论保险法上的因果关系

我国保险法欠缺因果关系原则及规则,不能给保险业务和保险司法提供必要的准则。本文分析了海上保险中的近因原则、英美法系与大陆法系非海上保险的因果关系原则以及若干具体规则,主张海上保险应当继续借鉴英美法上的近因原则,非海上保险应当吸收民法中相当因果关系规则,同时保险法还应规定若干因果关系的具体规则。     

人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

2012年以来,人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势,升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动,灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构,使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现,反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强,也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动,增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化,文章提出相关政策建议。     

Calendar effects and the pricing of risk: the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.     

How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring “wealth effects” on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption “habits”) to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration‐based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.     

Trading behaviour connectedness across commodity markets: Evidence from the hedgers’ sentiment perspective

This paper analyses the connectedness network for commercial traders’ sentiment across agriculture, energy, metals and livestock futures markets. The findings find that: (a) producer/merchant/processor/user (PMPU) in agricultural and energy markets are mainly engaged in cross-hedging in the futures market, and most of them would avoid risks in these markets by operating in the metal markets, which can be considered safe for PMPU traders, and that the cross-hedging strategies may play the role of PMPU sentiment spillover across futures markets; (b) as index traders, the swap dealers operate more in two markets, namely between the agricultural and metal markets, or between the agricultural and energy markets; (c) the influence of geopolitical risks in some countries can affect the stability of energy markets, which in turn can cause PMPU system-wide connectedness.     

上证180指数成份股调整价格效应的实证研究——基于后经济危机时期的市场数据

本文在对国内外相关文献综述的基础上,对调整指数成份股的价格效应进行分析。在剔除了一系列特殊停牌的样本后,对国内上证180指数调整成份股事件对股票价格的影响进行实证研究,发现近年来成份股被调出后,其价格反转趋势愈加明显。     

福建省华侨农场养老保险改革评析

福建省在政策安排上对华侨农场养老保险改革有所优待,并体现了灵活务实、以人为本等政策特点。政策颁布后,经上级部门的重视和推动,以及各级政府的财政支持,如今福建省华侨农场职工已基本纳入省级统筹。当然,资金紧缺、层次较低、发展不平衡等后续问题仍然存在,需要进一步解决。