On the determinants of yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and Treasury securities

Yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and U.S. Treasury securities may reflect differences in taxation, phenomena affecting relative supply and demand, and compensation for default, call, and marketability risks on mortgage instruments. Our research empirically models differences in yields between pass-throughs and comparable-maturity Treasuries. We find that interest-rate volatility and the term structure of rates, factors often cited in the mortgage pricing literature as affecting the mortgage call premium, are the primary determinants of movements in these spreads. Moreover, these effects have grown in importance in recent years as exercise of the prepayment option has increased. We also find evidence that liquidity and credit concerns affect the pricing of pass-through securities.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

西宁市建筑施工垃圾的管理及对策研究

近年来我国建筑业发展迅速,西宁市城市化进程导致新建、改建、扩建、拆除工程随处可见,因而在施工阶段产生大量的建筑施工垃圾。如果对这些垃圾不进行有效分析和管理,产量加剧会更加严重,对环境污染也会更严重。本文针对西宁建筑施工垃圾管理现状,提出相对应的有效对策。     

Interest Rates and Credit Risk

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.     

特种高收益风险债券──风险投资的金融创新

风险投资是指投资者以获得红利或出售股权获利为目的，出资协助具有专门技术而无自由资金的企业或个人实现创业，承担创业阶段的失败风险并将回收资金循环投入高风险事业。但是，由于种种投资类型所固有的特征，它所涵盖的投资主体和投资对象都会受到一定的限制。因此，设计一种特种高收益风险债券，这种债券能够弥补传统风险投资的缺陷，吸引更多业绩良好的中小企业或是具有特殊性的行业及企业进入风险投资领域，成为高科技企业融资的新选择。     

新疆农村土地整治的特点和对策

新疆以其独特的地理区位、重要的战略地位和丰富的自然资源禀赋成为我国土地整治的重点地区和国家土地整治重大项目工程的实施地区。2001年以来,新疆累计投入资金50×108元,实施土地开发整治项目292个,新增耕地面积7.15×104hm2。要结合新疆土地利用,树立环保优先、生态立区的理念,坚持走资源开发可持续、生态环境可持续的道路,以改善民生为目标,围绕高标准基本农田建设、安居富民、定居兴牧等民生工程,积极探索有效利用土地资源的新机制,扎实有效推进新疆土地整治工作。     

Inventory inaccuracies in the wholesale supply chain

The inventory level shown in the Information System contrary to popular belief and assumptions in most academic papers and in spite of the considerable amounts invested in information technology, is often inaccurate. The inventory inaccuracy occurs when the inventory shown in the Information System is not in agreement with the actually available inventory. In this paper, we first describe the major factors generating inventory inaccuracy. Then, we provide situations permitting to manage an inventory system subject to errors. We provide a general framework permitting to model the inventory inaccuracy issue. In particular, we link the inaccuracy issue with the well known random yield problem. The shown link permits us to derive the optimal ordering policy of an inventory framework where demand satisfaction is done based on the inventory records (which are subject to inaccuracies). We also propose an analysis permitting to show the added value of an advanced identification system such as the RFID technology.     

榆树林油田水井钻关的几点认识

文章针对榆树林油田加密区水井钻关状况进行分类分析,得出了不同钻关时间内钻关区产量递减趋势:钻关时间3个月以内,区块开发状况基本保持稳定;钻关三个月后,产量有所下降,且随着钻关时间的增加,递减幅度增大。同时根据钻关区特点提出几点建议,为今后控制钻关区产量递减提供指导。     

Is There a Viable Market for Area-Based Crop Insurance?

The performance of area yield insurance and farm-level multiple peril crop insurance is analyzed for cotton and soybean production in Georgia and South Carolina. The analysis improves on many previous studies by utilizing actual farm-level yield data and by comparing the two types of insurance products not only for actuarially fair premium rates but also for actual unsubsidized and subsidized premium rates. Results suggest that, even in heterogeneous production regions, area yield insurance may be a viable alternative to farm-level insurance when premium rates for farm-level insurance contain large positive wedges.