Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis

In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

An analytical approximation formula for European option pricing under a new stochastic volatility model with regime-switching

In this paper, an analytical approximation formula for pricing European options is obtained under a newly proposed hybrid model with the volatility of volatility in the Heston model following a Markov chain, the adoption of which is motivated by the empirical evidence of the existence of regime-switching in real markets. We first derive the coupled PDE (partial differential equation) system that governs the European option price, which is solved with the perturbation method. It should be noted that the newly derived formula is fast and easy to implement with only normal distribution function involved, and numerical experiments confirm that our formula could provide quite accurate option prices, especially for relatively short-tenor ones. Finally, empirical studies are carried out to show the superiority of our model based on S&P 500 returns and options with the time to expiry less than one month.     

指数化股票期权激励及其在我国应用性分析

文章在阐述指数化股票期权的产生、特性的基础上,分析了指数化股票期权在我国应用的必要性、可行性和有效性,并指出在指数化股票期权激励设计中要注意的事项及相关政策.     

企业战略投资的分类治理——基于交易治理期权观的视角

在不确定和竞争的环境下,企业战略投资价值实现方式的选择或治理模式的选择成为关系战略投资战略价值实现的根本问题。若基于交易成本理论来选择战略投资的治理模式,势必影响企业的重大战略时机和战略价值的实现;而基于期权观的治理理论来选择战略投资的治理模式,不但可以确保战略投资灵活性期权价值的实现,而且能最大化实现企业的战略价值。本文对企业的4类战略投资(技术研发投资、战略原料投资、战略市场投资、战略人力资本投资)的治理问题的具体分析证明了期权治理观的观点。     

实物期权在房地产投资估价中的应用

与传统的投资决策方法相比,实物期权方法不仅考虑到房地产投资的不确定性带来的风险,还体现了其柔性管理和战略投资的价值。介绍了实物期权理论的概念与分类,将实物期权理论引入房地产投资估价中,并通过等待期权实例分析说明了其在实际中的应用。     

航运联盟下的集装箱运输路径选择研究

首先分析了班轮运输的变化现状,然后运用系统分析的方法,研究运输网络的整体最优。结合集装箱运输具体的特性,构造了一整体最优情况下,各集装箱路径选择的模型。对班轮公司的日常经营调度、航线规划等有较大的参考意义。     

论绿色贸易壁垒对我国农产品贸易的影响与对策

绿色贸易壁垒作为一种新的技术性贸易壁垒,对我国农产品出口造成了较大的影响。我国政府应该正视国际农产品贸易中绿色环保的发展趋势,及时调整自己的贸易策略。文中在绿色贸易壁垒对我国农产品贸易积极和消极影响分析的基础上,提出了应对该种贸易壁垒的四点对策。     

Superhedging under ratio constraint

We consider superhedging of contingent claims under ratio constraint. It has been widely recognized that the minimum cost of superhedging a contingent claim with certain portfolio constraints is equal to the price of a claim with appropriately modified payoff but without constraints. In terms of the backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and the variational inequality equation approach, we revisit this result and provide two counterexamples.     

REAL OPTIONS WITH COMPETITION AND REGIME SWITCHING

In this paper, we examine irreversible investment decisions in duopoly games with a variable economic climate. Integrating timing flexibility, competition, and changes in the economic environment in the form of a cash flow process with regime switching, the problem is formulated as a stopping‐time game under Stackelberg leader‐follower competition, in which both players determine their respective optimal market entry time. By extending the variational inequality approach, we solve for the free boundaries and obtain optimal investment strategies for each player. Despite the lack of regularity in the leader's obstacle and the cash flow regime uncertainty, the regime‐dependent optimal policies for both the leader and the follower are obtained. In addition, we perform comprehensive numerical experiments to demonstrate the properties of solutions and to gain insights into the implications of regime switching.