Integrating intuition and artificial intelligence in organizational decision-making

Artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally changing organizational decision-making processes. With the abilities to self-learn and to improve decision quality, AI is now taking over many decision responsibilities that were formerly assigned to humans alone. However, the effectiveness of AI for ill-structured and uncertain decision environments is still in question. In such decision contexts that have no precedent on which to base a solution, humans have historically relied on their intuition to make decisions. Yet intuition, too, has been found to have weaknesses that restrict decision quality. Therefore, this article introduces a decision-making model that effectively integrates the strengths of both intuition and AI while minimizing the vulnerabilities of each method. The model specifies when and how both modes should be combined for effective organizational decision-making. In addition, the article presents important future research considerations relating to AI for both practitioners and academics.     

Glamour,value and anchoring on the changing P/E

The fact that value shares outperform glamour shares in the long term has been known for over 50 years. Why then do glamour shares remain popular? The price-earnings (P/E) ratio was the first statistic documented to discriminate between the two. Using data for all US stocks since 1983, we find that glamour shares have a much greater tendency to change P/E decile than value shares. We use TreeAge decision tree software, which has not been applied to problems in finance before, to show that glamour investors cannot rationally expect any windfall as their company's P/E decile changes, whatever their horizon. We infer that glamour investors anchor on the initially high P/E value, underestimate the likelihood of change and are continually surprised. We also seek theoretical justification for why value shares tend to outperform glamour shares. No convincing arguments based on the efficient market hypothesis have been put forward to show that the outperformance of value shares might be due to their being fundamentally riskier. Here, we apply equations from option theory to show that value shares can indeed be expected to outperform glamour shares.     

Validating a multidimensional perspective of brand equity on motivation,expectation, and behavioural intention: a practical examination of culinary tourism

This study presents a brand equity theory of culinary tourism by integrating behavioural theory with the mediation-moderation model. The culinary tourism brand-equity model underscores the value of tourists’ expectations as a means to enhance the effects of travel motivation on behavioural intention. This study empirically tests this theory using a sample of 513 foreign tourists and provides evidence that travel motivation mediates the relationship between the four critical attributes of brand equity and behavioural intention. Furthermore, the results confirm the interrelationships within brand equity and reveal that tourist expectations positively moderate the relationship between travel motivation and behavioural intention. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.     

Regional economic growth disparities: A political economy perspective

Regional differences in economic growth have been observed within many countries. Our story emphasises three region-specific factors driving growth—capital, labour and political factors. Conditional on differences in production factor (i.e., labour and capital) variations across democratic states, what role do differences in underlying “political factors” across regions play in accounting for regional growth disparities? We build a political economy model of endogenous growth where regions have the same political institutions, but experience different (and estimable) distributions over voter political biases (i.e., our “political factors”). In our model, political factors affect regional productivity as a consequence of politico-economic equilibrium. We discipline our regional growth accounting exercises by calibrating/estimating each model to American state-level economic and political-survey data. We show that the capital factor is the predominant driving force behind growth in American states. Nevertheless, regional variations in distributions of voter's political biases also account a great deal for regional growth disparities. We also evaluate how much politics would have distorted agents' welfare and regional growth, were regional economies given the opportunity to live under an efficient social planner's allocation system; and, if agents were to live under the same democratic system but where all voters have equal voting influence.     

Investor sentiment and the financial crisis: a sentiment-based portfolio theory perspective

The article proposes a portfolio model subjected to a constraint that captures the investor’s goal, with maximum estimation of expected return that is affected by investor sentiment. And we give a solution of the portfolio model by exploring the geometric features. Furthermore, we discuss the relationship between investor sentiment and the financial crisis by analysing the optimal allocation. The results show that: when investor sentiment is low enough, the investor should reject the investment, this condition leads the depression financial market to prevail, then the financial crisis erupts; when investor sentiment is modest, the financial crisis is difficult to erupt unless the decline of investor sentiment is quick and deep; but there is a special status that the financial crisis is caused by other factors rather than by investor sentiment; and only improving investor sentiment cannot move away from the financial crisis.     

Richard H. Thaler: A Nobel Prize for Behavioural Economics

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an overview of Richard Thaler’s career and the contributions to behavioural economics that earned him the 2017 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It focuses on his role in exposing and making sense of empirical anomalies in orthodox economics, his analysis of mental accounting, and his work with Cass Sunstein on the notion of libertarian paternalism and the ‘nudge’-based behavioural approach to economic policy. It then considers his contributions critically and explores how, unlike previous behavioural economics, Thaler succeeded in getting his new approach to behavioural economics accepted by mainstream economists.     

Behavioural economics: Classical and modern

Abstract

In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the pioneering works of Herbert Simon and Ward Edwards, are traced and (critically) discussed. Two kinds of behavioural economics – classical and modern – are attributed, respectively, to the two pioneers. The mathematical foundations of classical behavioural economics are identified, largely, to be in the theory of computation and computational complexity; the mathematical basis for modern behavioural economics is claimed to be a notion of subjective probability. Individually rational economic theories of behaviour, with attempts to broaden – and deepen – the notion of rationality, challenging its orthodox variants, were decisively influenced by these two mathematical underpinnings.     

Beauty contested: how much of Keynes' remains in behavioural economics' beauty contests?

Abstract

In one of the most famous passages of the economic literature, John Maynard Keynes likens the stock market to a beauty contest (BC), in which the winners are those who anticipate the average opinion. In behavioural economics there have recently been attempts at investigating the BC experimentally. We argue that there exist important differences between Keynes' and behavioural economics' BCs. We identify several types of BCs and propose a taxonomy. We also suggest that, in spite of these differences, Keynes' theory of decision under uncertainty is central to understanding the actual behaviour observed in experimental BCs.     

Retail service quality,corporate image and behavioural intentions: the mediating effects of customer satisfaction

This study investigates the relationships between service quality, corporate image, satisfaction and behavioural intentions. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach is applied to test the proposed conceptual framework, using data collected from 404 supermarket customers in China. The structural model suggests that customer satisfaction fully mediates the impact of retail service quality on behavioural intentions (e.g. intention to recommend and repurchase). The results also indicate that retail service quality significantly influences customer perceptions of corporate image. The relationship between corporate image and behavioural intentions is fully mediated by satisfaction.