比较劣势产品出口受汇率变动影响的概率分析

2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革后,人民币呈现出升值趋势.汇率的波动会影响贸易,一方面可能影响贸易收支,另一方面也会影响贸易结构.本文在前人研究的基础上,使用二元选择模型分析了我国1999年1月至2006年6月期间我国处于比较劣势的商品对日出口受汇率变动影响的概率,以此来反映人民币汇率变动可能对我国出口结构的影响,并提出相关建议.     

基于状态空间模型的汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的实证分析——基于央行资产负债表的视角

从分析人民银行资产负债表的变化出发,运用状态空间模型实证分析了2005年7月至2012年6月中国汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的动态时变过程。研究结果表明:人民币汇率升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用,但其效果较弱;货币供给对通货膨胀有较大的正向推动作用,货币供给的持续增加是人民银行资产负债表中资产方的外汇占款科目不断增加导致负债方的基础货币持续增加的结果。     

浅谈工程施工投标技巧

面对日益激烈的市场竞争,企业如何提高中标率以及如何在投标中获取最大的利润等都已经成为人们较为关注的重点,其中投标的编制技巧与报价策略都成为投标单位较为关注的热门话题,而投标策略和技巧在中标率较高的施工企业中有着不可忽视的作用。投标技巧主要就是以投标人在投标过程中需要关注的问题为重点。     

新升本科院校数学专业学生的考研心理分析及对策探讨

学生的考研心理对考研率有着重大的影响,对于新升本科院校数学专业学生而言,应该注重学生的考研心理,根据研究学生的考研心理状况,从而进一步提升考研率。     

经济增长与环境

在政府不参与环境控制时,经济增长率最高,但污染也最严重,社会福利要比政府采取补贴情形时低.通过建立模型推导出了在放任政策下的经济增长率是最快的,但污染比较严重。     

Causes of world trade growth in agricultural and food products, 1951–2000: a demand function approach

The objective of the present study is to analyse the causes of the growth of international agricultural and food trade in volume terms from 1951 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth has been the principal reason for this expansion, while exchange rate stability and the real price of agricultural products played only a minor role. Multilateral trade liberalization and trade costs, given their long-term stability, are not elements that could have stimulated their growth. Finally, the intensive liberalization of trade which took place in various economic regions, especially in Europe, became a key factor in promoting agricultural trade among the countries participating in regional trade agreements. The study results also indicate that the determinants of trade growth for these goods were different to those for other goods and other periods.     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证,本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下,模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步,本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据,对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计,继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上,在延迟退休年龄政策下,隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时,女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响,收入增长率越低,或收入风险越高,她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈;制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响,子女收入增长率越高,劳动参与的概率越低。     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

Lost in intervention. The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect on the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998)

We have decomposed the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998) into its trend and cyclical components and used the former to proxy its time-varying equilibrium. Then, we have compared changes in the equilibrium with changes in the Spanish and the USA productivity differentials to identify years that do not fit with the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson (HBS) hypothesis. The greatest maladjustment is found in the 1940s and 1950s, decades of strong exchange rate intervention in Spain. Conversely, the link between equilibrium and differentials adjusts to the hypothesis when using the non-intervened peseta/dollar exchange rate on the Tangier black market. These contrasting results back up the idea that exchange rate intervention, so common in developing countries, might explain their scanter evidence in favour of the HBS effect.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。