资对消费的替代效应;通过股票市场刺激消费的做法短期可行,长期并不有效。文章最后提出了有利于发挥股市财富效应的相关措施。     

THE INTERTEMPORAL RELATION BETWEEN MONEY AND PRICES IN SOUTH AFRICA*

Several studies have emphasized the need to ‘filter’ the money growth and inflation data before a clear short‐run intertemporal relation between them is revealed. When a simple filtering technique is employed to changes in money and prices, the correlation of the series tends to increase as the filter used shifts to lower frequency data. The technique also reveals a statistically significant relation between money and inflation, a pattern of Granger causality that has changed with changes in the monetary and exchange rate regime during 1965‐2005, and much shorter leads/lags between money and inflation than those typically found in similar studies of the experience of developed economies.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

Mean‐reverting and Asymmetric Volatility Switching Properties of Stock Price Index,Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital in Taiwan*

The main purpose of the present study is to explore the relationships among stock price index, exchange rate and foreign capital in Taiwan and to detect whether the mean‐reverting and asymmetric volatility switching properties exist in these markets. The multivariate asymmetric nonlinear smooth transition generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean model is used in this study. The empirical results indicate that overbuy and oversell rates of foreign capital influence the movements of the stock price index and the exchange rate. All three conditional means exhibit asymmetric mean‐reverting behavior, with negative returns reverting quicker than positive returns in terms of both speed and magnitude. The empirical results also demonstrate that the conditional heteroskedasticities of these markets are asymmetric, generating different volatility persistence under a prior positive and negative return shock.     

委托-代理理论的分析应用——以漳州花卉企业雇佣关系为例

本文以代理-理论模型分析框架为基础,研究台资花卉企业与雇佣花农之间的风险分担和利益分成。通过比较信息对称与信息不对称情况下的最优契约,分析不同因素对花卉企业与雇佣花农以及代理成本的影响。考察了写入契约的新观测变量对最优契约设计的影响。利用拓展的模型证明了无法写入契约的代理人额外收入对雇佣花农和花卉企业各自收益的影响。最后引入声誉模型,讨论了利用隐性激励机制解决企业与花农之间道德风险的方法。     

企业战略联盟中知识共享的博弈分析

文章分析了知识共享主体间博弈的过程,旨在为企业战略联盟中知识共享策略提供依据。文中引入企业知识转化为商业价值的能力、知识存储量、私有知识、共享知识及其转化为商业价值的弹性系数,构建联盟共享知识的博弈模型并进行分析。研究认为：联盟知识共享水平受成员个数、知识存储量、私有知识和共享知识转化为商业价值的弹性影响,而不受企业技术水平影响;领导者集中决策将有助提高联盟知识共享水平;知识存储差距过大的非对称企业结盟,联盟知识共享博弈很可能会转化为智猪博弈,但知识共享总量要大于二者知识存储差距不大时的情况。因此,为提高联盟知识共享水平,企业在组成联盟时,应考虑到以上因素对知识共享决策的影响     

中国科技中介发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

文章以国家统计局发布的1991—2005年统计数据为基础,运用计量经济学中Granger Causality因果关系检验法和回归分析法对中国科技中介发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国科技中介发展与经济增长之间不存在着明显的因果关系;1991—2005年间,科技中介发展对我国经济增长的贡献率约为6.88％,表明科技中介发展在一定程度上促进了我国经济的增长,但作用还不是很大。     

装备寿命周期阶段经费博弈研究

针对装备采办过程中的“拖降涨”现象,分析了装备寿命周期阶段主体之间的关系,建立了军方和科研生产部门两大联盟之间的信息不对称委托——代理模型,提出了减少装备寿命周期费用的有效措施。