Coffee exports and industrialization in Brazil

We investigate the dynamic relationship between coffee exports and machinery imports in Brazil from 1869 to 1939. Our tests reveal cointegration and bidirectional causality in the temporal sense. This evidence suggests that foreign exchange real revenues from coffee exports were important for the onset of industrialization, as machinery imports proxy for real investment demand. Capital growth, in turn, also helped to boost the country’s exports.     

Is there any evidence of tax-and-spend,spend-and-tax or fiscal synchronization from panel of Indian state?

We examine the government revenue and government expenditure nexus using a panel of 26 Indian states from 1980–1981 to 2014–2015. While most of the previous literature claims that revenue and expenditure series are non-stationary at level, we employ both Narayan and Popp two structural break and cross-sectional augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) panel unit root tests, and found two series are stationary. Further, our results derived from Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test support the ‘fiscal synchronization’ hypothesis for Indian states. Finally, the revenue and expenditure of Indian state governments are segregated into revenue account and capital account, and again our results support the existence of ‘fiscal synchronization’ hypothesis.     

国际金融服务贸易中商业存在规模的决定因素——基于我国银行业1985～2007年数据的Granger因果检验

在东道国设立"商业存在"是WTO金融服务贸易商重要的贸易方式,本文利用我国银行业的数据,创新性地针对影响外国银行"商业存在"规模与其决定因素之间的因果关系进行研究。通过协整检验及Granger因果检验发现,1985～2007年间,推动在我国设立的外国银行"商业存在"规模增长的主要因素是外国直接投资,而市场准入承诺、对外贸易规模以及我国银行业的平均盈利水平对"商业存在"规模的影响较小,同时,我国国民收入提高促进了外国银行"商业存在"及其主要影响因素进行了实证分析,研究发现:外国直接投资的增长推动了在我国设立的规模增长,反之亦然。     

Research on the time-varying effects among green finance markets in China: A fresh evidence from multi-frequency scale perspective

Green finance is an essential instrument for achieving sustainable development. Objectively addressing correlations among different green finance markets is conducive to the risk management of investors and regulators. This paper presents evidence on the time-varying correlation effects and causality among the green bond market, green stock market, carbon market, and clean energy market in China at multi-frequency scales by combining the methods of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Method (EEMD), Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model, Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility Model (TVP-VAR-SV), and Time-varying Causality Test. In general, the significant negative time-varying correlations among most green finance markets indicate a prominent benefit of risk hedging and portfolio diversification among green financial assets. In specific, for different time points and lag periods, the green finance market shock has obvious time-varying, positive and negative alternating effects in the short-term scales, while its time delay and persistence are more pronounced in the medium-term and long-term scales. Interestingly, a positive event shock will generate positive connectivity among most green finance markets, whereas a negative event including the China/U.S. trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic may exacerbate the reverse linkage among green finance markets. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality of “green bond market - carbon market - green stock and clean energy markets” was established during 2018–2019.     

Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment,economic policy uncertainty,and stock index fluctuations

This research applies quantile Granger causality and impulse-response analyses to evaluate the causal linkages among Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and S&P 500 indices across the U.S. stock market cycles. We present notable evidence of bi-directional causality among cyclical components of Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and S&P 500 indices for most quantiles. The causal linkage of Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and S&P 500 indices identified in this study reconciles the so-called Easterlin Paradox and Easterlin Illusion arguments from previous studies on income-happiness relationship. Moreover, given a high (low) EPU level, the positive (negative) impulse-response effects between the Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and the S&P 500 indices are justified during a stock market bust cycle, but the signs of these correlations change to negative (positive) during a stock market boom cycle. These findings imply that investors’ hedging strategies can be linked to the surveillance of the Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment index.     

Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis

In this paper, we investigate China’s changing financial interconnectedness via the presence of Granger-causality between firm level factors (Leverage, Market To Book Value and Returns) and systemic risk measures ($\Delta$CoVaR, MES, and SRISK ). The analysis is based on 161 Chinese financial intermediaries (14 Traditional Banks, 16 Finance Services, 131 Real Estate Finance Developers) continuously listed over the period 2007:1–2021:1. We find that, in addition to traditional banks, finance companies and real estate finance developers pose systemic threats to the Chinese financial system, in particular during the Global Financial Crisis and the 2015 Chinese stock crash. Finally, the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has put under strain the Chinese financial system, in particular the finance services.     

天津市技术市场发展原因探析

采用相关分析、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等定量分析方法对天津市技术市场与经济发展、技术创新之间的关系进行了深入研究,并得出结论,天津市技术市场的发展仍为需求拉动型,而不是技术推动型。     

中美股市间的联动性变化分析

将中国加入WTO后至今中美股市的数据以2005年为界划分为两部分,研究了中国入市后中美股市联动性的发展变化。研究结果表明,2005年以前中美股市没有显著的联动性,但2005年以后至今中美股市之间存在比较弱的联动性,而且表现出相互影响的特征。     

电商平台算法歧视法律救济的困境与出路

由于“算法黑箱”的存在,算法歧视问题上的技术性因果关系论证和在此基础上的个体责任边界划分存在障碍,加之信息的不对称以及用户专业技术知识的匮乏,用户在寻求法律救济方面陷入困局。电商平台算法歧视问题的解决,应当摆脱对算法黑箱领域因果关系问题的无休止讨论,将研究视角从“技术层面的因果论证”转向“事实层面的不当得利分析”,从群体视角的“责任划界”转向个体视角的“责任分配”。