石油贸易、石油安全与我国的对策

石油对我国经济和国家安全至关重要。自从1993年我国成为石油净进口国以来,我国石油对外依存度逐年上升。自2003年后,国际石油价格爆涨,我国石油安全比以往任何时候都更危险。同时,我国石油贸易还存在越贵越买的问题。本文分析了我国石油安全形势,认为我国石油安全已经处于危险状态,在此基础上,进一步提出了提高我国石油安全和改善石油贸易的建议。     

Can good marketing carry a bad product? Evidence from the motion picture industry

We examine the relative roles of marketing actions and product quality in determining commercial success. Using the motion picture context, in which product quality is difficult for consumers to anticipate and information on product success is available for different points in time, we model the effects of studio actions and movie quality on a movie’s sales during different phases of its theatrical run. For a sample of 331 recent motion pictures, structural equation modeling demonstrates that studio actions primarily influence early box office results, whereas movie quality influences both short- and long-term theatrical outcomes. The core results are robust across moderating conditions. We identify two data segments with follow-up latent class regressions and explore the degree of studio actions needed to “save” movies of varying quality. We finally offer some implications for research and management.     

Brand Loyalty Versus Store Loyalty: Consumers’ Role in Determining Dependence Structure of Supplier–Retailer Dyads

Purpose: This article aims to integrate consumers into a channel dependence framework and explores the influence of consumers’ brand loyalty and store loyalty on the dependence structure within the supplier–retailer relationship. It also examines effects of the dependence structure on perceived conflict.

Methodology/approach: The authors test the proposed triadic relationship model among department store, supplier, and consumer by collecting matched data from both retailers and consumers in a Chinese retailing channel of sports and leisure apparel. Polynomial regression in conjunction with a response surface analysis (RSA) approach is used to test the hypotheses.

Findings: The results indicate that consumers’ brand loyalty positively affects retailer’s dependence on supplier, while consumers’ store loyalty positively affects supplier’s dependence on retailer. In addition, the retailer’s dependence is higher when consumers’ brand loyalty is higher than store loyalty; the supplier’s dependence is higher when consumers’ store loyalty is higher than brand loyalty; and the retailer’s dependence increases with the increase of both consumers’ brand and store loyalty when consumers’ brand and store loyalty are equal. Moreover, supplier’s dependence has a negative linear effect on retailer’s perceived conflict, whereas retailer’s dependence has an inverted U-shape effect on perceived conflict. A retailer would perceive more conflict when the retailer is relatively more dependent on the supplier; but the symmetrical interdependence has no significant effect on retailer perceived conflict.

Research implications: Researchers are encouraged to explore channel behaviors from a network perspective. Consumers, in particular, should be included in research frameworks related to channel dependence and behaviors. Suggestions for further research on the effects of dependence on the conflict are also proposed.

Originality/value/contribution: This study goes beyond the dyadic paradigm by integrating consumers into the framework of the channel dependence structure. It develops and tests a mechanism of consumers’ brand and store loyalty influencing dependence structure within a supplier–retailer dyad. It also enriches the literature of channel conflict by exploring the effects of retailer and supplier unilateral dependence on retailer perceived conflict with RSA methods.

Practical implications: The article provides several insightful implications for managers in understanding and managing interdependence structure in business-to-business marketing, especially in supplier–retailer relationships.     

Role of Forgetting in Memory-Based Choice Decisions: A Structural Model

We propose a structural model to investigate the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand choice decisions in frequently purchased products. Forgetting results in consumers imperfectly recalling their prior brand evaluations when making a purchase decision in the category. We conceptualize the imperfect recall by positing that consumers recall their prior evaluations with noise. Based on prior research in the behavioral area, we characterize the extent of forgetting as an increasing and concave function of time. Our framework generates analytical results on the impact of forgetting on consumers' brand evaluations and their consequent purchase behavior. We calibrate our model using scanner panel data for liquid detergents. Furthermore, we obtain insights into the consumers' extent of forgetting in the category, extent of learning, predicted price elasticities and implications on state dependence and habit persistence. Our results underscore the importance of modeling consumers' ability to recall only imperfectly.     

生产性服务业外资企业投资分布演化——基于江苏省的实证研究

随着全球生产制造活动向我国的大规模转移,近年来服务业外国直接投资也表现出了快速增长的势头。本文以制造业外国直接投资较为集中的江苏省为研究对象,重点从集聚的"路径依赖"效果和产业关联作用两个角度考察了生产性服务业外资企业的投资分布状况及其空间演化。结果表明,短期内,路径依赖效果和产业关联作用都产生了显著影响,但长期影响效果还不是很明显。     

Customer segmentation using unobserved heterogeneity in the perceived-value–loyalty–intentions link

Multiple facets of perceived value perceptions drive loyalty intentions. However, this value–loyalty link is not uniform for all customers. In fact, the present study identifies three different segments that are internally consistent and stable across different service industries, using two data sets: the wireless telecommunication industry (sample size 1122) and the financial services industry (sample size 982). Comparing the results of a single-class solution with finite mixture results confirms the existence of unobserved customer segments. The three established segments are “rationalists”, “functionalists” and “value maximizers”. These results point the way for value-based segmentation in loyalty initiatives and reflect the importance of a multidimensional conceptualization of perceived value, comprising cognitive and affective components. The present results substantiate the fact that assuming a homogeneous value–loyalty link provides a misleading view of the market. The paper derives implications for marketing research and practice in terms of segmentation, positioning, loyalty programs and strategic alliances.     

The FDI location decision: Distance and the effects of spatial dependence

We investigate how different conceptions of distance impact upon one of the fundamental decisions made by foreign investors, the choice of foreign direct investment (FDI) location within the selected host country. We argue that the attractiveness of host country locations to foreign investors depends not only upon location-specific attributes such as labor costs, but also upon the location's proximity to alternative locations. We provide theoretical rationales for how and why alternative concepts of distance might impact upon firms’ FDI location decisions, and explicitly model different measures of geographic, economic and administrative distance. Empirically we illustrate the use of a number of spatial regression models with a new dataset on FDI in Chinese prefecture-cities, and have shown, in this context, that geographic distance is not the ‘best’ measure of distance to use. We find clear evidence of spatial dependence between the cities based upon economic distance, with weaker evidence related to administrative distance. The distinctive contribution of this paper is to emphasize that city-level policy to attract FDI is more likely to succeed if the prefecture-city is economically (and administratively) close to alternative city locations, while any policy expenditure may fail to attract FDI inflows if the prefecture-city is distant from other city locations.     

信息物理融合系统软件可信性演化动力学建模

信息物理融合系统(CPS)软件可信性建模是CPS可信软件开发过程中至关重要的一环,现有的形式化方法、软件验证技术并不适合对CPS软件可信性动态演化进行描述和分析。在深入分析CPS可信软件动态演化过程的基础上,结合非线性动力学的基本理论和方法,研究CPS软件可信性演化的动力学机制,对CPS软件在内外双重因素影响下的可信性演化过程进行建模,并分析其可信性演化规律,为CPS软件可信性研究提供了一种新手段。通过对一个工业控制领域中CPS软件的建模与分析,验证了该方法的可行性。     

基于BIM技术的Java二次开发及其在装饰工程设计和施工中的应用

时代的浪潮推动着各行各业的发展,对土木工程领域的建筑安全及建筑设计提出了更高的要求和标准。BIM技术应用于建筑行业(特别是装饰工程领域)已成热门应用及研究课题。BIM技术推动建筑行业从复杂化向精细化、信息化以及高效化发展。基于BIM技术,使用Java语言对工程项目进行二次开发,通过获取平面图纸的边界,自动创建初始BIM模型,筛选房间类型,进行房间装饰布置、碰撞检测、结构/参数调整以及施工管理。基于BIM技术的Java二次开发对装饰工程全寿命周期管理的应用,提高了装饰工程各个环节资源的有效利用。