Purchasing Power Parity under Regime Shifts: An Application to Asian Countries*

This paper re‐examines the long‐run purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship for nine Asian countries relative to the USA and Japan during a period containing significant structural breaks. The relevance of considering structural breaks in PPP tests is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. (2000) procedure that allows for up to two pre‐determined structural breaks. Using conventional tests without considering breaks, one is able to reject the null of no cointegration for only four countries. The Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of allowing for structural breaks and provides strong support for long‐run PPP for all the countries, regardless of the base country, except in the case of the Philippines vis‐à‐vis Japan. The Hansen–Johansen parameter constancy test indicates stability for all the countries except the Philippines relative to the USA and Malaysia relative to Japan.     

安徽省科技投入与经济增长关系的计量分析

随着科学技术的快速发展,科技投入对经济增长的作用越来越明显。本文依据安徽省1992—2009年间科技投入与经济增长的有关数据变量,应用SPSS、Eviews等软件研究安徽省科技投入与经济增长两指标之间的互动关系,建立了反映两者长期协整关系的模型,并对两序列进行格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明：安徽省科技投入与经济增长间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且两者间存在单项因果关系。最后根据研究结果,提出一些建议。     

中国对外贸易与城镇失业关系的实证分析

本文利用1978～2005年的年度数据,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和多变量Granger因果关系检验方法,检验了我国出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间的关系。实证分析结果表明,出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在两个方向的Granger因果关系:进口增长是出口增长的原因;进口增长是城镇失业增加的原因,我国在制订贸易政策与就业政策时须注意三者的协调,以促进经济的增长。     

广西产业结构与经济增长关系的协整研究

运用协整理论对广西1978～2007年间的数据进行分析表明:广西经济增长与产业结构之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,经济增长与第二、三产业的发展相互促进,广西经济增长与第二、三产业结构之间互为双向因果关系,广西经济增长与第二、三产业产出在GDP中的比重成同向变动关系,而与第一产业产出在GDP中的比重成反向变动关系;第三产业产出对GDP的影响最大。     

我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) theory for 20 African countries using panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Omay (2014), through the sequential panel selection method of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009). While standard panel unit root tests fail to support the PPP, the empirical results from panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test do support the PPP. However, additional tests reveal that support in all 20 African countries is mostly due to stationarity of the real effective exchange rates of Ghana and Rwanda where the adjustment process towards equilibrium is nonlinear and asymmetric.     

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

地震灾区某职工住宿楼项目加固设计

本工程所在区域震感极为强烈,建筑物及生产设施遭受破坏较严重,致使该建筑物出现很多裂缝。文章介绍了粘贴芳玻韧布和混凝土修补2种常见的加固处理方案,指出灵活地运用检测、加固方法,可以取得事半功倍的效果。     

电涡流缓速器试验台组合飞轮的研究与设计

本文对汽车制动过程进行分析,确定了要正确模拟汽车制动过程惯性力所需的各转动部分的转动惯量,提出了用飞轮组、电机和转动轴共同模拟的多分流加载方法。并对组合飞轮的进行优化设计和检测,使电涡流缓速器试验台能有效地模拟不同转动惯量的汽车。     

FPGA在某型防空导弹发射机构测试中的应用

论文针对某新型防空导弹发射机构测试系统测试时间长、效率低、体积大、是专属检测设备等问题,设计了一种新型的基于FPGA的发射机构测试系统,并以信噪比检测为例,分析了系统的功能实现。该设计充分利用了FPGA的特点,测试系统体积小、可扩展性好,测试速度快、效率高。