国家效用、非国有制经济发展和前后阶段改革的划分

非国有经济与国有经济的相时比重不仅影响经济体制改革的成败,也决定作为现代经济核心的金融由计划向市场的转变,也制约着政治体制改革.根据非国有经济与国有经济的相对比重,可以2004～2005年为界,将中国的改革划分为前后两个阶段.     

我国劳动力流动的动态和预期经济效应分析

劳动力流动是市场机制发挥配置资源作用的表现。从静态分析看,劳动力流动调剂了供需双方缺口,提高了整个社会福利水平。从动态角度看,我国的中心城市和经济先发展地区具有吸引资金、技术和知识资本的优越条件,决定着劳动力流动方向,而且因累积循环作用,引起回波效应大于扩散效     

Risk Behaviours and Grazing Land Management: A Framed Field Experiment and Linkages to Range Land Condition

We use a framed field experiment considering hypothetical stocking rate decisions made by grazing enterprise managers and estimate non‐linear multinomial logit models for a range of nested non‐expected utility and expected utility models. The risk and decision‐bias parameters for five models estimated for individual responses are shown to be significantly related to land condition but in ways which suggest behavioural aspects of decision making are critical in understanding land management and stocking rate decisions. Our results show that individual heterogeneity in decision making amongst farming groups is likely to be a significant source of variation in farming intensity and technology adoption decisions. This heterogeneity does not appear to be a reflection of socio‐demographic characteristics. Furthermore, decision functions appear to be biased toward selection of simpler representative functions (e.g. Expected Utility) for sample averages. This suggests that experimental findings that Expected Utility is representative for actual decisions may be due to sample averaging rather than reflect actual behaviour.     

Utility of university curricula in contemporary times: Perspectives of employers in the Cape Coast Metropolis

The majority of studies and reports on university education in Africa have focused mainly on issues related to access, quality, teaching and learning environment, and so on. Although these issues are undoubtedly critical, even more germane to the discourse is the desired utility of university education to society. The authors present the perspective of employers on their expectations from university graduates. The authors employed the qualitative research approach. Four financial institutions from the Cape Coast Metropolis were purposively sampled. An in-depth interview guide was employed for data collection, which was analyzed using thematic content analysis. The authors found that graduates are strong in theory but deficient in application of knowledge.     

证券投资风险预测的E-Bayes估计

本文给出了E-Bayes方法,以上海证券个股五粮液52个连续交易日的收盘价格为例,建立数学模型进行分析和预测,预测结果与市场实际值相当吻合。与灰色系统理论中的GM（1,1）预测模型相比,本文提出的方法预测的精度更高,计算量小。不仅适用于经济系统的分析与预测,也适用于其它系统的分析与预测。     

Optimal growth and impatience: A phase diagram analysis

When the time preference exhibits decreasing marginal impatience, the rate at which the discount function decreases plays a central role in the stability analysis. This paper shows that if the discount function is strictly decreasing, strictly convex and has a uniform bound on its first derivative, then the continuous-time, one-sector optimal growth problem has a unique steady state that exhibits the saddle-point property. Moreover, the phase diagram analysis is geometrically similar to the case of a constant discount rate. The proposed bounded slope assumption is inspired by and in direct contrast with Magill and Nishimura's "division of countries" example.     

基于企业家行为动机的中小企业群落式衍生

本文以嵊州领带产业集群中小企业群落式衍生为案例,分析了中小企业经营骨干辞职创办新企业的行为动机,综合考虑经济、风险态度、个人的主观偏好和其他社会性效用等不同的偏好对选择成为企业家的影响．提出企业家动机各因素对企业家活动的影响关系。     

Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

A strict expected multi-utility theorem

This paper integrates two key approaches to the representation of incomplete preferences over lotteries. The main result strengthens the conclusion of the expected multi-utility theorem in Dubra, Maccheroni, and Ok (2004) by ensuring that all utility indices involved are Aumann utilities (i.e., yield a strictly increasing expectation). The advantages of the method are demonstrated by parametrizing maximal elements and by providing a novel characterization of Aumann utilities.     

Regulated absolute ruin problem with interest structure and linear dividend barrier

The uncontrolled surplus of an insurance company is a classical risk model. Now the risk model includes three features, namely debit interest, short-term and long-term invested interest, and linear dividend barrier. In this paper, the PDMP method and martingales are used for solvency studies in the risk model under regulation of minimum cash requirement. The integro-differential equations are derived for the expected discounted dividends under absolute ruin. In the case of exponential claim amounts, explicit expressions are obtained, as well as the numerical illustrations and their economic interpretation.