The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.     

西方货币政策有效性理论综述

本文从西方经济学家对市场是否出清和要素价格变化是否完全弹性观点得出的货币政策是否有效结合的角度，来论述货币政策有效性理论。     

The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

Are We Better Off if Our Politicians Have More Information?

The model of public policy studied in this paper has heterogeneous citizens/voters and two public goods: one (roads) chosen directly by an elected policy‐maker, and the other (pollution) stochastically dependent on the amount of roads. Both a one‐country and a two‐country version of the model are analyzed; the latter displays externalities across the countries which create incentives for free riding and strategic delegation. The welfare effects of providing the policy‐maker with information about the relationship between roads and pollution are investigated, and it is shown that more information hurts some—sometimes even all—citizens. In particular, the opportunity not to create an institution for information gathering can serve as a commitment device for a country, although with the unfortunate effect of making the overall outcome even worse. Implications for the welfare effects of “informational lobbying” are also discussed.     

对加拿大货币需求的数量分析

在特定的经济条件下，全社会货币需求量以及这个量的变动规律，是一国政府制定并执行货币政策和财政政策时所要考虑的重要参数。战后以来，西方国家政府一般是通过货币政策和财政政策的执行，最终影响产出量和就业水平。分析影响货币需求变动的因素及其变量之间的数量关系，是正确地预测货币需求变动的关键。加拿大的货币需求与其相关的经济因素之间的关系；加拿大货币供求与经济增长之间的关系。     

汇率波动模型与人民币汇率调整新趋势

文章对四种汇率波动模型进行简要介绍与说明,指出中国渐进式的改革和开放决定了入世后人民币汇率的制度调整也应是渐进式的,现阶段人民币汇率制度的选择应实行目标区汇率制。     

The composition of interest: The judaic prohibition

An interest charge is made up of an award for waiting known as the real rate of interest, a premium for risk and compensation for transaction costs. Where inflation exists the lender seeks further compensation. In order to understand the composition and evolution of different versions of the usury prohibition it is necessary to ask which components of an interest charge are prohibited by each version. The Judaic prohibition has two aspects which are of particular interest to business historians and students of usury. First, the general rule is that a reward for waiting is prohibited. This focuses on the time-based part of interest charge. Second, interest is prohibited because it amounts to placing a stumbling block before the blind. This focuses on the typical gullibility of the borrower confronted by a more expert, better funded lender. Economics confirms and enriches our understanding of these important aspects of the prohibition. They achieve this by increasing our understanding of two facts: first, that the borrower is a gullible individual subject to irrational and inconsistent behaviour; and, second, that this behaviour relates to the waiting aspect of interest which is proscribed in the prohibition. How far these insights apply to other civilisations' prohibition, particularly those which derive from the Judaic prohibition, merits further study; so also do the ethical lessons of the Mosaic rules for a globalised society based on capitalism.     

China＇s Social Security： Case Studies of the Interest Groups and Policy Monopoly

This section introduces an asymmetric information model to analyze the interest groups and policy monopoly in social security management, mainly focusing on the relation between the interest groups in the social security products market and the social security government institutions at the central level, namely the major social security policy makers.     

土工实验中的液、塑限测定浅议

文章分析了当前土工实验中的液、塑限测定过程中应当注意的问题及其存在的问题,并论述了如何对其实验数据进行处理和分析的方法。     

基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。