从信用繁荣到大萧条的演化及其启示

信用快速扩张和乐观情绪交织导致经济繁荣,贸易顺差快速增长,本币升值。本国为了减轻本币升值的压力,采用更宽松的货币政策,导致房地产泡沫和股市泡沫。信用支撑的繁荣必然导致资源错配,坏账大量积累,迫使商业信用和银行信用的停止,生产和消费不能继续,大萧条降临。要保持国民经济持续、快速发展,必须控制信用规模,走共同富裕的道路。     

Disparities Old and New in US Mental Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic*

The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced well-being and economic security on a number of dimensions, likely worsening mental health. In this paper, we assess how mental health in the US population has changed during the pandemic. We use three large, nationally representative survey sources to provide a picture of mental health prior to and during the pandemic. We find dramatic but broad-based declines in the level of mental health from pre-pandemic baseline measures across both people and places. Rates of poor mental health have jumped roughly 25 percentage points, from a base of roughly one-third. We document substantial disparities in mental health but show that the pandemic has generally preserved, rather than widened, these. Significant worsening in relative mental health among Hispanics and respondents aged 30 and older are exceptions. Consistent with an important role for pandemic-specific shocks, We find that income loss, food insecurity, COVID-19 infection or death in one's close circle, and personal health symptoms are all associated with substantially worse mental health. If anything, the decline in mental health is worsening as the pandemic wears on and is becoming less related to local COVID-19 case rates.     

油气管道平滑凹陷疲劳试验应变响应分析

将含深度15%OD平滑凹陷的试验管段进行疲劳试验,并监测凹陷不同部位的应变响应,结果表明：疲劳失效位置出现凹陷边缘位置,失效方式为轴向疲劳裂纹;凹陷中心在疲劳试验过程中,环向受拉,轴向受压;凹陷轴向中间位置和45°中间位置,环向和轴向均为拉应变,而凹陷环向中间位置,环向为拉应变,轴向为压应变;凹陷轴向边缘的环向和轴向均受压,45°边缘的环向和轴向均受拉,而环向边缘在疲劳试验过程中环向受压,轴向受拉。     

老年癌症患者抑郁状况调查及其干预

调查影响老年癌症患者抑郁症的相关因素,研究干预措施对缓解老年癌症抑郁症的作用,提高老年癌症患者的生活质量。选取50名老年癌症病人作为研究对象,采用老年抑郁量表(GDS)对老年癌症病人进行调查,结果采用X2检验。结果为:50例老年癌症患者中有抑郁症状的患者24例,抑郁症发生率为48%。影响老年癌症患者发生抑郁的因素中,经济收入和持续性疼痛的差异有统计学意义。对12例老年癌症抑郁症患者进行疼痛干预,干预组抑郁症状缓解率显著高于常规组,差异具有统计学意义。老年癌症患者相对于一般老年人更容易发生抑郁症,影响老年癌症患者产生抑郁症的相关因素有经济收入和持续性疼痛,疼痛干预可有效缓解老年癌症患者抑郁症状。     

The evolution of Hayek's thought on gold and monetary standards

Early in his career, Hayek viewed attempts to stabilize exchange rates by facilitating cooperation between central banks, with respect to their demand for gold, to be at odds with the fundamental mechanisms of the gold standard. He opposed proposals by Irving Fisher, Gustav Cassel, and Ralph Hawtrey that promoted stabilization of demand for gold and price levels as a next best option. Hayek viewed the nations that refused to devalue their currency after monetary expansion during wartime as complicit in degrading the international gold standard. In 1935 Hayek's emphasis began to change, his position sounding much like the arguments of Cassel and Hawtrey. Though he eventually gave up hope that the international gold standard would be reestablished, his later work on money provides theoretical underpinnings for systems that would promote the same sort of stability and predictability that the classical gold standard had provided.     

以龙湖钾镁盐矿床为例,简述农波盆地盐类矿产形成的地质环境

以农波盆地龙湖钾镁盐矿段钾镁盐矿层地质特征、矿体特征为切入点,从钾镁盐矿沉积古气候、古地理环境等方面介绍了农波盆地盐类矿产沉积的三次沉积旋回及钾镁盐矿产出的层位。     

A clinical- and cost-effectiveness comparison of venlafaxine and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in the management of patients with major depressive disorder from the perspective of an Austrian sickness fund

Summary

This study evaluated the relative clinical-and cost-effectiveness of venlafaxine (Efectin®, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, Austria) extended release (ER), venlafaxine instant release (IR) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in the treatment of major depressive disorder. The study took an Austrian sickness fund perspective and the evaluation originally formed part of a reimbursement submission of venlafaxine ER to the Hauptverband — an umbrella organisation representing the Austrian sickness funds.

At the time of the submission venlafaxine IR was reimbursed but published data and clinical practice suggested that it might be clinically inferior, less convenient and less acceptable to patients than the newer ER formulation. We believe this is the first study to directly compare the two venlafaxine formulations.

Major depressive disorder is a serious mental illness associated with considerable morbidity and a significant economic burden. An extensive literature review was carried out to retrieve the relevant clinical data and a meta-analysis of the homogeneous data was undertaken to establish the most clinically effective first-line treatment. An Austrian Delphi panel was used to provide treatment pattern data and to estimate outcomes for patients undergoing further lines of treatment. A 16-week time horizon was adopted and decision analysis was employed to model the cost-effectiveness of the respective agents.     

The German crisis of 1931: evidence and tradition

The German currency was controlled and German banks closed in July 1931. Does it matter whether poor currency management or poor banking practice led to the crisis? This paper argues that it does—because the choice indicates which decisions led to the Great Depression. This issue is so emotional that evidence has been subordinated to tradition in recent academic discussion. Data and economic analysis indicate clearly that the crisis originated in the currency, not the banks. The most useful model for this crisis is Krugman’s first generation model of financial crises.     

Finland’s great depression of the 1990s: Lessons about financial reform based on econometric macro evidence

The paper re‐examines the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s, based on an open macro model, with specific dummy variables to identify the initial effects of liberalized financial markets and capital mobility, and of the Russian trade collapse. It is shown that the explosive credit expansion resulting from the simultaneous liberalization of the financial markets and international capital movements in 1986 has played the most important role in explaining the uncontrolled growth and the subsequent depression in 1989 in real economic activity in Finland. Their effects were strengthened by a vicious circle between the financial and asset markets. The Russian trade collapse in 1991 had a smaller partial effect on economic activity than did any other explanatory variable. The results suggest that some of the present day problems in the euro area, especially those occurring post‐2008 in the “Club Med” countries, are very alarming. In many cases, they are results of expansionary policies based on unsustainable capital imports, made possible by the introduction of the euro, and the consequences resemble in many ways those during the 1990s Great Depression period in Finland.