特别国债：中国实践、抗疫应用与制度优化

特别国债是针对特殊事项而专门发行的国债产品,与一般国债相比,其审批和发行更为便捷,资金募集更为迅速,预算管理更具弹性,资金投向也更为明确,有利于快速弥补财政资金缺口,有效应对突发危机或处理特殊事项,但也存在冲击市场流动性、增加国家债务偿付风险以及破坏债券定价机制等潜在风险。改革开放以来,中国发行的前三次特别国债主要是为国有金融机构注资,发行方式从单期发行向多期发行、从定向发行向定向发行与公开发行相结合演进。抗疫特别国债是为应对重大公共卫生危机全额公开发行的特别国债,其政策框架整体审慎,资金投向明确,有利于更有效地防控疫情和快速恢复经济;同时,在较短时间内完成1万亿元特别国债的全额公开发行,也对金融市场流动性造成了一定的冲击,国债收益率短期内较大幅度上升。特别国债政策的应用,应注意财政政策与货币政策的协调和配合,稳定短期流动性,引导中长期利率,匹配总量性与结构性,统筹常规政策的有效性边界与非常规政策的应急性适用,以维护金融市场的稳定和健康发展;同时,特别国债资金的投放应体现时效性、针对性和结构性,要加大风险管控力度,完善资金投放监督管理机制,提高资金使用效率,以充分发挥特别国债资金的乘数效应。     

债券市场产品的国际比较及其多维度改进

通过对两种市场中各种债券类型在期限结构、利率结构、交易平台、和债券持有者构成等方面的对比,可以看出中国债券产品的种类、结构都比较单一;产品和技术创新不够;政策支持不灵活;交易平台、中介机构的建设还没有跟上。尽管如此,中国债券市场未来的发展空间仍然巨大。     

ON INCOMPLETENESS OF BOND MARKETS WITH INFINITE NUMBER OF RANDOM FACTORS

The completeness of a bond market model with infinite number of sources of randomness on a finite time interval in the Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework is studied. It is proved that the market is not complete. A construction of a bounded contingent claim, which cannot be replicated, is provided.     

会计准则国际化与发展中的企业债券市场

我国企业债券市场的发展进程相对缓慢,过多的政府管制常被认为是主要原因。然而,一味放松管制未必能取得理想中的结果,管制的根本原因在于信息流通与定价阻碍。文章认为,会计准则国际化的影响不仅仅体现在企业层面,准则中全面的信息披露制度以及广泛地采用公允价值等基本理念,对于突破债券市场发展的信息缺乏、定价阻碍和评级失效等制度瓶颈具有根本的作用,并将积极促进债券市场的繁荣与发展。     

自愿披露客户信息影响了债券违约风险吗？

以2010—2021年沪深A股上市公司发行的公司债为样本,实证检验了自愿披露客户信息对债券违约风险的影响。研究发现,自愿披露客户信息产生的额外风险加剧了债券违约风险,这种影响在高专有成本和高融资约束的企业中表现更为显著,但企业发行的绿色债券并未受到影响。机制检验表明,经营风险增加和机构投资者持股降低是自愿披露客户信息影响债券违约风险的重要途径。研究表明,企业需要慎重考虑披露客户信息带来的风险,审慎制定信息披露策略。     

Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank versus Bond Finance

How does uncertainty affect the costs of raising finance in the bond market and via bank loans? Empirically, this paper finds that heightened uncertainty is accompanied by an increase in corporate bond spreads, whereas spreads on bank loans remain unchanged. This finding can be explained with a model that includes costly state verification and in which banks maintain long-term relationships with borrowers and acquire information beyond what is publicly available. After an unexpected increase in uncertainty, the probability of borrower default increases. Banks leave the loan spread unchanged to maintain the relationship. In contrast, bond spreads increase because investors demand compensation for the increased default risk.     

The 1932 Federal Reserve Open-Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing

The $1 billion open-market operation conducted by the Federal Reserve, at the height of the Great Depression, was a successful precedent to the recent Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. The 1932 program entailed large purchases of medium- and long-term securities over a 4-month period. An event study analysis indicates that the program dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields. A segmented markets model is used to analyze the effects of the open-market purchases on the economy. A significant degree of financial market segmentation is estimated, and partly explains the observed upturn in output growth. Had the Federal Reserve continued its operations and used the announcement strategy used in QE1, the Great Contraction could have been attenuated earlier. Our historical analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve in 2008 had a good predecessor to its actions.     

Research on the time-varying effects among green finance markets in China: A fresh evidence from multi-frequency scale perspective

Green finance is an essential instrument for achieving sustainable development. Objectively addressing correlations among different green finance markets is conducive to the risk management of investors and regulators. This paper presents evidence on the time-varying correlation effects and causality among the green bond market, green stock market, carbon market, and clean energy market in China at multi-frequency scales by combining the methods of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Method (EEMD), Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model, Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility Model (TVP-VAR-SV), and Time-varying Causality Test. In general, the significant negative time-varying correlations among most green finance markets indicate a prominent benefit of risk hedging and portfolio diversification among green financial assets. In specific, for different time points and lag periods, the green finance market shock has obvious time-varying, positive and negative alternating effects in the short-term scales, while its time delay and persistence are more pronounced in the medium-term and long-term scales. Interestingly, a positive event shock will generate positive connectivity among most green finance markets, whereas a negative event including the China/U.S. trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic may exacerbate the reverse linkage among green finance markets. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality of “green bond market - carbon market - green stock and clean energy markets” was established during 2018–2019.     

公开发行债券能提高企业创新产出吗？

以2006—2021年我国A股上市公司为样本，探讨了企业首次发行债券如何影响企业的创新水平。研究发现，企业首次公开发行债券能够显著提升企业的创新水平。机制分析结果表明,企业发行债券通过建立替代性融资渠道缓解融资约束，延长整体债务期限，提高信息披露水平这三个路径来提升企业创新水平。进一步研究发现,在控制了企业后续发债行为后，公开发行债券与企业创新的关系仍然存在；相比于公司债，企业首次发行债券种类为中期票据和企业债时，企业创新水平提升更显著；企业首次发行债券时，债券信用评级越高、发行利率越低，对于企业创新水平的提升越显著。研究结论丰富了债券市场经济后果的研究，也为企业创新发展和实现经济高质量发展提供了来自债券市场的建议。