盈余持续性、审计师类型对盈余持续性的影响及资本市场反应

以我国2002~2008年期间A股上市公司为研究对象,延续Sloan的方法,利用mishkin检验来考察公司盈余持续性、审计师类型对盈余持续性的影响及股票市场反应。发现公司盈余中应计成分持续性低于现金流量成分;四大审计客户的盈余持续性要高于非四大审计的客户;与公司盈余中现金流量成分相比,四大审计师更显著提高公司盈余中应计成分的持续性;股票价格中所包含的公司盈余预期不能反映公司盈余中应计成分和现金流量成分持续性的差别;股票价格中包含的盈余预期可以总体上反映四大与非四大审计师对公司盈余持续性影响的差异,但股票价格中包含的盈余预期不能反映四大与非四大审计师对公司盈余中应计成分和现金流量成分持续性影响的不同,市场符合＂幼稚投资者＂假说。     

第二产业内部劳动报酬差异研究

第二产业是我国经济的主导产业,其劳动报酬水平是初次分配福利水平的重要体现。本文选取平均劳动报酬和劳动报酬比重作为研究的两个维度,通过动态和静态比较,对第二产业内部各门类、不同要素密集型行业的劳动报酬及其差异进行全面衡量,总结出第二产业劳动报酬及其差异的特点和变化规律。第二产业内部产业层次越高的行业,初次分配状况越好。文章还就第二产业初次收入分配的公平与效率问题进行了有效评价。     

Cultural Origin and Minority Shareholder Expropriation: Historical Evidence

Can culture explain regional differences in minority shareholder expropriation? Examining regional variation in China, we document that the influence of historical Confucian values persists, despite decades of political movements clamping down on these values, and that these values reduce minority shareholder expropriation in local public firms. The effect on minority shareholder expropriation, in part, operates through the establishment of oversight mechanisms (i.e., greater financial reporting quality and dividend payouts) that constrain expropriation. The findings have important implications for understanding the origins of enduring regional differences in minority shareholder expropriation and capital market development.     

Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects

Hidden Markov models have been applied in many different fields, including econometrics and finance. However, the lion's share of the investigated models concerns Markovian mixtures of Gaussian distributions. We present an extension to conditional t-distributions, including models with unequal distribution types in different states. It is shown that the extended models, on the one hand, reproduce various stylized facts of daily returns better than the common Gaussian model. On the other hand, robustness to outliers and persistence of the visited states increases significantly.     

On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks

The role of structural breaks in long spans of ex-post real interest rates for 10 industrialized countries is studied. First, the persistence of the real interest is assessed with newly proposed low-frequency tests of Müller and Watson (2008). Second, the test of Leybourne et al. (2007) for a change in persistence of a time series is applied to the real interest rate. The results show that real interest rates over the full sample period do not fit a covariance-stationary or unit-root model, nor a fractionally integrated, near-unit-root or local-level model. Instead, the persistence of real rates changes over time and there are periods when the real rate is covariance-stationary and other periods when it follows a unit-root process.     

Random Walks in World Money Rates

Interest rate changes in major industrialized countries are examined and found to exhibit significant deviations from random walks. When measured over short horizons, interest rate changes demonstrate significant negative serial correlation. As the time horizon is extended, the negative dependencies decline and interest rate changes approach random walks. In general, the evidence suggests that short-term interest rate changes in major industrialized countries follow a mean-reverting process.     

Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries

What is the effect of shocks to the terms of trade on a country's current account position? The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect predicts that an adverse shock to the terms of trade will worsen the current account balance; in contrast, the prediction of intertemporal models of the current account is dependent on the duration of the shock. This paper examines several features of the terms of trade series of five OECD countries, and the relationship between terms of trade shocks and the current account balance. Median shocks to the terms of trade are found to be highly persistent, yet with a large transitory component, and to account for only a small share of the variability of current account balances in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In contrast, terms of trade shocks are found to account for a relatively large proportion of the variability of current account balances in Australia and New Zealand.

     

经济活动中"同一性"逻辑思维探究

在经济活动中运用"同一性"逻辑思维包括:在经济交往中要遵守同一律,保证思维的确定性和一贯性;还要运用辩证同一的思维方法认识经济交往中的主体和客体,积极利用同一性的作用,发挥企业优势品牌的效用,扩充企业的规模和产品,搞好企业之间的并购与合作。     

Time‐Varying Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Evidence on its Persistence and on Currency Spillovers

We examine empirically the volatility of four major US dollar spot exchange rates using intraday data over 40 trading days. Using multivariate stochastic volatility models, we investigate the degree of persistence of exchange rate volatility for data sampled at different frequencies and the role of volatility spillovers across exchange rates. We find that the noise component of volatility 'aggregates out' very quickly, being dominated by the more persistent component of volatility for data sampled at 15–minute or lower frequencies. Our results also suggest that exchange rate volatility is very persistent and that cross–currency spillovers are small.