The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

基于GIS空间分析法的广东省经济发展区域差异

选取广东省各地市1990年、1995年和2000—2004年7个年份的人均GDP数据,采用GIS空间分析法对经济发展区域差异进行了研究。通过计算各地市人均GDP的空间自相关系数Moran’s I,结果表明其经济发展具有强烈的空间自相关,揭示了经济发展区域差异正在逐年增大,经济发展存在着明显的空间二元结构。最后通过对各研究年份空间联系局域指标(LISA)的分析,揭示了经济发展区域差异的时空变化特点。     

Generalizations of the KPSS-test for stationarity

We propose automatic generalizations of the KPSS-test for the null hypothesis of stationarity of a univariate time series. We can use these tests for the null hypotheses of trend stationarity, level stationarity and zero mean stationarity. We introduce the asymptotic null distributions and we determine consistency against relevant nonstationary alternatives. We compare the properties of the tests with those of other proposed tests for stationarity. Monte Carlo simulations support the relevance of the tests when an autoregressive process with large positive autocorrelations is likely under the null hypothesis.     

Analysing neighbourhood influence in criminology

Neighbourhood influence in criminology can be conceptualised both as pertaining to the influence of characteristics of a neighbourhood on its inhabitants, and to the mutual influence of characteristics of adjacent neighbourhoods on each other. The first conceptualisation asks for multilevel analysis, the second one for one of several spatial dependency (spatial autocorrelation) methods. Various models in both traditions are discussed and illustrated with data on victimisation and on burglary.     

2006—2020年沈阳市耕地多功能权衡协同关系演变分析

研究目的：揭示沈阳市耕地多功能时空演变格局及功能间权衡协同关系,探讨格网尺度下耕地功能组合分区方案,为耕地多功能协调发展和空间合理布局提供实施路径和理论借鉴。研究方法：用斯皮尔曼和空间自相关分析方法。研究结果：（1）2006—2020年沈阳市耕地功能呈现不同变化趋势。耕地生产保障功能处于较高水平,2006年和2020年Moran’s I分别为0.973和0.766,社会保障功能持续增加,其Moran’s I由0.485上升为0.564。（2）耕地功能间自相关整体显著权衡且片状分布,协同程度呈增强趋势,局部权衡协同空间格局存在重叠特征。（3）根据耕地多功能权衡协同演变特征,可将沈阳市耕地划分为单功能主导区,双功能协同区、多功能协同区、高协同区和低协同区。研究结论：沈阳市耕地多功能权衡协同区具有明显空间异质性和重叠性,通过对不同分区内耕地多功能优化组合,可实现对耕地资源的科学保护和合理利用。     

Spatial shift-share analysis versus spatial filtering: an application to Spanish employment data

The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of spatial effects in the evolution of regional employment, thus improving the explanation of the existing differences. With this aim, two non-parametric techniques are proposed: spatial shift-share analysis and spatial filtering. Spatial shift-share models based on previously defined spatial weights matrix allow the identification and estimation of the spatial effects. Furthermore, spatial filtering techniques can be used in order to remove the effects of spatial correlation, thus allowing the decomposition of the employment variation into two components, respectively related to the spatial and structural effects. The application of both techniques to the spatial analysis of regional employment in Spain leads to some interesting findings and shows the main advantages and limitations of each of the considered procedures, together with the quantification of their sensitivity with regard to the considered weights matrix.     

Bootstrap methods for autocorrelation test with uncorrelated but not independent errors

By using bootstrap technique we investigate the properties of the Breusch [Breusch, T.S., 1978. Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers 17, 334–355]–Godfrey [Godfrey, L.G., 1978. Testing for higher order serial correlation in regression equations when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 46, 1303–1310] autocorrelation tests in dynamic models with uncorrelated but not independent errors. In this paper we show that, under conditions when the errors are uncorrelated but not independent, even the best likelihood ratio test cannot achieve the asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation. Standard bootstrap methods also fail to produce consistent results. To overcome this problem we applied several bootstrap testing methods for the same purpose and found the stationary bootstrap and Wild bootstrap with static model to perform adequately among the other bootstrap methods.     

基于循环自相关的正弦调频信号参数估计新方法

为解决现有的正弦调频（SFM）信号参数估计方法运算复杂度高、受信噪比限制等问 题,提出了一种基于循环自相关的SFM信号参数估计新方法。首先分析了SFM信号循环自相关 函数特征,推导了信号调制频率的估计表达式;然后对信号延时相乘以去除其正弦调制特性, 得到单频信号并估计信号载频。最后,利用信号频率调制的周期性,对下变频至零频的信号 进行周期累加以减少噪声影响,通过对累加后的信号进行瞬时频率计算得到调制指数估计值 。仿真表明,信噪比（SNR）大于6 dB时,各参数估计值的均方根误差小于-18 dB 。该算法计算量较小,为同等条件下利用卡森准则（CR）方法的16%,便于工程实现。     

基于空间自相关的云南省区域经济与游客数量研究

选取云南省2008-2012年各州市的GDP数据,运用空间统计分析方法对其区域经济发展的空间关系、时空变化特点进行研究,并初步探索游客数量与区域经济间的时空关系。     

中国区域创新绩效评价的影响因素研究——基于面板数据空间杜宾模型计量分析

本文利用2004～2013年中国大陆各省、直辖市、自治区的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型对中国区域创新绩效评价的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究表明：前期专利存量、研发人员数量占就业人员比例对区域创新绩效呈正向影响;研发经费投入强度、外贸依存度对区域创新绩效呈负向影响;前期专利存量对区域创新绩效有着显著的空间滞后影响;区域创新绩效存在着显著的空间自相关效应,呈现空间依赖性和空间集聚现象。根据实证分析的结论提出了相关建议。