Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes

Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply‐side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply‐side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three‐equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.     

住房公积金导致了不平等吗*——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据

住房公积金制度作为一项政策性住房金融制度，能够缓解家庭购房金融约束、稳定住房金融市场，成为实现“房住不炒”的重要政策工具。本文以2015年实施的住房公积金信贷宽松政策作为外生冲击，从财富效应的角度研究了住房公积金制度对不同家庭购房行为的影响。利用双重差分的实证研究方法，本文发现目前住房公积金主要促进了缴存家庭的多套房需求，加大了缴存家庭与非缴存家庭的住房财富差距。住房信贷政策的针对性与多样性急需提升。     

Working capital (mis)management – impact of executive age

Several recent studies have used the upper echelons theory to explain the impact of personal traits of top executives on various corporate policies. In this, first of its kind, study we find that older executives invest more in working capital; take longer to convert inventories to cash; and pay their suppliers sooner. These findings are consistent with the argument that risk aversion increases with executive age. Our findings indicate that executive age has significant bearing on working capital management policies. This study also initiates new avenues in research relating behavioral aspect of executives with short‐term financial management.     

信用管理在新兴产业发展中的作用探讨

通过对新兴产业企业、商业银行的融资状况进行调查,分析新兴产业企业目前的信用管理现状,商业银行对新兴产业开展信用评级的指标及内容等,以此推断泰州市新兴产业的信用管理状况。再结合当前经济发展实际,提出政府、新兴产业企业、商业银行三方联动的信用管理对策,推动新兴产业的可持续发展。     

ARBITRAGE‐FREE BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION UNDER COLLATERALIZATION AND APPLICATION TO CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.     

What Drives the Consequences of Intentional Misstatements? Evidence from Rating Analysts’ Reactions

This paper aims to identify the mechanisms through which intentional misstatements adversely affect firms by analyzing rating analysts’ reaction to misstatements. In order to identify the mechanisms through which the misstatement affects firms’ credit ratings, we analyze the content of rating reports. Rating analysts are concerned about seven different mechanisms. They are most concerned about misstatement‐related violations of debt covenants that increase a firm's liquidity risk. We find that, subsequent to an intentional misstatement becoming publicly known, credit ratings of misreporting firms are adversely affected for up to seven years. The adverse impact of an intentional misstatement on a firm's credit rating is most pronounced in cases in which rating analysts mention concerns about misstatement‐related violations of covenants. Our results suggest that these covenant violations are the most severe mechanism through which misstatements adversely affect firms’ creditworthiness.     

Do sovereign rating announcements affect emerging market exchange rate correlations? A multivariate DCC-GARCH approach

This article investigates the effects of sovereign credit rating announcements on time-varying exchange rate return correlations for a sample of 11 emerging market countries over the period 2002–2015. The data set covers daily exchange rates and long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks and watch list. The pairwise time-varying correlations are derived by corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC) modelling which is a member of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models family. Furthermore, to capture the global factor effect, a dynamic-weighted index is created by using dynamic principal component (DPC) analysis. Findings suggest that some of the emerging market exchange rate co-movements are affected by rating announcements. Upgrades of Moody’s and downgrades of Fitch lead to spillovers. Main source of these spillovers are sovereign credit rating changes of European countries, especially Czech Republic and Turkey. Countries with high amount of external debt, large current account deficit and speculative grade are more prone to be influenced by announcements on a foreign country’s long-term sovereign rating.     

公共信用信息归集和使用的地方规则比较研究

公共信用信息的归集和使用是当前各地方政府社会信用体系建设的焦点问题。少数省、市在公共信用信息归集和使用规则制定上的经验值得借鉴。对江苏省和陕西省、杭州市和上海市的公共信用信息归集和使用的地方规则进行比较,从公共信用信息归集、使用、异议处理、管理机制几个方面进行总结并提出建议。