桂林旅游地生命周期的界定

通过对历史资料的分析及对未来发展趋势的预测．指出桂林旅游自1973年对外开放以来经历了引入期、成长期和成熟期3个阶段，目前正处于旅游地生命周期的成熟阶段。     

论宏观调控——对我国2003年来宏观调控的几点认识

界定了宏观调控的内涵,论证了宏观调控的必要性,讨论了宏观调控的类型,对宏观调控成效与政策实施时长进行了模型分析,并对学术界就我国2003年开始的宏观调控成效的争论进行了简要的述评。     

ERP实施项目的成功因素分析

本文以国内ERP实施为研究对象,运用项目生命周期理论,结合ERP实施中属于信息系统项目的特点,把ERP实施项目按生命周期划分为计划、实施、稳定、提高四个阶段,并在文献研究、案例研究和专家访谈法的基础上,运用问卷调查法探讨了各个不同阶段影响ERP实施的成功因素,最后给出了ERP实施模型,以达到提高国内企业ERP实施的成功率,推动信息化建设之目的.     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

20世纪90年代以来我国经济周期新特征及"反周期"经济政策的有效性

20世纪90年代以来，随着经济转轨过程的逐步深入和市场化程度的不断提高，我国经济周期出现了一系列新的特点和变化趋势：从波动性质上看，经济周期开始向“增长型”转变；从周期长度看，经济周期有向尤格拉中周期演变的趋势；此外，世界经济周期对我国经济周期的影响不断加深，二者有同步化的发展趋势。然而，当前我国的市场经济体制尚不完善，为保持经济的持续稳定增长，需针对90年代以来我国经济周期出现的新特征，增强“反周期”经济政策的有效性，以减少经济周期波动可能产生的负面效应。     

区位决策视角下的集群生命周期分析

本文在对当前产业集群生命周期研究述评的基础上,将集群周期划分为成长、成熟、衰退、再发展四个阶段,并从企业区位决策的视角对集群生命周期的不同阶段进行分析。然后通过考察企业区位决策因子的动态变化和集群区核心产业的区外出口量增长率、主导产业的企业数量、修正后的空间基尼系数来对生命周期阶段进行划分,分析不同阶段下政府的决策行为。     

企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任的匹配探讨——一种新的企业履行社会责任的理论分析框架

本文首先研究了企业履行社会责任的模式并提出了企业社会责任的层次模型;其次,将企业需求与个人需求在企业生态学的范畴下进行了类比,提出了企业需求层次模型,并将企业需求归纳为企业履行社会责任的动力;再次,本文运用企业生命周期原理,将企业成长状况看作是衡量企业具有一定的履行社会责任能力的体现;最后,通过将企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任进行匹配探讨,揭示了企业履行社会责任的动力和能力原理及其可能的行为,并得出了一些有意义的结论。     

产品寿命周期理论与标准化工作的探讨

根据实现带全局意义的两个根本性转变的要求，阐述了应用产品寿命周期理论对企业标准化工作的作用和意义。     

Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001