The Effect of Risk Characteristics on the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions from Electric Power Generation

The objective of this study is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the reduction of mortality risks caused by fossil fuel (natural gas, coal and oil) versus nuclear electric power generation systems and to examine the influence of risk characteristics involved with electric power generation on WTP. A choice experiment was conducted to achieve these objectives. The attributes for nuclear risks in the experiment included the probability of disasters and the expected losses if a disaster occurs. We find evidence of (i) a baseline effect (where WTP is sensitive to hypothetical versus actual baseline expected mortality); (ii) a ‘labeling effect,’ where, surprisingly, the term ‘nuclear’ has no effect on WTP, but the term ‘fossil-fueled power generation’ results in lower WTP; and (iii) disaster aversion, meaning that people focus on the conditional loss from a nuclear disaster, not the probability. We also find that the WTP for reducing deaths from a nuclear disaster is about 60 times the WTP for routine reducing fossil-fuel generation-related deaths.     

Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R&D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R&D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does.     

考虑违约距离的上市公司危机预警模型研究

在上市公司财务危机预警中,违约距离起着重要的不可替代的作用,仅考虑财务指标并不足以完全解释企业财务危机发生的原因.文章应用Merton模型对2002～2004年ST公司和相应配对公司的危机发生之前的违约距离进行了研究,发现危机公司违约距离在危机发生前第三年明显低于正常公司的相应值,违约距离比传统财务指标能更早地预警到企业财务危机的发生.结合违约距离因素的危机预警模型能更明显地提高模型的危机判断正确率.     

海洋经济可持续开发目标保证体系的探索

21世纪，人类将运用高科技对海洋资源进一步有效地开发，但在开发利用的同时又存在对海洋资源的破坏、污染问题。应如何建立可持续开发利用海洋资源的产业目标保证体系问题进行了较深入的探究。     

Jointness in production and farmers' willingness to supply non-marketed ecosystem services

This paper highlights how farmers' willingness to supply non-marketed ecosystem services (ES) is influenced by whether or not the non-marketed ES are produced jointly with agricultural products. When marketed products and non-marketed ES share some production inputs the production relationships between the two may be complementary, competitive or substitutive. Using a cost minimization framework, it is shown how complementary relationships lead to costless voluntary provision of non-marketed ES (typically the case for ES that are supportive of provisioning ES for marketed farm products). It is also shown how competitive production relationships lead to provision of non-marketed ES at lower cost than when non-marketed ES are direct substitutes for farm products or are produced outside of agriculture. The paper closes by showing how the minimum willingness to accept (WTA) payment for ES that are complementary/competitive is less than or equal to the minimum WTA for the same ES produced in substitute or independent production relationships.     

我国现行环境政策调整与出口产品“环境竞争力”的提升

加入WTO后,我国要在该组织框架下接受贸易自由化与环境保护两股潮流的双重挑战,应对发达国家层出不穷的绿色贸易壁垒。如何合理调整国内现行的一些与WTO规则相矛盾的环境政策,提升出口产品的环境竞争力,促进我国经济与社会的可持续发展,将是我国加入WTO后急需解决的新问题。本文在对环境竞争力概念进行分析的基础上,界定了影响环境竞争力的主要因素。从国际、国内两个方面论述了当前我国环境政策所面临的挑战,及其调整方向。进而,提出今后提高我国出口产品环境竞争力的对策建议。     

技术性贸易壁垒内涵辨正

进入21世纪以来，技术性贸易壁垒替代反倾销成为我国面临的第一大非关税壁垒。但是对于技术性贸易壁垒，世界贸易组织框架下的相关协议，即《技术性贸易壁垒协议》和《实施卫生和植物卫生措施协议》，并没有做出明确的定义。因此，在分析世贸组织相关协议和判例的基础上，提炼出技术性贸易壁垒的内核，以对技术性贸易壁垒的含义加以澄清并重新认识，对于我国具有重大而深远的意义。     

对马克思按分配原则的反思

马克思的劳动价值论不仅是剩余价值的理论基础和分析资本主义分配的理论依据，同时也是马克思设想的社会主义按劳分配的逻辑起点。只是以往我们对按劳分配原则的最本质的含义理解不够透彻。实质上，应该说马克思设想的按劳分配原则最本质的内容包括三点，即在未来的社会主义社会中，个人消费品的分配以劳动量的大小为依据，等量劳动获取等量报酬，承认能力本位。在社会主义市场经济条件下的按劳分配原则，仍然没有偏离这三点本质的含义，但已经有了新的特点和形式。     

中国发展知识经济的空间结构

发展知识经济可以有效解决中国所面临的诸多挑战。文章探讨了经济发展的空间结构理论、城市与现代经济的关系、中国发展知识经济的路径选择,提出中国发展知识经济的空间结构是“升岛成陆”,即以各级有条件的城市特别是大城市为主先行发展知识经济,然后带动其它地区,扩大发展知识经济的区域,从而最终像地球科学中的升岛成陆造地运动一样,实现全国发展知识经济。同时,要通过行政区划制度创新促进这一进程,要将一些大城市升格为直辖市。     

A brief technology assessment of the Carbon Dioxide effect

Significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are occuring as a result of fossil fuel combustion. More than a four-fold increase over preindustrial levels may occur by the year 2100. Heating of the atmosphere, changes in precipitation patterns and global storm paths, and other resulting effects are sure to cause significant social changes. This article is essentially a methodological case study demonstrating a useful but inexpensive type of technology assessment. It summarizes current research findings on “the CO₂ effect,” and presents hitherto unpublished findings that resulted from a brief but systems-oriented approach. These findings suggest that most published forecasts of phenomena associated with a CO₂ buildup may be systematically low because various positive feedback relationships are not reflected.