Earnings Management in IPO Lockup and Insider Trading: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper examines the hypothesis that the timing of lockup expiration is crucial to earnings management (EM) behavior in the period after an initial public offering (IPO). Taiwan's unique two-stage lockup regulations make the Taiwanese sample an excellent candidate for examining this hypothesis. Three main results are reached. First, we find positive discretionary accruals (DAs) from the IPO quarter to the quarter after the expiration of the first-stage lockup. The DA in the quarter of the second-stage lockup expiration is significantly positive. The evidence shows that the lockup provision is key in the findings of significant EM in the IPO year and the following year. We also find a positive association between DAs in first-stage lockups and subsequent insider selling activity, indicating that insiders' selling after lockup expiration accounts for EM in the lockup period. Third, the extent of EM in first-stage lockup is negatively related to that around the IPO, consistent with the reversal nature of DAs.     

Product pricing and solvency capital requirements for long-term care insurance

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of premiums, reserves and solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for long-term care (LTC) insurance policies using Activities of Daily Living and US data. We compare stand-alone policies, whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders (LTC insurance combined with whole life insurance), life care annuities (LTC insurance combined with annuities) and shared LTC insurance in terms of net premium cost and SCRs. Net premiums and best-estimate reserves for base LTC insurance policies are determined using Thiele’s differential equation. Product features such as the elimination period and the maximum benefit period are compared using a simulation-based model. We show how a maximum benefit period can reduce costs and risks for LTC insurance products. SCRs for longevity risk and disability risk are based on the Solvency II standard formula. We quantify the extent to which whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders and life care annuities provide lower SCRs than stand-alone LTC insurance policies.     

The Expiration Effects of Stock-Index Derivatives: Empirical Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

Five index derivatives with the same expiration days, settlement days, and settlement systems have been consecutively traded on the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) since 1998. This paper examines the expiration effects of TAIFEX index derivatives on the underlying stock market between 1998 and 2002. Our empirical findings show no significant expiration effects on the expiration day, but evidence demonstrates that expiration effects have strengthened as more relative index derivatives are listed on the TAIFEX. Meanwhile, the expiration effects seem to shift to the opening of the settlement day. In general, the expiration effects in Taiwan are not as significant as those in U.S. markets but are stronger than those in the Hong Kong market. The special settlement procedures adopted by the TAIFEX may account for the difference.     

International Linkages among Stock Markets of Malaysia and Its Major Trading Partners

This study empirically examines the short- and long-run dynamic causal linkages between Malaysia and its major trading partners (the United States, Japan, Singapore, China, and Thailand) based on a two-step estimation, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) during the period 1992–2008. The study documents that the stronger the trade ties among the countries, the higher the degree of comovements among their stock markets. The Japanese stock market, to some extent, is found to be more important than the United States over these markets. In designing stock market policies, each country should take into consideration of any shocks in its major trading partners.     

Tourism's climate mitigation dilemma: Flying between rich and poor countries

Stronger demand for medium- to long-haul air transport is the main driver of the tourism industry's increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, causing the current development of global tourism to be environmentally unsustainable. Efficiency improvements and biofuel usage are unlikely to maintain pace with the projected growth in transport volume. Therefore, curbing the growing demand for air transport has been suggested as another option for the sustainable development of tourism. However, the political and industry discourse concerning the restriction of air transport tends to label such a restriction as unethical, as such limits would impair the development that tourism brings to poor countries. This paper investigates the possible impacts of air travel restrictions on the least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs by examining global tourism. The impacts on LDCs are found to be ‘neutral’ on average, with both losses and gains in tourist arrivals. The extent of any losses does not appear to be beyond the scope of possible economic compensation.     

货运量回归预测工具EXCEL和SPSS结合应用研究

对货运量预测工具EXCEL和SPSS各自的优缺点进行了分析，在此基础上建议将两种预测工具相结合，提出如何．陕速、准确得出预测值并作出预测图表的方法和步骤，最后以某市社会货运量统计为样本，进行实例说明。     

广深高速载货汽车超载特征分析

基于连续一周的广深高速交通量观测数据，对其交通量和货车超载特征进行详细分析．表明广深高速存在较为严重的超载现象。     

Seasonal Trading and Lifestyle Motivation

ABSTRACT

This article explores relationships between tourism sea-sonality and the lifestyle motivations of small tourism businesses, fundamentally a supply-side perspective of seasonality. Seasonal trading decisions are subject to a number of influences, not all of which are in the operator's control. Drawing from exploratory research undertaken in Scotland, the article argues that for some operators, especially located in rural and peripheral destination areas, lifestyle enterprise can confer a range of benefits, some of which are afforded by operating the business on a seasonal basis. Moreover, seasonal trading was seen to assume a number of distinct roles, reflecting various characteristics of lifestyle operators. Accordingly, public policies that seek to promote seasonal extension based on the premise of local economic development or destination objectives are not necessarily destined to work. This is particularly pertinent if such policies do not recognise the wider supply-side dynamics of seasonal trading and fail to engage with the lifestyle aspirations of the operators themselves.     

机车运用管理信息系统的设计与应用

针对目前机车运用管理上存在的不足，结合运输生产实际，设计了机车运用管理信息系统，为各相关岗位动态掌握机车、机班信息提供有效手段。本文介绍了系统的物理结构、逻辑结构、系统功能及关键技术。该系统在全集团范围推广使用，效果良好。     

日（班）计划编制智能系统的研究

结合日（班）计划编制工作现状及问题，对日（班）计划编制及智能调整的必要性、可行性和效益进行分析，从系统的架构、功能及关键技术进行了阐述。