Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

外资银行进入对发展中国家银行信贷可得性的影响研究

如何引导外资银行增加东道国的信贷可得性,尤其是中小企业的信贷可得性,是目前理论和政策界争论的焦点问题之一。本文通过构建一个理论模型,分析了外资银行进入和国内信贷供给的关系,从市场均衡结果、社会福利、成本效率等几个角度对外资银行进入发展中的东道国的影响进行综合分析。模型结果表明,外资银行的进入并不必然增加一国的总体信贷水平、也并不必然提高东道国银行业的成本效率和整体社会福利,甚至在某些特定条件下,结果可能适得其反。     

数字化转型视角下数字金融对企业投资效率的影响效应分析

以2011—2021年沪深A股和中小板上市公司为样本,分析数字金融对企业投资效率的影响效应。研究结果表明：数字金融能够缓解企业的投资不足,但会加剧企业的投资过度,与A股上市公司相比,数字金融对中小板上市公司的影响程度更大;数字金融影响投资效率的内在机制为缓解企业融资约束,主要表现为提高企业的信贷可得性;数字金融对投资效率的影响主要体现在制造业、软件和信息技术服务业、生产和生活性服务业,数字金融对内控有效企业投资过度的影响不显著。因此,要大力推进数字金融的发展,优化农村地区数字金融环境和强化企业内部控制建设。     

Forecasting household debt with latent transition modelling

Latent transition modelling (LTM) was used to forecast household debt patterns. A model based on three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study of Polish households – Social Diagnosis – provided data for these forecasts. Based on the fact that transitions between latent states are shaped by previous latent states and socio-economic covariates – age of household head, income and number of household members – we were able to demonstrate LTM as a tool to generate aggregate predictions for both medium- and long-term evolution of the household credit market. The declining tendency for household credit participation rates in Poland is expected in the longer term. In particular, the trend should be supported by decline in the proportion of mortgage debtors. The groups of households indebted for the consumption of durables and those seeking credit outside the banking sector are the groups predicted to remain stable or increase in size.     

The cost of firms’ debt financing and the global financial crisis

We provide an assessment of the determinants of the risk premium paid by non-financial corporations on long-term bonds. By looking at 5500 issues over the period 2005–2012, we find that in recent years the sovereign debt market turbulence has been a major driver of corporate risk. Compared with the three-year period 2005–2007 before the global financial crisis, in the years 2010–2012 Italian, Spanish and Portuguese firms paid on average between 70 and 120 basis points of additional premium due to the negative spillovers from the sovereign debt crisis, while German firms received a discount of 40 basis points.     

欧洲主权债务危机给我国商业银行带来的机遇与挑战

本文对以希腊主权债务问题为代表的新一轮欧洲主权债务危机进行了专题研究,辩证地分析了危机给我国商业银行发展带来的挑战与机遇,并对下一步应采取的措施与转变等提出了相应的政策性建议。     

交易费用视角下的金融集聚效应

从交易费用视角看,产业集聚可以扩大市场广度,增加市场深度,从而拓展市场范围,促进分工的进一步发展并实现分工的利益.金融集聚作为产业集聚的一种形式,通过和当地服务业、制造业的互动拓展了金融产业的市场广度;通过金融企业之间的竞争合作关系增加了金融产业的市场深度,对区域金融产业产生积极的集聚效应,促进了地区金融业的良性发展.     

财经类大学生思想行为特点及对策研究

文章认为高校财经类专业学生在思想观念、专业学习、文化素质、情感等方面具有与其它专业不同的特点,并根据财经类专业学生的思想特点和行为方式,探讨了教育管理内容,提高思想政治教育工作的针对性和实效性。     

Private information in currency markets

Using daily abnormal currency returns for the universe of countries with flexible exchange rates, we show local currency depreciations ahead of unscheduled, public sovereign debt downgrade announcements. Consistent with the private information hypothesis, the effect is stronger in lower institutional quality countries and holds after we control for concurrent public information and for publicly available rumors about the forthcoming downgrades. Our results persist when abnormal currency returns are adjusted for global carry and dollar risk factors, world equity and bond returns, as well as local stock market returns. Finally, the currency depreciations are permanent, providing evidence for a link between fundamentals and currency markets.