Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach

It is commonly observed that high grade loans with better ratings are often associated with low recoveries if they default (i.e. with relatively high loss-given-default (LGD)). To address the mismatch problem, this paper proposes a credit risk approach by minimizing LGD for higher rated loans as a risk-rating matching standard in the sense that the decreasing LGD from creditors’ perspective is associated with higher credit rating for the borrower. This standard forces customers’ credit rating of each grade to be optimally determined in correspondence to its LGD, which means the LGD of high grade loans tends to be low. The approach is then tested using three credit datasets from China, i.e. credit data from 2044 farmers, 2157 small private businesses and 3111 SMEs. The empirical results show that the proposed approach indeed guides the way to solve the mismatch phenomenon between credit ratings and LGDs in the existing credit rating literature. By optimally determining credit ratings, the findings derived from this paper help provide a valuable reference for bankers, and bond investors to manage their credit risk.     

Extendible stock loan

In this paper, the model of extendible stock loan with forbearance is proposed. The loan is extendible, so as to prevent immediate losses or to prevent subsequent price drop; while the forbearance is granted only when the pledged share’s value is above threshold, so as to mitigate the risk-taking behavior induced by the extension. The non-synchronization of the liquidation of insolvent stock loans also alleviates the downward leverage spiral in a market downturn. Numerical analysis shows that fair extendible stock loan rates increase with the forbearance level as well as extension period, and loan rates are quite sensitive to the change of asset volatility and debt ratio. For lenders waiving the interest rates during extension period, their burden grows with extension rapidly when they grant looser forbearance and when asset volatility or loan-to-value is higher. Some suggestions are made accordingly. First, lenders offering uniform extendible loan rate can let borrowers choose between looser forbearance with shorter extension, or tighter forbearance with longer extension. Second, if the loan rate is priced fairly, lower margin requirement can only be accomplished with tighter forbearance. More looser forbearance worth higher rates.     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统"防火墙"。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。     

ARBITRAGE‐FREE BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION UNDER COLLATERALIZATION AND APPLICATION TO CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples.     

如何有效降低银行对小微企业抵押物要求——基于贷款技术的视角

在理论分析抵押物作用机制的基础上，实证研究能够有效替代抵押物的贷款技术，并进一步分析某些贷款技术难以发挥替代作用的可能原因，以降低银行对小微企业抵押物要求，从而缓解小微企业信贷配给。研究结论表明：抵押率与借款企业违约风险显著负相关，抵押物作用机制中客户选择效应占主导地位；关系型和担保型贷款技术可以显著降低银行对抵押物要求，而财务报表型和信用评级型贷款技术对抵押物的替代效应十分微弱；随着金融基础设施的完善，信用评级型贷款技术对抵押物的替代效应逐渐显现，但财务报表即使经过审计亦难以对抵押物形成有效替代。在此基础上，提出了完善金融基础设施、提高贷款技术事前甄别能力的政策建议。     

制度环境、审计意见与银行贷款——来自中国上市家族企业的经验证据

以中国上市家族企业为研究样本,结合企业所处的制度环境(法制环境、金融市场化水平、政府干预程度)进行实证检验,结果显示:上市家族企业所处地区的法制环境较好,或金融市场化水平较高,标准无保留审计意见具有一定的信号显示效应,部分抵减了其披露制约效应;在政府干预的环境下,不同类型的审计意见对企业获得银行贷款没有影响,在这种条件下,审计意见不是商业银行授信时要考虑的一个重要因素;审计意见对企业获得银行贷款的影响表现在短期贷款上,对长期贷款没有影响,即商业银行在长期贷款授信时不关注借款企业的审计意见类型。     

浅析如何改进我国商业银行信用风险管理方法

本文以商业银行信用风险管理为切入点,对我国信用风险管理的现状和问题进行探讨。文章介绍了我国商业银行目前使用的两种信用风险管理方法——客户信用评级法和贷款风险分类法,分析其存在的问题,并对完善我国商业银行信用风险管理提出了对策建议。     

市场化进程、环境信息披露与绿色信贷

本文基于中国资本市场的经验数据,并考虑了产权性质和市场化程度差异的影响,研究了我国商业银行贷款决策与环境信息披露的关系。结果发现,环保企业能获取更优惠的银行信贷,即绿色信贷是客观存在的,但其效果仅表现在环境信息披露不过度及市场化进程高的地区的情形下。上述研究发现对于构建和完善我国商业银行的绿色信贷机制建设,实现其可持续发展具有重要意义。     

从财政分权看我国地方政府发行公债的必要性

举债权是规范的分税制赋予地方政府应有的财权。在财政分权的框架下,一级政权,一级事权,一级财权是题中之义。本文首先从财政分权理论出发,指出发行市政债是地方融资平台的替代措施。