融资约束抑或过度投资——中国上市企业投资—现金流敏感度的经验证据

本文以中国上市企业为分析样本,通过检验现金持有量对投资—现金流敏感度的影响,考察企业中的融资约束和代理冲突。结果显示,融资约束与过度投资导致企业投资支出与内部现金流密切相关。民营企业、大规模地方国有企业中存在过度投资,所持有的现金具有明显的壕沟效应、进一步提高投资—现金流敏感度。而中、小规模国有企业面临的融资约束比较突出,为了抵御外部融资约束,持有现金充当对冲工具、降低投资—现金流敏感度。     

Cash Management of Malaysian Banks

ABSTRACT

This study aims to identify seasonal variations in the form of day of the week, month of the year, and time of the month effects on the demand and supply of cash based on daily cash data obtained from a sample of banks in Malaysia. This information would increase the efficiency of vault cash management policies of banks, which would in turn increase the profitability of banks since the degree to which banks optimize their vault cash holding has revenue and cost implications. These seasonal effects have been tested using the one-way ANOVA technique, and the findings revealed that the demand for general cash among Malaysian banks has been on the decline throughout the years due to the introduction of new channels of delivery. There was also sufficient statistical evidence, though to varying extent, that indicates the presence of month of the year and time of the month effects on bank's demand for and supply of cash.     

The fiscal cost of child grants in the context of high adult mortality in South Africa: A simulation to 2015

This paper investigates the expected costs of cash transfers to children in South Africa up to 2015. The child population is not expected to grow between 2008 and 2015 and thus the fiscal cost of the Child Support Grant is expected to stabilise in the near future. The other major child grant, the Foster Care Grant, is far less predictable – while it is not intended to be an orphan grant, three quarters of its beneficiaries are orphans. Because of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the number of dual orphans is expected to double between 2008 and 2015, reaching 1.3 million, and the overall number of orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) to reach 4.8 million by 2015. If the Foster Care Grant were to become a de facto orphan grant, its costs would escalate rapidly. The paper does not argue in favour of an orphan grant, but rather for greater effort in ensuring that the Child Support Grant reaches the neediest children, especially maternal orphans.     

CEO cash compensation determinants: an empirical examination of US airlines

This study empirically investigated the determinants of cash compensation for chief executive officers (CEOs) for US airlines in the post-9.11 period. After an analysis of 53 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2004, we found that the airline CEO cash compensation was positively correlated with the size and revenue efficiency of an airline firm whereas growth, debt use, profitability, and stock performance were irrelevant to the compensation. Larger airlines with better revenue-generating ability tended to offer high cash compensation to their CEOs. Our findings suggest that the pay-for-performance principle has yet to be fully implemented in the airlines industry. To minimize agency problems and enhance the firm value of US airlines, CEO compensation should be based not only on revenue efficiency but also on profitability and stock performance.     

大股东控制与现金持有价值关系的经验研究

本文以沪深两市2005—2010年391家上市公司为样本,检验了大股东控制对中国上市公司现金持有价值的影响。研究发现,第一大股东持股比例与企业价值间是一种近似U型的非线性关系,第一大股东持股比例的临界点为45%。将第一大股东持股比例与现金持有量的交互项引入模型,回归发现,当第一大股东持股比例小于45%时,交互项的系数显著为负,大股东控制的壕沟效应占主导;当第一大股东持股比例超过45%时,交互项的回归结果不显著。没有证据表明第一大股东性质会对企业价值发挥显著影响。     

对全部投资现金流量表计算指标的一些思考

根据实际筹资情况对全部投资现金流量表计算指标进行思考和修正，并对ＦＩＲＲ、ＦＮＰＶ和投资回收期等指标的理解给予通俗的解释。     

2010年3季度银行间市场运行报告

2010年第三季度,银行间市场创新频出、整体运行平稳。银行间外汇市场引入人民币兑林吉特交易,支持跨境贸易人民币结算业务的发展;人民银行发布通知允许境外人民币清算行等三类机构进入银行间债券市场,拓宽人民币回流渠道;银行间市场贷款转让业务上线交易,丰富银行业金融机构主动管理资产的手段。第三季度,货币市场资金面复杂多变,短期货币市场利率波动明显,市场交易大幅增长;银行间国债指数继续上行,债券交易增长明显;外汇市场上人民币汇率连创新高,价格波动较大,市场交易趋于谨慎;利率和汇率衍生品市场整体保持较快发展。     

Capital Cash Flows,APV and Valuation

This paper examines three different methods of valuing companies and projects: the adjusted present value (APV), capital cash flows (CCF) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) methods. It develops the appropriate WACC and beta leveraging formulae appropriate for each valuation model, so that given a particular valuation model the correct APV and CCF values can be determined from the WACC value and vice versa. Further it goes on to show when the perpetuity formulae give poor estimates of the value of individual cash flows, even though the overall values are correct. The paper cautions that the APV and CCF models require more information than is currently known, such as the value of the corporate use of debt, and consequently can give misleading results, particularly in sensitivity analyses.     

对企业并购估价中威斯通模型的进一步研究

威斯通模型是企业并购估值贴现现金流模型中具有代表性的研究。首先对超常增长而后无增长的威斯通模型作了一点修正;接着建立了企业在超常增长期采取不同投资策略时的估价模型;最后分析了新建模型与原模型的差异,并通过数例对两模型进行了敏感性分析。     

中国上市公司现金流管理研究——兼对中美市场现金流管理行为比较研究

This paper examines cash flow management in the Chinese market and compares it to that in the U.S. market. It adopts Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) and Degeorge et al.’s (1999) method and the best-fitted distribution model to analyze the financial data of Chinese listed firms during 1998–2005 and the forecasted cash flow per share (CPS) data for Chinese firms in the I/B/E/S database during 1993–2005. Results reveal that cash flows reports are not as reliable as people think, and managers manipulate cash flows just as they manipulate earnings. Further analyses show that zero point, last year’s cash flow and analyst cash flow forecast are the three thresholds that influence managers’ decision when they report cash flow performance. Over 16% of the firms with small positive cash flows manipulate their cash flow. Moreover, 16.64% of the firms with small changes in cash flow and 9.81% of the firms with small surprises manipulate cash flows to reach the targets. A comparative analysis shows that cash flow management behaviors around zero and zero changes are more prevalent in the Chinese market than in the U.S. market. Cash flow management around analyst cash flow forecasts, however, is no more prevalent than that in the U.S. market. Translated and revised from Zhongguo Kuaiji Pinglun 中国会计评论 (China Accounting Review), 2007, 5(3): 381–400