我国上市商业银行非利息收入业务分析与对策

本文采用10家上市商业银行2005—2009年度数据,对我国商业银行非利息收入状况、非利息收入构成进行多角度分析,对非利息收入与商业银行盈利能力关系进行实证考察,得出了非利息收入业务对商业银行盈利具有重要影响的结论,最后提出了进一步推进商业银行非利息收入业务发展的对策。本文对于商业银行非利息收入业务的进一步发展具有重要的指导借鉴作用。     

The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm

Rogoff (Journal of Economic Literature 1996;34:647-668) describes the ‘remarkable consensus’ of 3-5 year half-lives of purchasing power parity deviations among studies using long-horizon data. These studies, however, focus on rejections of unit roots in real exchange rates and do not use appropriate techniques to measure persistence. Our half-life estimates explicitly account for serial correlation, sampling uncertainty and, most importantly, small sample bias. Calculating confidence intervals as well as point estimates for long-horizon and post-1973 data, we find that, even though most of the point estimates lie within the 3-5 year range, univariate methods provide virtually no information regarding the size of the half-lives.     

Robust determinants of intergenerational mobility in the land of opportunity

This paper revisits the influential work by Chetty et al. (2014) who attempt to explain the variation in intergenerational mobility across commuter zones in the US (i.e., spatial mobility) using nine classes of variables. We employ Bayesian model averaging methods that allow for model uncertainty to identify robust predictors of spatial mobility. In doing so we pay special attention to the specification of model and parameter priors. We also investigate the heterogeneous effects of these predictors on spatial mobility across commuter zones in different average income quintiles. Our findings suggest a more nuance and complex characterization of the spatial mobility process than that proposed by Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez.     

Persistence in Corporate Performance? Empirical Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests

Persistence in corporate performance is analyzed in the framework of empirical tests of unit root behavior concerning firm profits. Data for firm-specific rates of return is applied in a set of panel unit root tests to address the question of persistence in profits both at firm level and for the aggregate level of industry-specific profits. The firm data all reject a null hypothesis of random walk behavior of profits but when smoothing profit rates at a two-digit NACE-code level for industries, the empirical evidence is more mixed as most industries show up with a unit root in aggregate rates of return, i.e. indicating persistence in corporate performance.