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951.
Charles Udale 《The Economic history review》2023,76(1):118-144
We know the policy of quarantining plague victims and their families together within their households entailed considerable costs and controversy in early modern Europe. Less clear is the extent to which the authorities implemented the policy in the face of this. This paper presents a novel approach to the measurement of enforcement which relies on linking deceased individuals listed in parish registers into household groups and then measuring changes in within-household mortality between parishes and epidemics. This provides a more complete assessment of the scale of implementation than would be possible using documentary sources alone. Measuring within-household mortality allows us to understand patterns of quarantine enforcement in settlements across early modern Europe. Here the focus is restricted to three epidemics that occurred in Bristol – one of England's most populous and prosperous cities. The analysis reveals household quarantine was enforced in 1603–4 with unprecedented vigour. The effects of quarantine are particularly pronounced in the affluent parishes where elite residence was highest. Greater evidence for enforcement is explained by greater elite oversight and control, as well as their desire to protect their own households. The scale of the impact is shocking. Household quarantine could double within household mortality. 相似文献
952.
We construct an early warning indicator for household debt risk by analyzing the relationship between household debt and certain important macroeconomic determinants using a simple deep learning approach. A precise and informative indicator can help inform economic policies, especially in light of the recent growth in the ratio of household debt to income. Although several studies have analyzed the determinants of the household debt crisis, very few have examined early warning indicators for household debt risk. Some studies suggest that a situation can be regarded as a crisis if the household debt ratio is greater than 50% or 85%. However, as the household debt ratio in Korea is already over this threshold, this criterion is neither informative nor useful. Accordingly, we propose a transformed index that addresses long-term memory characteristics. Moreover, five categories for the degree of household debt crisis are considered instead of the binary variable that has been frequently used in previous studies. Furthermore, we use a well-known deep learning approach to find a non-linear relationship between crisis indices and many factors. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed early warning indicator explains the household debt crisis quite well. 相似文献
953.