构建高校大学生党员教育新模式探索

为进一步提升高校党建实效,高校大学生党员教育工作亟待创新型机制,笔者以高校志愿工作为突破口,通过分析志愿工作之现状,探索其和学生党员教育工作的联动机制,旨在为当前学生党员教育工作注入新的生机和活力。     

Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition

The 2018 M4 Forecasting Competition was the first M Competition to elicit prediction intervals in addition to point estimates. We take a closer look at the twenty valid interval submissions by examining the calibration and accuracy of the prediction intervals and evaluating their performances over different time horizons. Overall, the submissions fail to estimate the uncertainty properly. Importantly, we investigate the benefits of interval combination using six recently-proposed heuristics that can be applied prior to learning about the realizations of the quantities. Our results suggest that interval aggregation offers improvements in terms of both calibration and accuracy. While averaging interval endpoints maintains its practical appeal as being simple to implement and performs quite well when data sets are large, the median and the interior trimmed average are found to be robust aggregators for the prediction interval submissions across all 100,000 time series.     

Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan

In this paper, we discuss the approaches to nowcasting Japan’s GDP quarterly growth rates, comparing a variety of mixed frequency approaches including a bridge equation approach, Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) and factor-augmented version of these approaches. In doing so, we examine the usefulness of a novel sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) approach in extracting factors from the dataset. We also discuss the usefulness of forecast combination, considering various ways to combine forecasts from models and surveys. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, some of the mixed frequency models discussed in this paper record out-of-sample performance superior to a naïve constant growth model. Second, albeit small, the SPCA approach of extracting factors improves predictive power compared with traditional principal component approach. Furthermore, we find that there is a gain from combining model forecasts and professional survey forecasts.     

基于6σ的企业流程再造

文章分析了6σ和企业流程再造（BPR）的共性和一致性,指出6σ可为BPR提供规范化原则和标准化框架,可为BPR提供更加有效的步骤和工具。最后,对基于6σ的BPR具体实施问题作了探讨。     

企业社会责任与企业治理整合研究

为了推动企业社会责任的发展,迫切需要将企业社会责任与企业治理相整合.这不仅是一个现实选择的问题,而且是一个理论上有待于研究并给予明确回答的问题.通过对这一问题的探讨,认为两者整合的客观基础是企业社会责任发展中存在的外部性问题;两者整合的理论是利益相关者理论;两者整合的实现机制是建立利益相关者共同治理模式.     

一种改进的证据冲突衡量因子

为解决证据融合时证据间冲突衡量不准确问题,提出了一种新的证据冲突衡量方法。对当前冲突衡量方法国内外研究现状进行总结,结合典型算例分析,指出了当前方法存在的主要问题。基于前人研究成果,提出了一种改进冲突因子用于衡量证据间冲突,主要基于修正证据距离与合取冲突,对两者采用加性组合。通过一般类型算例与特殊类型算例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明改进的冲突衡量因子能够准确衡量证据间冲突,并具有普适性。     

基于组合赋权法的多谐波源责任综合评估

为区分多谐波源负荷对公共点的谐波责任,提出一种基于组合赋权法的多谐波源责任综合评估方法。将各次谐波电压含有率作为评估指标,采用优序图与熵权的组合赋权法得到的综合评价结果对谐波电压等级进行评估:定性分析了各负荷应负的谐波电压责任,定量比较了根据组合赋权法求得的加权谐波电压值。从主、客观方面采用组合赋权法对含有多谐波源系统进行责任综合评估,其评估结果客观、合理,具有一定的工程实际意义。     

环太湖旅游带旅游业联合发展战略初探

本文分析了环太湖旅游带旅游业联合发展的三大优势,提出了区域联合、整体协进、统筹规划、严格保护、合理开发、永续利用的战略思想,明确了战略重点,并提出了旅游业联合发展的主要措施。     

基于多因素的油田自动化仪表性价比综合评价方法

近年来,油田自动化仪表智能运维技术越来越受到重视,仪表的综合性价比评价是仪表运维的重要内容之一。传统的关于仪表性价比方面的评价大多基于专家系统,结合胜利油田自动化仪表运维数据,通过建立仪表性价比评价指标体系,结合层次分析法和熵权法结合的组合权重方法,建立了一种基于多因素的油田自动化仪表性价比综合评价方法。该方法可以作为油田现场自动化仪表选型、运行和维护的重要依据,对提高自动化仪表的智能运维水平、降低成本等都具有重要意义。     

我国股市全流通态势下积极型组合战略研究--积极/消极型组合战略选择的方法与思路

我国股票市场在全流通态势下,投资组合管理战略思想要着眼于长期投资战略目标,采用合适的方法来规划投资组合管理的全过程.实施积极型投资组合战略,主要取决于权益组合管理的战略思想.