The Credit Channel at the Zero Lower Bound through the Lens of Equity Prices

This study examines the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the stock market when the short‐term nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Unconventional monetary policies appear to have significant effects on stock prices and the effects differ across stocks. In agreement with existing credit channel theories, I find that firms subject to financial constraints react more strongly to unconventional monetary policy shocks [especially large‐scale asset purchases (LSAPs)] than do less constrained firms. These results imply that the credit channel is as important as the interest rate channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB.     

Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications

In this paper, we study the family of renewal shot-noise processes. The Feynmann–Kac formula is obtained based on the piecewise deterministic Markov process theory and the martingale methodology. We then derive the Laplace transforms of the conditional moments and asymptotic moments of the processes. In general, by inverting the Laplace transforms, the asymptotic moments and the first conditional moments can be derived explicitly; however, other conditional moments may need to be estimated numerically. As an example, we develop a very efficient and general algorithm of Monte Carlo exact simulation for estimating the second conditional moments. The results can be then easily transformed to the counterparts of discounted aggregate claims for insurance applications, and we apply the first two conditional moments for the actuarial net premium calculation. Similarly, they can also be applied to credit risk and reliability modelling. Numerical examples with four distribution choices for interarrival times are provided to illustrate how the models can be implemented.     

Examining the disclosures on the websites of English credit unions

This paper examines the disclosures made on English credit unions’ websites. Credit unions without a website are presumed to be small. Community credit unions with websites tend to offer basic services with a limited range of products that may appeal to poorer members of society. Occupational credit unions appear more likely to have a greater range of products.     

银保协作、风险自留与银行信用风险补偿——基于银保信贷系统的分析视角

在分析风险自留的内生逻辑基础上,进一步分析风险自留实现银行信用风险补偿的内在机理。研究表明：银保信贷系统通过对贷款企业个体风险与事先设定的平均代偿风险的匹配性甄别,实现对银行信用风险的分级补偿功能。针对银行超预期信用风险,先行实施银行风险拨备机制对银行平均代偿风险进行补偿,然后实施超额风险自留机制对超过平均代偿风险的银行超额风险部分再次进行补偿,超额风险自留补偿基金将由银行与担保机构依据各自的风险均衡配置阈值占比共同筹集,以此来实现银行信用风险分级补偿目标。并以此为依据,设计了银保信贷系统风险自留机制。     

Hot money in disaggregated capital flows

We explore the possible existence and behavior of hot money in six categories of disaggregated bilateral capital flows (equity inflows, equity outflows, bond inflows, bond outflows, banking credit inflows, and banking credit outflows) for 12 emerging markets vis-à-vis the US from 1995 to 2012 and provides several new findings. First, we identify the existence of hot money in all six categories above and conclude that both gross inflows and gross outflows can be the sources of hot money. Second, hot money in equity inflows (outflows) engages in positive (negative) feedback trading regarding local stock market returns. Third, some categories of hot money have a temporary influence on local stock market returns while the others have a permanent influence, supporting the explanations of both price pressures and information advantage. Finally, local stock market returns in half of our sample countries, which have tightened capital controls during the late 2000s global financial crisis (GFC), are more affected by hot money than in the other half. Our findings confirm several popular conjectures of hot money, and endorse the use of capital controls to limit financial vulnerability in the run-up to and during the GFC.     

Marriage between credit cards and the Internet: Buying is just a click away!

This paper examines whether Internet access positively affects credit card balances. To that end, we compare the 2010 and 2013 Surveys of Consumer Finances, analyze the consistency of the results over time, and provide the rationale for any resulting differences. Using the censored techniques, our results indicate that Internet access has a positive effect on credit card balances, which suggests that consumers with Internet access are prone to higher balances compared to those without. The probability of carrying positive balances was larger in 2010 compared to 2013. Overall, the results suggest that, while the financial crisis might have contributed to higher balances in 2010, the economic recovery afterward seems to have eased the burden of credit card debt.     

Analyzing the effect of derivatives on the financial soundness of commercial banks in Italy: An approach based on the CAMELS framework

Italian economy is among the biggest economies in the Europe which suffered from the repercussions of the global financial crisis during this last decade. The weakness of Italian banking system coincides with the common debate about the implication of derivatives in the distress of banks’ soundness. Thus, the aim of our research is to examine the effect of derivative instruments on the banks’ soundness in Italy. To reach our goal, the CAMELS approach is employed to define the soundness of Italian commercial banks. To overcome the endogeneity issue of variables, an appropriate econometric procedure, namely the dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM system) is applied using data from 22 commercial banks in Italy over the period 2005–2015. Explanatory variables are defined by derivative instruments (forwards, swaps, options, and futures), bank‐specific variable (bank's size as non‐CAMELS variable), industry‐specific variables (CR3, CR5, and HHI as indicators of bank's sector and market concentrations), and country‐specific variables (GDP and inflation). The main results reveal that the majority of the CAMELS indicators are favorably affected by derivative instruments especially forwards and options. The most important conclusion is that using derivative instruments does not threaten the financial soundness of commercial banks in Italy. As major implication decision‐makers and experts—after the global financial crisis—should not consider derivatives in part as responsible of the fragility of the Italian banking system.     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda

This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying existing as well as emerging research streams.     

信贷供给、资产配置及企业绩效——来自中国制造业上市公司的证据

近些年,中国“金融与实体经济”的研究愈发成为热点。宏观层面,资金“脱实入虚”“金融空转”的讨论亦此起彼伏。然而,针对微观层面的企业资金“脱实入虚”的研究则寥寥无几。本文选取2003—2016年中国A股制造业上市公司的年度报告数据,利用2009年宏观调控措施营造的“准自然实验”环境,采用双重差分方法探究在资金资源充足的前提下,企业配置金融资产的倾向性,并进一步研究企业绩效的后续变化情况。实证结果表明,当制造业企业获得更多的信贷资金支持,同时缺乏有效的外部监管时,企业更倾向于配置金融资产,金融活动也会在企业的日常生产经营中扮演愈发重要的角色。在此基础上,企业的主营业务却未得到发展,反而盈利能力、成长能力均受到损害,且后者受到的影响更大,即进行过多金融投资对中国A股制造业上市公司的远期影响更为深重。基于上述结论,本文从实体经济从业者、资金提供方以及监管层三个角度提出了相关政策建议。