Swiss Exchange Rate Policy in the 1930s. Was the Delay in Devaluation Too High a Price to Pay for Conservatism?

In this paper we examine the experience of Switzerland’s devaluation in 1936. We ask the following questions: what were the issues at stake in the political debate? What was the cost to Switzerland of the delay in the franc devaluation? What would have been the costs and benefits of an earlier exchange rate policy? To answer these questions we construct a simple open economy macro model of the interwar Swiss economy. We then posit counterfactual scenarios of alternative exchange rate pegs in 1931 and 1933. Our simulations clearly show a significant and large increase in real economic activity.     

老年抑郁症相关因素分析与防治对策

随着老龄化社会进程的加快,老年抑郁症的发病率呈逐步上升趋势。分析和研究老年抑郁症发生的各类相关因素,提出切实可行的防治应对策略,对提高老年抑郁症患者的生活质量,维护和促进老年人的身心健康,构建和谐健康的老龄化社会,有着深刻的社会意义和深远的历史意义。     

Rejoinder to Paul Krugman

We provide a brief rejoinder to Krugman [2008, Response to Nelson and Schwartz. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] on three issues that are central to his original New York Review of Books article and his reply to our setting the record straight: (i) criticisms of Friedman; (ii) criticisms of monetarism; and (iii) interpretations of history.     

The relationship between employment and mental and physical health in South Africa

This paper estimated the relationship between employment and depression, hypertension, diabetes and tuberculosis in South Africa between 2008 and 2014. South Africa has high levels of economic inactivity and unemployment as well as a high disease burden occasioned by depression, other non-communicable diseases and tuberculosis. Data came from the National Income Dynamics Study panel dataset. Using fixed effects, random effects and pooled ordinary least squares regressions, depression and diabetes were associated with a 4–6 percentage point decline in employment probability, while tuberculosis was associated with a 12–13 percentage point employment decline. The results suggested that the employment-health relationship possibly operated through illness being associated with increased economic inactivity, rather than through making the search efforts of the unemployed unsuccessful. Moreover, the employment-health relationship not only existed contemporaneously, but extended into the future (especially for the physical health indicators).     

Cost-effectiveness of lurasidone vs quetiapine extended-release (XR) in patients with bipolar depression

Abstract

Objective:

Bipolar disorder imposes a high economic burden on patients and society. Lurasidone and quetiapine extended-release (XR) are atypical antipsychotic agents indicated for monotherapy treatment of bipolar depression. Lurasidone is also indicated as adjunctive therapy with lithium or valproate for depressive episodes associated with bipolar disorder. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lurasidone and quetiapine XR in patients with bipolar depression.     

Editor's Feature

This study makes a number of observations about the way in which the current crisis in particular, but economic crises more generally, are reported upon by the media. Considering terminology used to describe the financial crisis of 2007/2008 by employing a dataset of 956 articles from The Economist, we study what terms are used, why, and how they evolve. We consider how the frequency of negative emotional terms and the frequency of negative economic terms increase from the period of no-crisis to the period of the crisis. Increasing incidence lowers levels of consumer confidence. We predict that as the crisis evolves the nature of the terminology used to describe it will change, and that the present crisis will receive a special name, like the "Great Depression" of the 1930s. We explore a number of possibilities, and conclude that the preferred name will be the "Credit Crunch."     

Irving Fisher's debt deflation analysis: From the Purchasing Power of Money (1911) to the Debt-deflation Theory of the Great Depression (1933)

Abstract

In 1933, Irving Fisher proposed an explanation for the Great Depression based on the distinction between the price level and price change effect of deflation in a context of over-indebtedness. This paper compares the debt-deflation theory of Fisher (1933 Fisher, I., 1933. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions, Econometrica 1 (1933), pp. 337–57. DOI: 10.2307/1907327[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with the dynamic depression process he had expounded almost 20 years earlier in the Purchasing Power of Money (1911). The role played by both price level and price change effects in the analyses of Fisher (1933, 1911) are clarified in the context of the disequilibrium model of Tobin (1975 Tobin, J., 1975. Keynesian models of recession and depression, American Economic Review 65 (1975), pp. 195–202.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). More precisely, we show that the stationary equilibrium is assumed to be locally unstable according to Fisher's 1911 insights and globally unstable according to his 1933 analysis.     

论中国经济的繁荣与萧条

本文研究对象是新中国历次繁荣与萧条的运行过程,具体内容是繁荣的形成,繁荣走向萧条,以及萧条如何走向繁荣。