地方政府债务对工业资本配置效率的非线性影响效应——基于动态面板平滑转换回归PSTR模型的检验

经济新常态下,提高工业资本等要素配置效率是实现经济向高质量增长转变的必然要求。本文在政府主导、投资驱动的工业发展模式下,结合地方债务压力和金融发展差异门限变量,在非线性框架下运用动态面板平滑转换回归模型实证检验地方债务规模与工业资本配置效率的渐进演变关系。研究发现,适度的地方债务规模有助于提高资本配置效率,但随着债务压力增加,举债对资本配置的正效应逐步减弱并产生负效应。究其原因,适度举债能补齐工业基础设施短板,压低土地成本,对工业发展产生杠杆效应,从而提高资本配置效率;但过度举债推升财政风险,占用信贷资源并强化企业融资约束,造成资本配置低效率。此外,研究发现,地方信贷规模提升,能缓解举债的融资约束,促进工业行业间的资本流动;而工业金融深化程度提高,能增强市场竞争机制在要素配置中的作用,缓解举债造成投资错配,从而增强资本配置效率。以上分析结果表明,地方政府举债应更理性、适度、规范。     

Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the question of potential causality between foreign debt and domestic savings within the context of developing countries. The literature provides evidence insofar as foreign debt and development is concerned, but little attention has been given so far to internal potential for capital formation. We provide a theoretical framework and test its relevance by using 1975–2004 data for two groups of countries: sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America with the Caribbean. With the use of instrumental variables we find that foreign debt impacts negatively on domestic savings, especially in the long run. The results are not susceptible to the choice of countries or outliers. However, the relationship between foreign debt and savings seems to depend on debt accumulation gaining significance only after surpassing a country's specific threshold.

RESUMEN. Este estudio aborda el tema de la causalidad potencial que existe entre la deuda externa y el ahorro interno en el ámbito de los países en desarrollo. La literatura existente contiene pruebas sobre la deuda externa y el desarrollo pero, hasta el momento, ha dedicado poca atención a todo lo concerniente al potencial doméstico para la formación de capital (capitalización). Hemos trazado un marco teórico y puesto a prueba su relevancia usando datos del período 1975–2004 para dos grupos de países: África subsahariana y Latinoamérica incluyendo El Caribe. Los instrumentos variables utilizados nos permitieron encontrar el impacto negativo que la deuda externa ejerce sobre el ahorro interno, especialmente a largo plazo. Estos resultados no son susceptibles a la selección de países específicos o aislados. No obstante, la relación entre la deuda externa y el ahorro parece depender de la acumulación de la deuda, adquiriendo más significado solo después de pasar el umbral específico de un país.

RESUMO. Este estudo aborda a questão da causalidade possível entre o débito estrangeiro e a poupança interna no contexto dos países em desenvolvimento. A literatura apresenta evidências sobre débito externo e desenvolvimento, mas há pouca informação em relação ao potencial interno para a formação de capital. Mostramos uma estrutura teórica e testamos a sua relevância, utilizando dados de 1975 até 2004 para dois grupos de países: a África Subsaariana e a América Latina com o Caribe. Com a ajuda das variáveis instrumentais, descobrimos um impacto negativo do débito estrangeiro sobre a poupança interna, especialmente a longo prazo. Os resultados não são suscetíveis à escolha de países ou de dados atípicos (outliers). A relação entre débito externo e poupança, entretanto, parece depender do acúmulo do débito, tornando-se importante, apenas no caso de ultrapassar um limiar específico do país.     

阿根廷债务重组：现实困局与制度反思

自2001年主权债务违约后,阿根廷经历了2005年和2010年两次债务互换,但是,由于少数“钉子户”债权人的反对并诉诸司法程序,阿根廷债务重组陷入再次违约的重大风险。回顾阿根廷债务重组的过程以及以对冲基金为主的少数债权人对阿根廷的诉讼,可以清晰地看出阿根廷主权债务重组困境是由阿根廷自身非审慎性的债务重组机制、美国行为的双重标准以及全球主权债务重组基础机制缺失等造成的。随着重债富国问题的出现,主权债务重组中的国内外司法管辖权、私人部门与公共部门参与、集体行动条款与同等权益条款,以及合同法与法定机制等争论更加凸显,建立一个全球性主权债务重组机制是国际金融体系稳定的基础任务。     

金融危机下人民币汇率变动对外贸的影响——以山东青岛为例

自人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率波幅明显增大,并呈现持续升值的势头,金融危机期间,人民币汇率波动更加频繁,势必对我国外贸造成一定程度的影响。以青岛进行实例分析,采取金融危机期间人民币汇率变动与青岛进出口贸易的数据建立回归模型,在分析人民币汇率变动的趋势与青岛对外贸易总体现状的基础上,对金融危机下人民币汇率变动对青岛外贸的影响进行了回归分析,得出金融危机下人民币汇率变动对青岛进口影响不显著,而对青岛出口影响较大的结论,并根据分析提出应对危机和发展对外贸易的政策建议。     

Strategic Debt in Vertical Relations: Evidence from Franchising

In this paper, we examine the strategic use of debt in franchise organizations. We focus on both the franchisee's and the franchisor's capital structures. The primary goal of this study is to examine whether franchisors impose limits on franchisees’ debt levels to be able to increase their own leverage. We find that the franchisor's leverage is significantly related to the maximum leverage allowed for the franchisee. As the franchisor sets an upper limit on the franchisee's debt ratio, the franchisor can raise more debt and therefore seizes tax benefits, since interest payments are tax deductible. We find that this effect is stronger in chains with larger fractions of franchised outlets.     

Closing the Ledger

Using a unique, hand‐collected final dataset of 57 management buy‐outs in distress, this paper analyses the determinants of bankruptcy costs under the UK's receivership regime. We show that the direct costs of receivership consume a significant percentage of the receivership proceeds, with mean receivership costs equal to 30% of receivership proceeds. Importantly we find that while the average length of receivership was 3.0 years, 95% of repayments are made on average within 1.9 years. Our findings do not support the argument that multiple lenders create inefficiencies resulting in significantly lower secured creditor recovery rates. However, when there are multiple secured lenders, the senior secured lender gains at the expense of other secured creditors. We find that receivership costs are positively related to the proportion of secured debt repaid and that, consistent with the presence of a scale effect, the relative significance of receivership costs declines as firm size grows. Receiverships last longer the larger the amount of debt owed to the secured lenders.     

Debt and Equity Characteristics of Mandatorily Redeemable Preferred Stock

Abstract. This study examines whether mandatorily redeemable preferred stock (MRPS) is priced more like debt or equity by (1) investigating its debt and equity characteristics and (2) specifying conditions under which one characteristic would dominate the other. Based on a sample of 113 nonconvertible MRPS issued during 1970 to 1990, our results are consistent with the view that MRPS has both debt and equity characteristics. The debt (equity) feature is more pronounced among nonutility (utility) issues. Within the utility group, we find high (low) rated MRPS issues to be more debt (equity) like. Our results appear to support current MRPS disclosure rules.     

高新技术企业资产证券化问题研究

我国高新技术企业适合证券化的资产有出口贸易应收款和知识产权转让收入。出口贸易应收款的证券化宜走海外模式，在海外市场发行资产支持证券；而知识产权转让收入的证券化宜走国内模式，在国内市场发行资产支持证券。     

美元汇率变动对中国经济影响分析

美元汇率变动是影响中国经济发展的一个重要外部原因。由于2005年之前人民币实施的是钉住美元的固定汇率制度,美元贬值加大了人民币升值的压力,使得货币政策陷于两难境地。实证分析表明,美元汇率变动对中国进出口、利用外资、物价水平和就业具有明显的影响。2005年美元汇率升值,中国贸易收支顺差将缩小。美元企稳将促进中国稳定利用外资,并对抑制国内生产资料价格上涨将起到积极的作用,从而有利于我国的宏观经济调控。但今年美元的升值走势将不利于我国就业状况的改善。     

集群——国外家具产业发展的经验与启示

根据国外家具产业的发展经验，集群是家具产业发展的共同选择之一。究其原因，与家具产业的特性密切相关：家具产业的发展必须顺应潮流而动，并需要众多配套供应和相关服务，对技术要求也越来越高。要推动我国家具产业发展，有必要借鉴国外家具产业发展的经验，加大对家具产业集群的扶持力度，以集群作为家具产业发展战略的重点之一。由此，政府要致力于制度和环境的改善，为集群的形成和良性发展创造有利的外部环境和健康的内部机制；要充分发挥龙头企业的“羊群效应”，鼓励和推动集群内企业的分工与协作；并始终把创新作为集群保持长久竞争力的不变法则。