Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

生育政策的地区差异与儿童营养过剩关系研究

近年来,中国的肥胖儿童不断增多。由于该现象发生在“独生子女”政策开始实施以后,后者被认为是前者之因。然而,实证研究的缺乏使生育政策与儿童营养过剩之间的关系尚不明确。使用“中国健康和营养调查”数据,探讨政策与儿童(0-12岁)营养过剩之间的关系。多层模型和纵向分析结果显示,其一,儿童营养过剩的比例在90年代持续攀升,但增长速度较慢。其二,虽然生活在一孩生育政策地区的儿童营养过剩的比例高于其它地区儿童,独生子女营养过剩的比例超过非独生子女,但在其它条件同等的情况下,生育政策的地区差异和姊妹结构与儿童营养过剩概率无显著关联。分析结果并不支持“独生子女政策造成了儿童肥胖”的公共观点。影响儿童营养过剩的主要因素包括父母的体重、母亲的教育、社区发展水平和省份。     

经济系统中的数学建模

论述了经济系统中数学模型的建立问题,并对数学建模过程进行了理论分析。     

The Dynamics of Location in Home Price

It is well established that house prices are dynamic. It is also axiomatic that location influences such selling prices, motivating our objective of incorporating spatial information in explaining the evolution of house prices over time. In this paper, we propose a rich class of spatio-temporal models under which each property is point referenced and its associated selling price modeled through a collection of temporally indexed spatial processes. Such modeling includes and extends all house price index models currently in the literature, and furthermore permits distinction between the effects of time and location. We study single family residential sales in two distinct submarkets of a metropolitan area and further categorize the data into single- and multiple-transaction observations. We find the spatial component is very important in explaining house price. Moreover, the relative homogeneity of homes within the submarket and the frequency with which homes sell affects the pattern of variation across space and time. Differences between single and repeat sale data are evident. The methodology is applicable to more general capital asset pricing when location is anticipated to be influential.     

Risk management under extreme events

This article presents two applications of extreme value theory (EVT) to financial markets: computation of value at risk (VaR) and cross-section dependence of extreme returns (i.e., tail dependence). We use a sample comprised of the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Our main findings are the following. First, on average, EVT gives the most accurate estimate of VaR. Second, tail dependence of paired returns decreases substantially when both heteroscedasticity and serial correlation are filtered out by a multivariate GARCH model. Both findings are in agreement with previous research in this area for other financial markets.     

Inference with Dependent Data in Accounting and Finance Applications

We review developments in conducting inference for model parameters in the presence of intertemporal and cross‐sectional dependence with an emphasis on panel data applications. We review the use of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error estimators, which include the standard clustered and multiway clustered estimators, and discuss alternative sample‐splitting inference procedures, such as the Fama–Macbeth procedure, within this context. We outline pros and cons of the different procedures. We then illustrate the properties of the discussed procedures within a simulation experiment designed to mimic the type of firm‐level panel data that might be encountered in accounting and finance applications. Our conclusion, based on theoretical properties and simulation performance, is that sample‐splitting procedures with suitably chosen splits are the most likely to deliver robust inferential statements with approximately correct coverage properties in the types of large, heterogeneous panels many researchers are likely to face.     

Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.     

How supply chain architecture and product architecture impact firm performance: An empirical examination

In order to enhance performance, manufacturing firms are building various capabilities and utilizing supply chain networks that are geographically dispersed around the globe. This study examines how decisions related to supply chain architecture and product architecture influence organizational competitiveness. Building on the co-specialization perspective, we evaluate the performance implications of product modularity and supply chain agility. While, product modularity constitutes a product configuration related to sourcing and assembling of products, supply chain agility is a supply chain configuration related to velocity (sensing, comprehending, and responding) and visibility (supplier network, internal operations, and external environment). Both the product and supply chain architectural decisions can impact performance, individually and in conjunction with each other. We empirically test the hypothesized relationships using data collected from 103 manufacturing firms. Results show that supply chain agility and product modularity directly enhance responsiveness and enable organizations to reduce cost. Furthermore, supply chain agility partially mediates the relationship between product modularity and both responsiveness and cost reduction. We elaborate on the key contributions of this study for both research and practice, discuss limitations, and also offer various avenues for further research.     

在数学建模教学中提高学生数学修养

数学修养是学生综合能力的重要组成部分。数学模型案例数学教学中通过在贯穿、开设数学建模课程,对解决实际问题的合理性进行分析和探讨,以期对当前的高校数学教育有一定的参考价值。     

高外贸依存度下的出口退税政策

改革开放初期,我国外汇短缺,为此国家实施“创汇战略”,实行出口退税。近年来,我国已成为全球第一大外汇储备国,形成一种全新的外贸环境。但另一方面也显现出我国经济对国际市场的依赖大大提高,外贸依存度不断上升。因此,我国对现行的出口退税政策进行了调整,此次调整将有利于进一步优化产业结构,促进外贸增长方式转变,推动进出口贸易均衡发展。