房地产价格风险：国际教训、中国的现状及路径选择

房地产泡沫会增加金融风险,房价大幅缩水会导致银行破产,股市下跌。日本、美国、英国、泰国等都爆发过与房地产相关的银行危机。目前,中国房地产金融具有市场风险、财务风险、道德风险和信用风险等潜在风险。应利用税收手段限制投机性购房和短期炒作行为,鼓励中小户型住房的消费,加强城镇廉租住房制度建设,防范“假按揭”风险,完善惩戒机制,加强利率风险管理,完善住房置业担保制度,进一步研究制定房贷保险制度。     

Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

民营经济发展战略研究

当前,国内民营经济发展主要有三种模式,即温州模式、苏南模式和青浦模式.三种模式对发展我国民营经济都具有借鉴意义,但不能照搬照抄.民营经济发展战略是一项复杂的系统工程,民营经济发展可采取集团化战略、多元化战略、融资战略、人力资源开发战略等四种战略,这四种战略都具有现实意义.     

Estimating Willingness to Pay for Improved Drinking Water Quality Using Averting Behavior Method with Perception Measure

This paper suggests an application of an averting behaviormethod to reconcile inconsistent public activity with objectiveenvironmental risk. In Korea, an historically polluted watersupply has created citizen resistance to using tap water. Koreansperceive low quality levels for tap water, although objectivelymeasured data show that the pollution levels are lower than theacceptable risk. We hypothesized that the irrational aversion tousing tap water is a consequence of inconsistencies between theobjectively measured and perceived pollution levels. We introducethe perception averting behavior method, in which we add aperception measure unit to the conventional averting behaviormethod. We found that the perception measure provided a validexplanation for citizens' aversion to using tap water in Korea.     

基于协同平台的高校教师科研绩效评价体系

在研究组织人员行为绩效评价体系的基础上,分析了传统的KPI(key performance indicator)评价方式所面临的主要问题,提出针对高校教师科研绩效进行分类建模,并设计相应的绩效指标、绩效算法及评价体系来解决问题。最后,用某院教职工2015—2019年在协同信息管理平台上的行为数据,检验了该体系的有效性及合理性,并针对基于协同平台的高校教师科研绩效评价体系的结果分析,提出高校科研管理及绩效激励方案。     

Expressive Constitutionalism

We argue that the standard Constitutional Political Economy defence of constitutionalism, that derives from an argument relating to the shift from narrowly self-interested motivations in the in-period context to relatively general-interest decision making in the constitutional context, is flawed precisely because it is intended to relate to essentially political settings where decision making must be construed as collective in nature. We suggest an alternate account of expressive constitutionalism that points to a specific defence of constitutional conventions that are insulated from popular voting.     

绿色财务管理的短期均衡分析

当前,生态问题日趋严重,这种状况的形成主要是人类自身行为造成的,人们虽然已经越来越多地认识到其危害性,但是在经济利益的驱使下,人类的这种破坏行为并没有真正停止或减少。作为微观经济主体的企业,它的行为对生态问题的影响非常重要,所以必须改变企业的经济行为。作为经济主体其目标就是为了获取经济利益,只有保证其有一定经济利益的情况下,来改变其行为以利于解决生态问题才是可行的。鉴于此,本文从市场上各类企业的经济行为特点入手,来探讨解决问题的途径。     

收入因素与中国劣质品市场的部分逆向选择

基于Akerlof逆向选择模型,引入收入因素对其分析,通过说明收入因素影响消费偏好,进而改变消费者的无差异曲线,建立一个有限次交易后最终达到非零均衡的部分逆向选择的基本模型,并着重从这一侧面,即收入因素的影响,分析为什么在中国劣质品市场会长期存在。研究表明：购买偏好因收入增加而改变明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加人们的收入水平;购买偏好随收入增加改变不明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加外部干预。     

Introduction to Repeated Games with Private Monitoring

We present a brief overview of recent developments in discounted repeated games with (imperfect) private monitoring. The literature explores the possibility of cooperation in a long-term relationship, where each agent receives imperfect private information about the opponents' actions. Although this class of games admits a wide range of applications such as collusion under secret price-cutting, exchange of goods with uncertain quality, and observation errors, it has fairly complex mathematical structure due to the lack of common information shared by players. This is in sharp contrast to the well-explored case of repeated games under public information (with the celebrated Folk Theorems), and until recently little had been known about the private monitoring case. However, rapid developments in the past few years have revealed the possibility of cooperation under private monitoring for some class of games. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73, D43, D82, L13, L41.     

Societal preferences for fertility treatment in Australia: a stated preference discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate preferences for fertility treatment from the Australian general population with the aims of calculating the willingness to pay in tax contribution for attributes (characteristics) that make up treatment and for an “ideal” fertility treatment program. We also assessed whether willingness-to-pay varies by the relationship status or sexual orientation of the patient.

Methods: A stated preference discrete choice experiment was administered to a panel of 801 individuals representative of the Australian general population. Seven attributes of fertility treatment under three broad categories were included: outcome, process, and cost. Attributes were identified through published literature, focus group discussions, expert knowledge, and a pilot study. A Bayesian fractional experimental design was used, and data analysis was performed using a generalized multinomial logit model. Further analyses included interaction terms and latent class modeling.

Results: Six of the seven attributes influenced the choice of a treatment program. Under process attributes, individuals preferred: continuity of care of clinic staff, where patients are seen by the same doctor but different nurses at each visit; “alternative” treatments being offered to all patients; and onsite clinic counseling and peer-support groups. Personalization and tailoring of the treatment journey were not important. Among outcome attributes, the improved success rate of having a baby per cycle and significant side-effects were considered important. Cost of treatment also influenced the choice of treatment program. Individual preferences for fertility treatment were not associated with patients’ relationship status or sexual orientation. Latent class modeling revealed sub-groups with distinct fertility treatment preferences.

Conclusion: This study provides important insights into the attributes that influence the preferences of fertility treatment in Australia. It also estimates socially-inclusive willingness-to-pay values in tax contributions for an “ideal” package of treatment. The results can inform economic evaluations of fertility treatment programs.