Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

LABOUR SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

Abstract. Economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research. Despite advances in technique. it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes. It may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding, and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge. But rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data. In short, econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation, as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use. This paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data.
After briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate, we describe the early 'first generation' research (circa 1970), which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables, measurement errors, truncation and selectivity bias, and non linear budget constraints. 'Second generation' research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties, and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed, including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured.     

Experiments in Environmental Economics and Some Close Relatives

Abstract.  It is not only the great number of papers written on environment economics that make it worth dealing with this special branch of experimental research, but the environmental problem in all its facets seems to serve as a catalyst for identifying some methodological problems of the experimental method. For this reason, we will not only try to give an overview of recent experiments in environmental economics but also add some thoughts on the methodological implications of this work. We identify three direct connecting factors for the experimental method and environmental economics. First, social dilemmas are, in many cases, at the core of environmental problems. Experiments are able to test theoretical hypotheses for individual behavior in such social dilemma situations. The second connecting factor comes from the field of applied experimental work and can be characterized as the testbedding of institutional arrangements for the solution of environmental problems. The last direct application of experimental methods to environmental economics concerns the individual evaluation of environmental resources.     

Microcredit in Palestine (1995–2008): A business history perspective

This article analyses the development and functioning of the microcredit industry in Palestine in the period between its establishment as a partially autonomous political entity (1994) and the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip (2008). The article shows how, despite the increase in potential demand for microcredit due to the deterioration of the economic environment, the growth of the sector has been below expectation. One of the most important causes of this phenomenon has been the reluctance to lend resulting from the growing risk of late or no repayment of loans. Using original data from one microcredit institution (Arab Centre for Agricultural Development) and a quantitative approach, the article investigates the causes of this problem. Results show that the risk of late repayment was negatively correlated to the level of interest rate, to macroeconomic conditions, and to the age of the borrower while it was positively associated to the share of investment in the Gaza Strip, and to the size of loans.     

绿色混凝土市场存在及发展因素分析

混凝土及其主要组分水泥生产部门的二氧化碳排放量占全球人工二氧化碳总排放量的5%左右。低环境污染的绿色混凝土市场成为解决经济与环境矛盾的重要方法。除了技术上的创新以外,信息经济学对于不对称信息的研究模型揭示了绿色水泥混凝土市场得以存在并发展的真正原因。由此,为该市场进一步的发展提供了值得借鉴的经济学手段。     

文化如何成为经济学研究的对象

经济学研究对象经历了从纯客观物质变量向客观物质与主观精神结合的变量以至最终向纯主观精神变量逐次递进的扩展过程。文化精神通过影响经济行为主体的行为选择从而对微观经济运行和宏观经济发展产生重要影响。作为一种主观精神要素,文化精神曾经长期被主流经济学排斥在经验实证理论体系之外。经过诺斯、舒尔茨等人搭建的曲折理论通道,文化精神最终进入了经济学研究的核心概念范式集,成为经济学家分析不同国家、区域经济发展差异存在原因的不可或缺的一个基本理论视角。文化精神对经济的作用则主要表现为导向作用、激励作用、规约作用三个方面。     

Back to Buchanan? Explorations of welfare and subjectivism in behavioral economics

In light of behavioral findings regarding inconsistent individual decision-making, economists have begun to re-conceptualize the notion of welfare. One prominent account is the preference purification approach (PP), which attempts to reconstruct preferences from choice data based on a normative understanding of neoclassical rationality. Using Buchanan’s notion of creative choice, this paper criticizes PP’s epistemic, ontological, and psychological assumptions. It identifies PP as a static position that assumes the satisfaction of given ‘true preferences’ as the normative standard for welfare. However, following Buchanan, choice should be understood dynamically as a process whereby preferences constantly regenerate. Accordingly, the meaning of welfare emerges from an ongoing quest for individual self-constitution. If this holds true, then rationality axioms cannot serve as a priori normative standards. Instead, creative imagination and learning processes must remain central to any understanding of welfare in economics.     

浅论教育的经济效益

宏观教育学形成于20世纪60年代,宏观教育学对各国教育决策和教育实践产生了重大影响.宏观教育学直接研究教育的基础性、全面性、前瞻性、知识产生与社会经济的相互作用及其规律.集中论述教育的经济效益是宏观教育经济学的核心概念,从这一理论的兴起、发展和成熟三个阶段论述宏观教育经济学的研究发展过程,并就宏观教育经济学的研究对象进行全面阐述.而对教育经济效益的定义、内容及特性,以及教育投资对经济增长的计算方法做了剖析和比较.     

中欧关系中的香港因素探析

在一个半世纪的英殖民统治时期．香港就逐渐成为中国与欧洲乃至西方交流的一座桥梁。自1997年主权回归后。香港在“一国两制”下的特殊地位以及欧盟对香港经济政治事务的密切关注使其在中欧关系中发挥着独特的影响。香港既可以成为中欧之间密切经贸联系的桥梁和纽带,也可能因其内部政治事务的发展而对中欧关系构成挑战。为此,我们在战略性地推动香港在中欧关系中的“门户”作用的同时,也不能忽视外来势力对中国主权与安全构成的潜在威胁。