降低公共危机防控成本刍议

公共危机防控这一非常态下特殊公共服务所面临的多方面需求与供给能力相对较低的矛盾,是导致公共危机防控成本高昂、难以控制和难以衡量的主要原因.当前,要降低公共危机的防控成本,需要着力于观念形塑、完善政府问责制、实现复合治理和能力建设等方面.     

谈企业集团财务竞争优势的建立

本文针对国际上出现的安然等破产事件和国内近期的德隆国际企业集团的财务危机，探讨财务风险价值管理在企业集团可持续发展过程中的功能与角色定位，并从以创造价值为导向的财务战略思想来构建企业集团财务竞争优势。     

资产价格波动与银行体系稳定

由资产价格剧烈波动引发的银行危机乃至金融危机会对一国银行体系稳定造成不良影响、这种不良影响表现为资产价格波动对经济总体变量有一定影响，并可能引起银行危机、银行风险、货币政策波动等方面的问题．最终影响到银行体系的稳定。     

The impact of opacity on bank valuation during the global financial crisis: A channel analysis

Prior literature suggests that opacity in the banking industry is mainly caused by a lack of informativeness in the assessment of the quality of bank assets. Examining a sample of bank holding companies in the United States, we find that there is a negative relationship between opacity and bank valuation during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. We further attempt to identify two potential channels through which opacity negatively affects bank valuation during the financial crisis: a cash flow channel and an expected return channel. We show that one channel flows from bank profitability, measured by return on equity and return on assets, confirming a cash flow channel, whereas an expected return channel, proxied by the implied cost of capital, only works for small banks. Overall, this study sheds light on the relationship between in-transparency and bank value discount during a global recession.     

经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

台湾全民健康保险财务危机论析

台湾全民健康保险自1995年实施至今已经取得了显著的成效,民众的健康有了基本的保障.但是,台湾健保也面临着严重的财务问题,至今已经爆发了三次财务危机.本文从台湾健保的管理制度、财务收入制度和财务支出制度等方面对其财务危机进行了分析,并总结出它为完善我国大陆健康保险制度提供的借鉴意义.     

投机资本攻击一国汇率的博弈均衡

在经济全球化和金融自由化背景下,国际投机资本的力量快速膨胀,国际游资利用金融杠杆掠夺危机国的财富,使国际金融市场的稳定受到严重挑战.通过构建两个不完全信息下微观主体的博弈模型,揭示国际投机者做出投机攻击决策的依据和博弈中货币当局败北的原因,创造性地提出"抗投机攻击指数"的概念,用以判断一国外汇市场的稳定,为我国在金融市场对外开放过程中采取有效政策搭配、实现内外均衡提供参考.     

20世纪90年代拉美国家财政改革的经验与教训

20世纪90年代拉美国家的财政失衡有所缓解,但是债务负担依然沉重,尤其"顺周期"的财政政策导致宏观经济更加不稳定,削弱了抵御外部冲击的能力.在"华盛顿共识"的影响下,拉美国家主要实施了强化财政纪律、调整公共支出结构、大幅度削减关税以及国有企业私有化等方面的财政改革,试图通过中短期的财政调整来解决长期存在的发展依赖外资和收入分配不公等诸多结构性矛盾,然而这种改革方式的有效性非常有限,其财政改革的经验教训可为我国财政改革提供有益的启示和借鉴.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview*

This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997–1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post‐Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been “softer” in its approach to the post‐Asian crisis countries.